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Ticker Tape Digest

Tuesday - January 27, 2009


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


Total Buy Breakouts today - 0

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side -  No breakouts again today. Bulls remain watchful and patient. Some issues are turning up from what appears to be bottoming patterns. So, the tone of the market is a bit more bullish, but still vulnerable.

(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Unfavorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish


Today's Feature Stock

(There were no breakouts today. So, TTD features a stock near its breakpoint)

NCI Inc. (NCIT) - 31.84, up 1.67 - Breakpoint 33

Profits to Jump 37% in 2008, TTD Targets 41

                TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - NCIT - ABOVE AVERAGE

   NCIT, based in Reston, Va., provides services to help customers manage the movement, and manipulation of large amounts of data and information. Annual revenues: $377 million. NCIT is one of the leading stocks in the market now. It recently pushed out from a base at 30 and then formed a five-week base. TTD is picking up strong action in NCIT and we see good chances for a breakout to the upside. TTD suggests a stop buy at 33 to enter.

  TTD picked up no breakouts again today. However, there are several good stocks in position to move higher supported by strong earnings. NCIT is one of them. So far today, NCIT is trading a light 72,862 shares. Its average daily volume is 138,000 shares.

  The stock moved higher in the morning, trended sideways in the afternoon, and then late in the session turned higher again.

 TTD's clip of the tape shows some recent blocks that traded. Notice the ones for today are small. The good point is that the price for the blocks rose from $30 to $31.60. So, there is good institutional buying interest in the stock.

  NCIT serves the military and federal government, and corporate customers.

 The company provides systems management, information assurance, network engineering, and systems development and integration. Some of the specific services offered include: help desk services, intrusion detection, and disaster planning and recovery.

  TTD's performance and earnings chart of NCIT shows the stock appreciating 105% the past 12 months. It easily outperformed the S&P 500 index which tumbled 35% during the same time. One can see on the chart that the stock tends to move higher after reporting favorable quarterly earnings.

   TTD's long-term chart of NCIT shows the stock in a strong up trend having climbed from 10 in 2006 to 32 this year. That shows the stock is a leader. It is now in position to make a new high, which could bring in more buying.

  TTD's daily chart shows NCIT moving higher today and close to its breakpoint at $32.99. Notice the prior breakpoint was at $30.01. The stock pushed through that and bullishly used that level as support. That is good technical action.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a solid up trend. That shows the stock's recent advance is well supported by strong buying.

  This year, analysts project NCIT's earnings will climb 33% to $1.23 a share from 93 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 21 based on this year's net. TTD sees that as reasonable.

  Going out to 2009, the Street is looking for profits to rise 17% to $1.44 a share.

  NCIT has been getting a good flow of contracts. Revenue growth is running at 19%. The company received $200 million in new orders in the third quarter. It said many were from new customers.

  NCIT's net for the upcoming fourth quarter should be very strong. Analysts predict a 37% jump in net to 34 cents a share from 25 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 36 cents a share. TTD sees good chances for a mild upside surprise. The past three quarters, NCIT ha topped the consensus estimate by 2 cents a share.

  Looking out to the first quarter of this year, the Street is projecting a 22% gain in net to 33 cents a share from 27 cents a year ago.

  Strategy Opinion: NCIT is a leading stock with a strong earnings outlook. TTD suggests a stop buy at 32 to enter off its current base. If a breakout takes place, TTD is targeting NCIT for a move to 41 within a few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed at 30 after a breakout. That is tight. TTD rates NCIT an above average intermediate-term play because of its good earnings outlook and reasonable valuation.

 Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Neuberger Berman Genesis Fund with a 2.9% stake. Second is Fidelity Small Cap Fund Independence Fund, 3-star rated with a 2.8% stake. NCIT has 13 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 2.9 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Not available. Nine analysts follow NCIT, 6 have a buy, down from 7 three months ago.    



                     Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

  


TTD's Profile Rating
NCI Inc.  - (NCIT)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion   YES
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES    
Fund Sponsorship YES    
Total Score 13 0 1

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.

None


Charts of Breakout Stocks

None


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 5

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.

Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today. Market locked in a trading range. Bears be selective.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)


TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Avery Dennison Corp. (AVY) - 25.82, off 2.02

Profit Falls Sharply, TTD Targets AVY for A Drop to 20

  AVY, based in Pasadena, Ca., makes pressure-sensitive materials, office products, and merchandise tags and labels. Annual revenues: $6.9 billion. AVY's stock falls sharply today in heavy trading after the company reported a sharp drop in fourth quarter earnings. The break below key technical support opens the door for AVY's stock to move lower. So far today, AVY is trading 2.7 million shares, almost triple its normal daily volume of 1 million shares.

  TTD highlighted AVY as a short at our midsession show on the Web.

  Our clip of the tape shows a big block of 25,000 shares crossing the tape on a modest down tick to $24.80 from the prior trade at $24.83. The action indicated heavy institutional selling off the earnings news.

  The stock plunged at the opening, staged a modest rally around midday and then trended sideways in the afternoon.

 AVY also runs a specialty converting business that produces radio frequency identification inlays and labels. The company gets 60% of sales outside the U.S.

  AVY reported a big drop in fourth quarter earnings to 43 cents a share from 81 cents a year ago. It also said it will cut its workforce by 10%.

  This year, analysts forecast a 13% decline in net to $2.68 a share. For the upcoming first quarter, they see a 52% plunge in net to 39 cents a share from 81 cents a year ago

  TTD's daily chart shows AVY's recent decline form 50 to 25. The stock staged a rally to 34. However, it has since rolled over and undercut key support with expanding volume.

  TTD is targeting AVY for a decline to 20 for bears. The weak earnings outlook should result in more damage to the stock.



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)