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Ticker Tape Digest

Monday - January 26, 2009


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


Total Buy Breakouts today - 0

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side -  No breakouts today. Bulls remain watchful and patient. TTD is spotting some stocks setting up for a breakout. The Dow and Nasdaq are now at the low end of their trading ranges. There could be a rally across the trading range. The CCI index on the daily charts has turned up.

(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Unfavorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish


Today's Feature Stock

(There were no breakouts today. So, TTD features a stock near its breakpoint)

Vascular Solutions Inc. (VASC) - 9.15, up 0.63 - Breakpoint 9.60

Profits to Surge 38% in fiscal 2009, TTD Targets 85

                TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - VASC - ABOVE AVERAGE

   VASC, based in Minneapolis, Min., develops products that are used primarily by cardiologists and radiologists to treat patients with cardiovascular diseases. Annual revenues: $60 million. VASC is a small cap medical stock that is moving into position for a breakout from a base with upside resistance at $9.60. It is close to the breakout. TTD is drawn to the stock because of its strong earnings outlook and bullish tape action.

  VASC is trading 122,003 shares so far today. That is four times its normal daily volume of 31,000 shares. A look at TTD's daily chart shows an ideal volume pattern for a potential breakout stock.

  VASC ran up from around 6 to 9 back in late November and December. It peaked with big volume (see TTD's daily chart). The stock then showed contracting volume - typical for a base. Now it moves higher with a big expansion in volume. The technical set up is ideal for VASC to move higher.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows a block of 2,314 shares crossing in the morning on a nice up tick to $8.90 form its prior trade at $8.89. The block trades in the stock today were small. The tape action is nicely bullish for a thin issue.

 VASC makes several products used to control bleeding caused by various procedures that require an artery to be punctured for the insertion of a catheter, including Duett, D-Stat, D-Stat Dry, and D-Stat Radial.

 The firm produces most of its products in Minnesota and distributes them through a direct sales force and through international distributors.

  TTD's performance chart shows VASC's stock appreciating 50% the past 12 months. VASC easily outperformed the S&P 500 index which is down 39%. Notice too that VASC's stock rose sharply after the last two earnings reports.

 TTD's long-term chart shows VASC in a trading range between 8 and 12 the past three years.

  VASC's daily chart shows the stock rallying from 6.50 in November to 9.30. It is now in a well-formed flat base that showed a dry up of volume in recent sessions which is bullish.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator is bearish.

  However, the accumulation - distribution line which uses volume as a key component is strong bullish and trending higher. That shows there is subtle heavy buying in the stock.

  VASC is poised to show triple digit earnings growth the next two quarters which will also represent an acceleration in earnings growth. That is a very bullish fundamental development.

 Net for the fourth quarter should climb 300% and then in the first quarter of 2088 soar 767%.

  Net for the fourth quarter should come in at 12 cents a share, up from 3 cents a year ago. It will report net on Feb. 3 near the close. In the prior quarter sales rose 18% with strong profit margins. It showed good sales of its medical products.

  Net for the first quarter of 2009 is projected to climb to 9 cents a share from one cent a year ago.

  Overall, net for the year 2008 should leap 200% to 21 cents a share from 7 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  44 which is reasonable given the growth rate. Looking ahead to 2009, analysts expect an 81% gain in net to 39 cents a share from the anticipated 21 cents for 2008.

  Strategy Opinion: VASC is one of the best looking small cap stocks. TTD suggests entering with a stop buy at 9.60. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 12 within a few months if a breakout takes place. A protective stop can be placed near 8.60 after a breakout. TTD rates VASC an excellent intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.

  Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated DFA U.S.Micro Cap Fund with a 1% stake. It has held its position steady. A key holder is 5-star rated Gabelli Small Cap Growth Fund with a 0.53% stake. VASC has 15 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 750,000 shares.

  Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders were light sellers late last year. There has not been much buying. Three analysts follow the stock and all are bullish.



                     Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

  


TTD's Profile Rating
Vascular Solutions Inc. - (VASC)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term     YES
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term   YES  
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES    
Fund Sponsorship     YES
Total Score 12 0 2

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.

None


Charts of Breakout Stocks

None


TTD’s Feature Stock Under Accumulation

(Trading strategy: Purchase of these stocks is done when either the stock is still in a base, or has emerged and is acting very bullish. Purchase while a stock still is basing should be a scale-in strategy with the final buying to be done on a breakout from a base. Buying of these stocks when they are trending higher can be done aggressively.)


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 3

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.

Bear Side - Only a few breakdown stocks today. Bears be selective at this time. Market poised for near-term rally.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)


TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Conmed Corp. (CNMD) - 15.11, off 0.57

Profit to Drop 20% this year, TTD Sees Stock falling to 11

  CNMD, based in Utica, N.Y., produces disposable medical products and other related devices. Annual revenues: $750 million. CNMD's stock rolls over today and resumes its down trend. The past four months the stock has trended lower from a peak near 30. The company will show a steep drop in profits this year. TTD sees more on the downside. So far today, CNMD is trading 360,801 shares. Its average daily volume is 725,000 shares.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows a block of 8,583 shares crossing the tape late on Friday. The block went off at $15.69, a down tick from the prior trade at $15.72. The tape action showed institutional selling pressure.

   CNMD's products include disposable electrocardiogram electrodes, stabilization devices for intravenous therapy, electrodes for neuromuscular stimulation, single-use intravenous-fluid drip-rate-gravity controllers, wound-care products, and products used in medical telemetry.

 The company also makes surgical tools such as drills and saws. Its products are used in a variety of clinical settings, such as operating rooms, surgery centers, physicians' offices and hospitals.

  This year, analysts predict a 20% drop in earnings to $1.18 a share from an anticipated $1.47 a share for 2008. Net for the soon-to-be-reported fourth quarter of 2008 should be down 35% to 28 cents a share from 44 cents a year ago.

  The company is suffering from a drop in sales due to unfavorable foreign currency exchange fluctuations and lower than expected sales for capital equipment.

  TTD's daily chart shows the stock with a gap drop in early January when it forecast weak results. The stock's inability to rally and now the further breakdown makes the situation very bearish. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is bearish.

  TTD is targeting CNMD's stock for a decline to 11 within the next few months, or sooner.



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)