By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list shows several stock with improving earnings. Flow of earnings reports will continued. Bulls be selective. Stock market rises sharply holding in trading range.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SKX - ABOVE AVERAGE
SKX, based near Los Angeles, makes footwear, especially sneakers, for men and women. Annual revenues: $2.3 billion. SKX's stock breaks out Thursday from a 10-week flat base. The move carries SKX close to its all-time high of 64.69. So far today, SKX is trading 718,374 shares. Its average daily volume 861,000 shares.
TTD highlighted SKX as a potential breakout recent. The company is poised to show strong earnings. Analysts say sales of the firm's sports shoes are strong because of the comfort of "memory foam."
SKX's 10-minute chart shows the stock breaking above its breakout line in the prior session. However, it then faded back.
Thursday, SKX fell back in the morning, but then came on in the afternoon participating in the stock market's rally.
The momentum carried the stock through its breakpoint convincingly. It hit an intraday high of 62.98 in the afternoon.
SXK's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks moving up from $61.72 in the morning to as high as $62.83 late in the day.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 6,622 shares crossed the tape at $62.33.
That was up from the prior block trade at $61.85 on 20,906 shares.
Then late in the day a massive block of 29,948 shares crossed at $62.76.
That was up from the prior block at $62.70 on 3,100 shares.
SKX makes Skechers-branded footwear for men, women and children. It also makes performance footwear for men and women under the Skechers GO brand name. One analysts said the firms footwear is in demand because of its use of memory-foam.
The company's consumers are style-conscious 12 to 24 year-old men and women. Its brands are sold through department and specialty stores, athletic and independent retailers, and boutiques as well as catalog and internet retailers.
SKX operates 122 concept stores, 131 factory outlet stores and 71 warehouse outlet stores in the United States, and 44 concept stores and 26 factory outlets internationally.
SKX's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 120% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.
SKX's long-term chart shows the stock with a very cyclical long-term pattern. SKX came public back in 1999 and traded around 10. It soared to 40 by early 2001. However, it then fell back to 5 in 2003.
The stock then climb back to 38 by early 2007. However, it once again fell back this time to 5 due in part by the sharp bear market.
Nevertheless the stock raced higher again rebounding strongly to 44.90 in 2019. Once again it fell back. This time to 11 by early 2012.
The past three years it has once again been driving higher. It recently hit an all-time high of $64.69 in September (see daily chart). It is now in position to make a new all-time high. That would be bullish.
SKX's breakout comes from a flat base with just modest volume. The stock did poke its nose out of the base in the prior session but pulled back.
Going back to September the stock was higher. So, there is some overhead resistance near term. It will be important for SKX to show good follow through action.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish and compliments the recent price action.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) lags. A look at the daily chart shows some of the largest volume days have come when the stock decline.
So, there was some subtle selling going on especially when the stock was trending down at certain points. Again, it will be important to see a follow through move higher.
For 2014, analysts are forecasting a 152% surge in SKX's earnings to $2.72 a share from $1.08 a year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 22 based on 2014 net. TTD sees that as attractive to value-growth investors.
Going out to 2015, the Street projects a 29% gain in net to $3.52 a share. Based on that projection, the stock has a p/e ratio of 17. That p/e is below the projected growth rate making SKE a good value play.
Net for the upcoming fourth quarter is expected to soar 55% to 43 cents a share from 28 cents the year before. The highest estimate on the Street is at 46 cents a share.
TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise.
The prior four quarters. SKX topped the consensus estimate by 16 cents a share, 27 cents, 28 cents and 11 cents. (see table)
Going out to the first quarter, net should jump 38% to 84 cents a share from 61 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting SKX for a move to 74 off this breakout. That is up from our prior target of 72. A protective stop can be placed near 59 after a breakout.
TTD rates SKX a very good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is the 5-star rated Fidelity Growth Company Fund with a 6.5% stake. It was a recent seller of 47,400 shares.
The largest fund buyer recently was the 4-star rated Vanguard Strategic Equity Fund which purchased 112,300 shares. It has a 1.5% stake.
SKX has 51.9 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 80% of the stock. Insiders own 14%
Insider Activity: Neutral. Just light selling around $60 recently. Currently, 8 analysts follow the stock, 7 have a buy, one has a sell. Three months ago, the sentiment was 6 buys and one sell. SKX has a book value of $20.75.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Skechers USA Inc. - (SKX)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HAR - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CMPR - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VAR - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TSCO - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 18
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Large short list today even as stock market rises sharply. Bears can be venturesome. TTD's short from Wednesday was Elizabeth Arden Inc. (RDEN) at 15.58. Today, RDEN has declined to 15.34.
TKR, based in North Canton, Ohio, makes bearish and specialty steel products. Annual revenues: $4.4 billion. TKR's stock falls sharply Thursday undercutting key technical support. The decline was linked to a forecast cut in earnings. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted TKR as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
TKR said projected earnings for 2015 would be $2.65 to $2.75 a share from operations. That is below Street estimates of $3.11 a share.
The stock fell sharply in the morning hitting an early session low of 38.08. The stock then lifted a bit but then drifted lower again. It finally fell to an intraday low of 37.65.
TKR then lifted slightly and trended sideways the rest of the day.
TKR's tape action shows the recent block trades.
TKR's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $41.11 a few sessions before to as low as $38 Thursday.
A key bearish trade came when a block of 23,200 shares crossed the tape at $38.70. That was down from the prior big block at $41.11 on 34,032 shares.
TKR makes anti-friction bearings. The company also produces custom-made steel products including precision steel components for automotive and industrial customers.
TKR's earnings for the upcoming first quarter of 2015 should fall 23% to 68 cents a share from 88 cents a year before.
TKR's daily chart shows the stock cutting below key support with expanding volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a down trend indicating clear selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TKR for a decline to 32 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 40.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TKR - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)