By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Above Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Small number of breakouts today as stock market takes a bit hit. February generally a seasonally bearish months. Bulls watch all stops.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OPNT - ABOVE AVERAGE
OPNT, based in Bethesda, Md., produces software for managing applications and networks. Annual revenues: $126 million shares. OPNT's stock gaps higher and breaks out from a seven-week flat base today. The stock made its move in the morning after it reported strong profits for the fiscal third quarter ending December 31. So far today, OPNT is trading a heavy 561,166 shares, five times its normal daily volume of 90,400 shares.
TTD highlighted OPNT as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
OPNT's 10-minute chart shows the stock gapping higher and over its breakpoint in the morning.
The stock then backed off a bit as the stock market took a bit hit. The stock then lifted in the afternoon. It was a good showing considering the big drop in the stock market.
OPNT reported net for the fiscal fourth quarter ended Dec. 30 jumped to 19 cents a share from 11 cents a year ago. That topped the consensus estimate of 15 cents a share by a wide margin. The stock responded extremely bullish to the news.
TTD's clip shows the tape action in OPNT.
OPNT's block action shows the price climbing sharply from $24.94 a few days ago to a peak of $29.89 on Friday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 8,184 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $29,84. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $25.62 a few days ago.
The tape action was bullish considering the weakness in the stock market.
OPNT's software products address application performance management, network planning, engineering and operations, and network research and development.
OPNT differentiates itself from traditional providers of application and network management products by focusing on analytics and producing actionable results.
Traditional application and network management products focus on data collection and monitoring. These systems report on historical trends and the status of networks and systems. In August 2010, OPNT acquired DSAuditor product line from Embarcadero Technologies, Inc., a software company.
OPNT's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 140% the past 12 months compared with a 17% gain for the S&P 500 index. OPNT is a top performer.
OPNT's long-term chart shows the stock hitting a multi-year high. It has climbed from a bear market low of 7 to a peak of 29 most recently. It is in a strong up trend. The push to a multi-year high could well draw in more buying from aggressive investors.
OPNT's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 14 in August to 27. The stock then set up a flat base. It appeared to be weakening, but today rockets higher.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is about neutral.
The key is the accumulation - distribution line which showed a strong up trend and did not give any ground. That indicated that good buying was still taking place even while the stock was basing.
This fiscal year ending March of 2011, analyst are forecasting a 70% gain in net to 54 cents a share from 32 cents a share a year ago. The estimates could be bumped up. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 54.
Net for the upcoming fiscal fourth quarter ending March 30 is expected to rise 38% to 17 cents a share from 12 cents a year ago. The company is benefiting from strong revenues.
Looking ahead to fiscal 2012, the Street projects a 45% jump in net to 79 cents a share from the anticipated 54 cents for fiscal 2011.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting OPNT for a move to 37 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 27. TTD rates OPNT a good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund buyer recently was 4-star rated T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund which purchased 114,000 shares. The largest fund holder is T. Rowe Price Small Cap Stock Fund, 3-star rated, with a 3.2% stake. OPNT has
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers using stock options. They turned around and sold. The latest selling was at $26.08. Five analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, up from 2 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Opnet Technologies Inc. - (OPNT)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WLL - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TGP - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PTEN - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BEXP - ABOVE AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 17
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Breakdown list expands sharply today as stock market falls broadly and sharply. Bears become aggressive now. February is seasonally a bearish month. TTD's bear feature from Thursday was Greenhill & Co. (GHL) - 74, down 8.04. It is now at 72.43 and working well for bears.
List of Stocks To Sell or Short
DRIV, based in Eden Prairie, Mn., produces end-to-end global e-commerce and marketing solutions to a variety of companies. Annual revenues: $370 million. DRIV's stock gaps lower today on big volume after the company reported disappointing earnings for the fourth quarter. So far today, DRIV is trading 5.4 million shares, almost 10 times its normal daily volume of 564,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted DRIV as a short at our midsession show on the Web Friday.
The stock gapped lower in the morning touching 30.95. It then had a small bounce, but started to fade the rest of the day. The intrday tape action and price action was very bearish.
TTD's clip of the tape shows recent big blocks. a key bearish trade took place in the morning when 34,651 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $31.99. That was down from the prior block trade at $34.41. That showed an institutional urgency to sell.
DRIV reported net for the fourth quarter declined to 29 cents a share from 40 cents a year ago. The Street took the news very bearishly.
The company said net for the upcoming first quarter would be about 29 cents a share. The Street was looking for 31 cents a share. For the year, the company said it is forecasting $1.13 a share. That is below the consensus on the Street of $1.35 a share.
DRIV services include design, development and hosting of online stores and shopping carts, store merchandising and optimization, order management, export controls and management, tax compliance and fraud management.
DRIV's daily chart shows the stock with a gap drop on big volume. The news would appear to have come as a surprise since the stock did not show any prior weakness. That is good for bears.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DRIV for a decline to 26 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 33.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DRIV - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
Copyright - Ticker Tape Digest - 2011