By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns
Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend.
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco email@example.com.For service, email Beverly Owen firstname.lastname@example.org. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Very few breakouts as stock market tries to stabilize after a big drop. TTD sees chances for a trading range to develop, especially since February tends to be weak for bulls. One should be watchful of all positions and honor your stop strategy. Both daily and weekly market indicators are bearish.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ACXM - AVERAGE
ACXM, based in Little Rock, Ark., provides global interactive marketing services. Annual revenues: $1.1 billion. ACXM's stock breaks out from a six-week base today with a pickup in volume. The stock is one of only two TTD spotted today as a breakout following the stock market's big selloff last week. So far today ACXM is trading 571,714 shares. Its average daily volume is 414,000 shares.
TTD highlighted ACXM as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Monday
ACXM's 5-minute chart shows the stock breaking out with a gap move in the morning.
The stock was upgraded by Baird with a $20 price target. After the early move, ACXM faded to just slightly below the breakpoint line. However, it then rallied to stamp the day as a breakout.
ACXM will report earnings for the fourth quarter on Thursday January 28.
ACXM's tape action shows the big block trades the past few sessions.
One can see the price climbing from $14.29 to $14.68. The key trade was this morning when a big block of 19,393 shares crossed at $14.68. That showed good institutional buying interest.
ACXM assists clients with multichannel marketing solutions for campaign management across multimedia channels.
They include personalized e-mail, targeted Website, banner and other Web advertisements, search engines, mobile devices, digital television and direct mail/
ACXM is well positioned to benefit from an up turn in the economy.
ACXM's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 70% the past 12 months compared with a 30% rise in the S&P 500 index.
ACXM's long-term chart shows the stock on the rebound after the bear market. It tends to do well during bull market. It rose sharply in the bull market of 2000 and the one from 2003 to 2007.
ACXM's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 8 to 14 the past few months. The base set up was good, although it is a bit short and does not show a contraction in volume in the late stages of the base. So, one does need to be watchful of the stock.
The base was set up above the 50-day moving average line, which is very bullish. That says the stock is in a sharp up trend.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is neutral.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) lags. It should be at a new peak. That shows that robust buying is not taking place.
ACXM's earnings should be the fundamental driver for the stock.
ACXM's earnings for the fiscal year ending March 30, 2010 should soar 143% to 49 cents a share from 20 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 30.
TTD sees that as reasonable given the earnings outlook. Going out to fiscal 2011, the Street is forecasting a 39% gain in net to 68 cents a share from the anticipated 49 cents a year ago.
Net for the upcoming fiscal third quarter - to be reported this week - are projected to come in at 15 cents a share. Comparable year ago numbers were not available. The highest estimate on the Street is at 17 cents a share. ACXM tends to meet or slightly exceed by 1 to 3 cents a share the consensus estimate.
Strategy Opinion: ACXM's breakout ahead of its earnings could be a good bullish sign. TTD is targeting ACXM for a move to 19 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective can be placed near 13.50. TTD rates ACXM a good intermediate-term play with potential to surprise on the upside.
Sponsorship: Bullish. Some big funds have been large buyers of the stock recently. The largest fund holder is American Funds New Economy Fund with a 5.9% stake. The 3-star rated fund was a recent buyer of 4.7 million shares. Also, 4-star rated Fidelity Advisor Small Cap Fund purchased 3.5 million shares recently. It has a 4.5% stake. ACXM has 79 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bullish. Insiders were light buyers of the stock recently around $12. Four analysts follow the stock, one has a buy, up from none three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Acxiom Corp - (ACXM)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CTRN - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today after last week's sharp drop in the stock market. Market indicators have become more favorable for bears than in the past few months. TTD's feature on Friday was Harley Davidson Inc. (HOG) -$23.85, down $1.73. Today the stock is down to $23.44
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
GAME is an online game company. Annual revenues: $648 million. GAME's stock falls sharply today after the company said its CEO Diana Li resigned. The stocks technical breakdown comes with heavy volume. So far today, GAME is trading 3.4 million shares, triple its normal daily volume of 1.1 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
GAME's stock fell sharply at the opening. It had a quick bounce up, but then trended lower hitting a low of 8.85 around noon. It then trended sideways the rest of the day unable to stage a rally.
GAME"s tape action shows the recent big blocks. One can see the price for the blocks working its way down from $10.06 to $9.05. The blocks indicating steady institutional selling pressure.
GAME said Ms. Li resigned to pursue other interests.
The company’s online game business includes the business of developing, operating and licensing its massively multi-player online role-playing games (MMORPGs) and advanced casual games.
Advanced casual games, which are a sub-category of casual games, possess certain elements of MMORPGs, including a story line, graphics, availability of virtual items and interactions among game players.
GAME develops and sources an array of game content through multiple channels, including in-house development, licensing, investment and acquisition, co-development and co-operation. It operates 18 MMORPGs and 11 advanced casual games. In July 2009, the Company acquired Chengdu Simo Technology Co., Ltd., an online game company.
This year, analysts forecast an 18% increase in GAME's net to 89 cents a share from 75 cents a year ago.
GAME's chart shows the break below key support. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is bearish. A push to a new all-time low could bring in more selling.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting GAME for a decline to 6.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 10.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)