By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco email@example.com.For service, email Beverly Owen firstname.lastname@example.org. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 3
Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small. Bulls be conservative. Stock market falls sharply. Potential for another leg down. Bulls be careful.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Bearish
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MAT - AVERAGE
MAT, based near Los Angeles, makes toys such Barbie dolls and and Hot Wheels. Annual revenues: $5.7 billion. MAT's stock rises sharply Tuesday and the stock breaks out from an eight-week flat base. The push higher was triggered by favorable net for the fourth quarter.
TTD highlighted MAT as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
So far today, MAT is trading a heavy 28.6 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 6 million shares.
The stock had been a laggard falling from 45 in 2013 to around 20 late last year.
However, it has been working higher despite the recent stock market selloff.
MAT's 10-minute chart shows the stock rising sharply in after-hours trading in the prior session.
Then Tuesday morning it pushed higher to easily clear its breakpoint line.
MAT then trended higher the rest of the day despite the stock market seloff. It was an impressive move.
MAT check in with fourth quarter net of 63 cents a share, up from 44 cents a year ago.
That topped the consensus estimate on the Street of 60 cents a share.
Revenues came in at $2 billion. The Street was expecting $1.92 billion. It said its Barbie sales jumped 8% for the quarter while Hot Wheel products shot ahead 26%.
MAT's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $26.76 on Monday to as high as $30.46 late on Tuesday.
The strong buying at the final bell is very bullish.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 53,000 shares crossed the tape at $28.50.
Tha was up from the prior block at $26.76 on 204,524 shares.
MATsells a variety of toys worldwide.
The company operates in three groups: North America, International, and American Girl.
It sells dolls and accessories, vehicles and play sets, and games and puzzles under the Mattel Girls & Boys brands.
They include Barbie, Monster High, Disney Classics, Ever After High, Little Mommy, Polly Pocket, Hot Wheels, Matchbox, CARS, Disney Planes, BOOMco, Radica, Toy Story, Max Steel, WWE Wrestling, and Batman.
The company also provides its products under the Fisher-Price brands, such as Fisher-Price, Little People, BabyGear, Laugh & Learn, Imaginext, Thomas & Friends, Dora the Explorer, Mickey Mouse Clubhouse, Disney Jake, the Never Land Pirates, and Power Wheels.
MAT's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up about 6% versus a 5% decline for the stock market.
The stock has moved higher after the last two reported earnings.
MAT's long-term chart shows the stock reaching a peak at 29.71 in 2007, the top in the prior bull market.
MAT then fell back to 10 in 2008 due to the bear market. Afterwards it climbed to multi-year high of 48.48 in 2013.
The past three years, though, it fell back to 20 in 2015. It has now turned up. MAT came publick back in 1970.
MAT's daily chart shows the sock climbing from 20 back in October to a peak near 28.
The stock put down a flat base and now has broken out to the upside with strong volume and a widening of the daily spread.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has hit a new peak.
That shows good underlying buying.
This year, analysts are forecasting a modest 6% increase in net to $1.34 a share from $1.26 in 2015.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 22.
Going out to 2017, the Street looks for a 23% gain in net to $1.65 a share from the anticipated $1.34 this year.
MAT gets most of its earnings in the second half of the year.
For the upcoming first quarter analysts expect a loss of 7 cents a share compared with a loss of 8 cents a year ago.
Then for the second quarter, they look for a profit of 2 cents a share, up from one cent a year ago.
MAT's earnings results tend to be erratic in relation to Wall Street estimates (see table).
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MAT for a move to 36 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 28.50, which is tight.
TTD rates MAT an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is the 3-star rated T. Rowe Price Equity Income Fund with a 3.3% stake. It was a recent buyer of 94,200 shares.
The largest fund buyer recently was the 2-star rated Janus Contrarian D Fund which purchased 1.9 million shares. It has a 2.3% stake.
MAT has 339 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 98% and insiders 1%
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been light buyers of the stock at $25.67. They were light sellers.
Currently, 16 analyts follow the stock, 8 have a buy, up from 5 three months ago.
MAT has a book value of $7.58 a share.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Mattel Inc. - (MAT)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AGR - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DTE - BELOW AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 7
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Bearish.
Bear Side - Market falls sharply snuffing out recent rally. Bears can be venturesome. Key on earnings weakness.
TTD's short from Monday was PDVWireless (PDVW) at 23.07. Tuesday, PDVW falls to 22.41 and is working well for bears.
AXON, based in Bermuda, is a biotech firm working on a treatment for Alzheimer's disease. Annual revenues: Not available. AXON's stock breaks hard to the downside Tuesday. The company may be the target of competition from Pfizer who is working on an Alzheimer drug.
TTD highlighted AXOn as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
So far today, AXON is trading a heavy 1.8 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 374,000 shares.
AXON's stock gapped lower in the morning. It fell to an intraday low of 11.45 in the morning. It then lifted slightly and trended sideways the rest of the day with a modest rally in the final hour.
AXON's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $15.93 two sessions ago to as low as $11.90.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 17,305 shares crossed the tape at $11.95.
That was down from the prior big block at $15.93 on 13,985 shares.
AXON has developed RVT-101, a product candidate that it plans to commence a Phase III pivotal program for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia.
The company was formerly known as Roivant Neurosciences Ltd.
For the fiscal year ending in March, anlaysts are forecasting a loss of 71 cents a share. Going out to fiscal 2017, they look for a loss of 95 cents a share.
AXON's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower on big volume. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AXON for a decline to 10 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 14.70.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AXON - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)