By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.
These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short.These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positionsboth as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market corrections
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Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 15
Stocks Screened- 8,200
Bull side - Good number of breakouts early in the day. Market kicks in strong rally in the afternoon.
Long-Term Environment for bulls: Favorable.
Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market Status (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
HOLX, based in Bedford, Ma., makes mammography and breast biopsy systems. Annual revenues: $462 million. HOLX drives powerfully out of its nine-month flat base today. The move was triggered by strong net for the fiscal first quarter ended Dec. 31. So far today, HOLX is trading 8.2 million shares, nine times its normal daily volume of 985,000 shares.
The stock got off to a good start. In the morning a big block of 100,000 shares crossed the tape on a nice up tick to $54.99 from the prior trade at $54.85
TTD highlighted the stock as a breakout at our midsession show on the web.
HOLX checked in with net for the fiscal first quarter of 30 cents a share, up sharply from 12 cents a year ago.
That topped the consensus estimate on the Street of 26 cents a share by a wide margin. The highest estimate was at 32 cents a share. HOLX said revenues for the quarter leaped 86% to $163 million from 88 million a year ago.
HOLX's mammography products include both film-based and digital systems, sold under the Lorad brand, as well as the workstations and computer-aided detection (CAD) systems to help with interpreting images.
The firm's additional products include X-ray and ultrasound bone densitometers, which measure bone density to diagnose and monitor metabolic bone diseases such as osteoporosis. The company markets its products to hospitals, radiologists, and drug firms worldwide through distributors and through a direct sales force.
The improvement in quarterly earnings primarily reflects the increase in product sales of Selenia(R) full-field digital mammography systems in the current quarter as compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2006. Included in the current quarter's results are the operations of AEG Elektrofotografie ("AEG"), acquired on May 2, 2006.
A look at TTD's daily chart shows the breakout and the widening of the spread for the day. (range from high to low). The widening of the spread is very bullish when coming on a breakout.
The stock's accumulation - distribution line hits a new high confirming the good action of the price of the stock. TTD's long-term chart of HOLX shows the powerful bull market the stock has been in for several years. The recent basing works fits well and sets up a good launch pad for the stock to move higher.
For the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, TTD is forecasting net at $1.30 a share, up 31% from the 99 cents a share a year ago. The stock sells with a price earnings ratio of 42. That would seem high, but the earnings growth has potential to accelerate making the valuation justified.
Looking ahead to fiscal 2008 ending in September, TTD sees potential for a 30% gain in net to $1.70 a share.
Strategy Opinion: HOLX is hot! TTD suggests a scale-in strategy. We are calling for the stock to advance to 65 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 50.
TTD rates HOLX a good intermediate-term play because of its strong earnings outlook and the good long-term pattern of the price of the stock.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The top fund holder is 5-star rated Munder Mid-Cap Core Growth Fund with a 1.4% stake. It was a recent buyer of 7,000 shares. A key buyer recently was 4-star rated American Funds Smallcap Fund which purchased 150,000 shares. Also, 4-star rated Hartford Small Company Fund bought 258,000 shares.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers late last year around 48 using stock options. They turned around and sold. Seven analysts follow the stock, 5 have a buy, up sharply from 3 three months ago. Back in December, Banc of America Securities had a price target of 57. They are right on!
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Hologic Inc. (HOLX)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
(The breakout List gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.
(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Ticker Tape Digests Daily List of Stocks To Sell or Sell Short ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 9
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Good number of breakdowns given the marke rally today. Many breakdowns linked to disappointing earnings. Bears be selective.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
WBSN, based in San Diego, Ca., offers employee Internet management, Web filtering, and security software designed to help businesses improve and monitor employee productivity. Annual revenues: $148 million. WBSN falls sharply today on heavy volume after reporting lower earnings. The stock has been in a long-term down trend. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, WBSN is trading 5.2 million shares, seven times its normal daily volume of 845,000 shares.
The stock got off to a bearish start. Early in the morning, a big block of 45,000 shares crossed on a down tick to $21.48 from the prior trade at $21.49.
The company use the Websense Enterprise software to monitor and report employee Internet usage, block access to certain content, and set time periods for when access is available.
Clients such as McDonald's and the US Army subscribe to the hosted service, which checks for compliance against a proprietary database of more than 15 million Web sites in about 90 categories.
The company's earnings for the fourth quarter fell 30% to 17 cents a share from 23 cents a year ago. The Street was looking for earnings of 25 cents a share.
Technically, the stock has been trending lower. It had a burp rally a few days ago. However, today's gap move lower on big volume is very bearish. TTD is targeting the stock for a decline to 16 within the next few months. We see the stock as a good trading short for aggressive bears.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book Guide To High-Performance Investing.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)