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Ticker Tape Digest

Tuesday - February 3, 2009

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Total Buy Breakouts today - 7

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull's Strategy -  A small list of breakouts today with the overall quality below average. Bulls be selective. Mark's rally gives potential for a turn in the weekly market averages which would be good for bulls.

(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Unfavorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Today's Feature Breakout Stock

Brinks Home Security Holdings Inc. (CFL) - 24.31, up 0.82 - Breakpoint 23.75

Stock Hits New High, TTD Targets 30

                TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - CFL - AVERAGE

  CFL, based in Irving, Tex., provides security system monitoring services for residential and commercial properties in North America. It was a spinoff. Annual revenues: $523 million. CFL breaks out from an 8-week flat base today. It is one of the few breakouts today to hit a new high. That is bullish. So far today, CFL is trading 687,084 shares. Its average daily volume is 448,000 shares.

  CFL's stock came public in October of last year and traded around 24. It then fell with the stock market. However, it began to recover late last year.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades in CFL. The key for bulls is that this afternoon a big block of 10,000 shares crossed the tape at $24.02.

  That was the highest price of the day and showed institutional buyers stepping up and willing to pay up for the stock.

 CFL operates in more than 250 metropolitan areas and services 1.3 million customers in the U.S. and Canada.  

 TTD's performance chart for the past three months shows CFL's stock appreciating 33% compared with a 13% drop in the S&P 500 index. So, CFL has been easily outperforming the market

   CFL's long-term chart shows the stock hitting a new high and recovering nicely from its dip to the lower-teens. The stock has good upside momentum. Since no one bought at a higher price, the stock has "no overhead resistance."  

  TTD's daily chart the breakout through 23.75. The stock had been pushing against that level for several sessions. The move with modestly expanding volume today is constructive.

  Notice CFL bumped against the upside resistance back last year three times.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend, although near-term it's been resting.

  The company's latest report was for the third quarter. It posted net up a big 72% to 31 cents a share from 18 cents a year ago. Revenues increased to $135 million from $124 million a year ago.

  For the nine months, profits were up 31% to 92 cents a share from 70 cents a year ago.

  For 2008, analysts expect CFL to come in with a profit of $1.58 a share. Comparable results were not available.

  The company said it installed 42,700 new systems during the third quarter. That was down from 45,700 a year ago. It said the decline reflected the slowdown in the housing market.

 Strategy Opinion: CFL's breakout today is impressive. The technical setup is good. The only concern is for a possible slowdown in earnings growth. That is the wild card. TTD suggests scaling into CFL with a  partial position. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 30. A protective stop can be placed near 22.50 and should be honored. TTD rates CFL an average intermediate-term play with a lot depending on earnings prospects.

  Sponsorship: Not available.

  Insider Activity: Not available. Four analysts follow the stock and all have a buy, up from 2 buys three months ago.

                     Stock Performance Chart for 3 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.


TTD's Profile Rating
Brinks Home Security Holdings Inc. -  (CFL)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook     YES
Industry Group   YES
Prior Breakout Success     YES
Fund Sponsorship     YES
Total Score 10 0 4

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.

Charts of Breakout Stocks

                TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - TDG - BELOW AVERAGE

                TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - ANSW - BELOW AVERAGE

                TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - FDO - BELOW AVERAGE

                TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - CLDX - BELOW AVERAGE


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 6

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.

Bear Side -  Small list of breakdown stocks today but some interesting plays. Many stocks on list showing fundamental damage. TTD's short from Monday,  Marvel Entertainment Inc. (MVL) - 26.56, off 0.95, falls again. Today it is down 1.10 to 25.60.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Sandisk Corp. (SNDK) - 8.51, off 2.77

Posts Loss, May Seek Financing, TTD Sees Slide to 6

 SNDK, based Sunnyvale, Ca., makes flash memory cards. Annual revenues: $3.7 billion. SNDK's stock falls sharply today after the firm reported a loss. The stock has been trending lower. TTD sees more on the downside. So far today, SNDK is trading 29 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 6.8 million shares.

  TTD highlighted SNDK as a short at our midsession show on the Web.

  The company reported a fourth quarter loss of $1.9 billion. It was equal to a loss of $8.25 a share compared with a profit of 45 cents a share a year ago. The loss included inventory charges. The firm said it is taking steps to curtail its production.

 SNDK products are used in consumer electronic devices including digital cameras, mobile phones, and USB flash drives.

 The company generates more than half of its revenue through retail sales and about a third through sales to original-equipment manufacturer customers. It also develops flash memory standards internally.

  Looking ahead to 2009, analysts forecast a loss of $1.23 a share.

  TTD's daily chart shows SNDK's stock hitting a low near 6. It rallied strongly to 12. However, it gaps lower today on big volume. TTD sees the recent buyers as getting trapped. So, they may be reluctant sellers in coming sessions. TTD is very bearish on SNDK.

  TTD is targeting SNDK for a decline to 6 within the next few months or sooner.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)