Aggressive Investors Bullish - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch List - Monday, February 1
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Aggressive Investors Bullish - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch List - Monday, February 1 |
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Aggressive Investor Bullish- Go To TTD Quick Trade Setups (win rate 70%) - Monday, February 1 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Very few breakout stocks today. Stock market moves higher to stem the recent drop. There is potential for a trading range to set up. However, bulls must remain cautious and watchful of all stops.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VCI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
VCI, based in Livonia, Mi., is a media and marketing firm. Annual revenues:
$2.3 billion. Today, VCI breaks out from a three-month, cup-and-handle base on a gap move to the upside. The move was triggered when the company said it will receive $500 million from News Corp. to settle a litigation case. The payout was large given the market cap of VCI.
TTD featured VCI as a stock to accumulation at $2099 in anticipation of a breakout early last week.
So far today, VCI is trading a hefty 4.8 million shares, eight times its normal daily volume of 586,000 shares.
TTD's 5-minute chart of VCI shows the stock gapping higher in the morning on big volume to cut across its breakpoint line decisively.
The stock took a small hit from profit taking, but then firmed up.
As TTD said last week, VCI's stock has "come back for the dead."
The issue was $40 back
in 2006. It was dragged down to $1.10 by early 2009 by the bear market. The
stock has since "come back to life." With earnings back
on track and with the cash windfall, TTD sees good chances for VCI to continue higher with the aid of a good economy.
VCI's tape action shows the big block trades. One can see the price jumping in the morning from $20.93 to $24.49. The key trade was a big block of 96,800 shares. That was big institutional buying.
VCI works with 15,000 advertisers. Its portfolio of products and services delivers value on a weekly basis to over 100 million shoppers across a multi-media platform, in the mailbox, in the newspaper, on the doorstep, in store and online.
The company operates through four segments: Shared Mail, Neighborhood Targeted, Free-standing Inserts , International, Digital Media & Services. In January 2008, the Company launched RedPlum, its consumer brand, across its portfolio of offerings.
Redplum.com was introduced in the marketplace on January 3, 2008, extending the Company’s print advertisers’ reach online and offering consumers national and local deals.
VCI's long-term chart shows the stock taking a nasty dive from 40 in 2005 to 1. It has since rebounded strongly and is now trending higher having hit 24.58 today.
VCI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock as one of the biggest winners in the stock market. It has appreciated 1,400% compared with a 25% gain for the S&P 500 index. 
VCI's daily chart shows a cup-and-handle base. The latest portion of the base shows the stock with a good "handle" structure. The gap move on the breakout is technically very bullish, even though it comes with a seemingly one-time bullish news event.
The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend and compliments the price pattern in a bullish way.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is now slightly bullish.
VCI's net for the upcoming fourth quarter should be very strong. Analysts forecast a profit of 56 cents a share, up sharply from 3 cents a year ago.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 58 cents a share. VCI has been erratic in reporting earnings above or below Street estimates. So, investors will have to be watchful.
For 2009, the Street is looking for a 328% surge in VCI's net to $1.41 a share from 33 cents a share a year ago. The stock sells with a price earnings ratio of 14 which is reasonable.
Looking out to 2010, analysts expect a 14% rise in net to $1.62 a share from the anticipated $1.41 a share in 2009. The earnings could get a boost from the big cash windfall and the resulting return on those proceeds.
Net for the first quarter should be very strong. The estimate is for a 78% gain to 32 cents a share from 18 cents a year ago.
VCI is benefiting from a pickup in the economy.
Strategy Opinion: TTD has lifted its target for VCI to 30 from 26 last week. A protective stop can be placed near 22. TTD rates VCI an above average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is Hotchkis and Wile Mid Cap Value Fund with a 5.3% stake. The 3-star rated fund was a recent buyer of 183,600 shares. A key buyer too was 4-star rated Vanguard Explorer Fund which picked up 208,814 shares. VCI has 48.2 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers in recent months. They turned around and sold. Currently, 5 analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, up sharply from 1 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Valassis Communications Inc. - (VCI) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 11 | 1 | 2 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - COLM - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ALV - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SHAW - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SBGI - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only a few breakdowns stocks today as stock market stages a bounce back. Bears remain alert for good short plays. Upside momentum for the market has dissipated. TTD's short from Friday was Theravnce Inc. (THRX) - 11.48, down 2.02. Today, THRX is at 10.48. It is working well for bears.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
BRCD, based in San Jose, Ca., is a supplier of data center networking solutions that help businesses connect and manage their information. Annual revenues: $2 billion. BRCD's stock breaks down today with heavy volume. The drop comes with heavy volume. so far today BRCD is trading 34.4 million shares, more than double its average daily volume of 14.2 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
BRCD's stock rolled off a cliff in the morning falling sharply in just a few minutes. The stock touched an intraday bottom at 6.47. It then lifted modestly the rest of the day.
The tape action showed heavy selling pressure. TTD's clip of the tape shows the big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks falling from $7.15 a few days ago to $6.53. TTD sees the tape action as very bearish.
Technically, BRCD is breaking down from a classic head-and-should topping pattern. One can see that clearly on a weekly chart.
Analysts are forecasting a 33% drop in BRCD's earnings for the fiscal first quarter ended Jan. 31. They look for 10 cents a share, down from 15 cents a year ago.
The tape action may be indicating results may be weaker than expected.
BRCD offers a line of data center networking hardware, software products and services.
The company has four units. The Data Center Infrastructure, The Server Edge and Storage, The Services, Support and Solutions and The Files.
BRCD's chart shows the stock breaking below key support near 7. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bearish for several weeks. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has been showing distribution for several months.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting BRCD for a drop to 5 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 7.40. TTD would treat the stock as a trading short.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
