Ticker Tape Digest

Thursday - January 31, 2019

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Ticker Tape Digest's Midsession Stock Market Video Show (Posted around 1 p.m. NYSE Time) Go to TTD Stock Market Show For - Thursday Go to Shows for Latest Week: Monday - Tuesday - Wednesday - Thursday -  Friday (Best with Cable or DSL - High quality - Windows Media Video)

Thursday - January 31, 2019

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  13

Quality of Breakouts -  Average.

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -   Large list of breakouts with some interesting plays for aggressive bulls.

Stock market  -  Stock market bullish in all time sectors and averages.

Comment -  Stock market a bit extended near-term but has potential to work higher. One needs to be watchful of any big selloffs.

See Latest Earnings Reports -  A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Thursday - DGII, GFF, VLO, YUMC, PFPT and MIXT.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks near breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.  They can also be bought soon after a follow through move, sometimes on an intraday pullback. )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Shopify Inc (SHOP) - 168.47, up 6.04 - Breakpoint 164.38

Net To Soar 117% This Year, TTD Targets 200

  SHOP, based in Ottawa, Canada, provides a cloud-based, multi-channel commerce platform designed for small and medium-sized businesses. Annual revenues: $673 million. SHOP drives higher Thursday and breaks out from its nine-week, cup-and-handle base.

  TTD sees more on the upside.

  So far today, SHOP is trading 1.7 million shares. Its average daily volume is 1.1 million shares.

  SHOP surged higher in the morning to clear its breakpoint line.

  The stock then extended its gain into the late afternoon when it reached an intraday high of $169.60.

   Tape Action

  SHOP's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $159.97 in the prior session to as high as $168.47.

  A key bullish trade came late on Wednesday when a block of 15,742 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $162.43.

  That was up from the prior block at $159.97 on 7,974 shares.   

  Business

 SHOP offers subscription solutions and merchant solutions.

The company's software is used by merchants to run their business across all of their sales channels, including Web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, social media storefronts and marketplaces.

The SHOP platform provides merchants with a single view of their business and customers.

  It helps them manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, ship orders, build customer relationships and leverage analytics and reporting all from one integrated back office.

  Charts

  SHOP's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 31% versus a 5% decline for the stock market.

  Insider activity was not available.

  SHOP's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2015 at $27.20. The stock based and then broke out in late 2016.

  The stock rose sharply hitting an all-time high of $176.56 in July of last year. It has since been basing, but breaks out on Thursday.    

  SHOP's daily chart shows the stock breaking out from a cup-and-handle base.

  The move comes with a widening of the daily price spread and expanding volume.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.

    Earnings Outlook

  The company will report 2018 results on February 12.

  The Street is forecasting a 94% surge in net for 2018 to 31 cents a share from the 16 cents the year before.

  The highest estimate on the Street is at 40 cents a share. It comes from 17 analysts.

  The fourth quarter should show a 40% gain in profits to 21 cents a share from 15 cents the year before.

  The highest estimate is at 29 cents a share. The company beat the consensus the past four quarters by 8 cents a share, 4 cents, 9 cents and 10 cents.

  Looking out to 2019, the Street is predicting a 117% jump in net to 68 cents a share from the anticipated 31 cents for 2018.

  Profits for the first quarter of 2019 are expected to leap 175% to 11 cents a share from the 4 cents the year before.

Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting SHOP for a move to $200 within the next few months, or sooner.

A protective stop can be placed near $160.

Intermediate-Term Rating:  Average.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bulls.

                                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish - SHOP scored some big gains off some of its recent breakouts.

Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish -  SHOP rose 6 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Extremely Bullish -  SHOP averaged a gain of 7% in February and a gain of 10.4% in March the past several years. 

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

 Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  -  Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today -  4

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.

Bear Side - Small list of shorts Thursday. Bears be conservative.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Net 1 UEPS Technologies Inc. (UEPS) - 2.85

Sees Quarterly Loss, TTD Sees Drop to 2

  UEPS, based in South Africa, provides payment solutions, transaction processing services and financial technology across many industries. Annual revenues: $613 million. UEPS's stock falls sharply Thursday and undercuts key technical support.

  The decline was triggered by a forecast of a loss for the quarter.

  TTD sees more on the downside. TTD highlighted UEPS as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.

  So far today, UEPS is trading a heavy 3.1 million shares, seven times its average daily volume of 417,000 shares.

  The company said it expects a loss for the fiscal second quarter ended in December. The Street was forecasting a profit of 14 cents a share, down from 39 cents the year before.

  Tape Action

  UEPS's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $4.63 a share to $2.85.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a massive block of 200,000 shares crossed the tape at $3.46.

  That was down sharply from the prior block at $4.63 on 12,134 shares late on Wednesday.

  Business

 UEPS provides transaction processing solutions that encompasses its smart card-based alternative payment system for the unbanked and under-banked people in developing economies and for mobile transactions.

 The company operates through three segments: South African transaction processing, International transaction processing, and Financial inclusion and applied technologies.

 Earnings:

  This fiscal year ending in June analysts have been forecasting a 68% drop in earnings to 65 cents a share from the $2 the year before.

  Currently, 2 analysts follow the stock.

Charts:  

  UEPS daily chart shows the stock gapping lower with big volume. The stock has been in a downtrend since reaching a peak near $12 last year.

  UEPS 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 75% versus a 5% loss for the stock market.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting UEPS for a decline to $2 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $3.15.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish.  -  rose 2 times after the past 4 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Bearish. -   UEPS averaged a decline of 0.1% in February and a decline of 3.7% in March the past several years.

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2019

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

 Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)