Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout Stocks - Friday, February 3, 2017 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, January 23, 2017 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com. For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 27
Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list large with some good looking plays. Stock market holds its up trend. Bulls can be venturesome.
(Put mouse on chart to Nasdaq)
Environment for bulls: Neutral
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CBM - ABOVE AVERAGE |
CBM, based in East Rutherford, J.J., provides services to develop new and generic therapeutic products. Annual revenues: $470 million. CBM's stock breaks out Friday from an eight week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high.
TTD highlighted CBM as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
So far today, CBM is trading a heavy 1.8 million shares. seven times its average daily volume of 272,000 shares.
The move was triggered by stronger than expected quarterly earnings.
CBM's 10-minute chart shows the stock gapping higher in the morning and cutting through its breakpoint zone.
The stock reached an intraday high of $62.50 around noon.
The stock then drifted back in the afternoon, but stayed above its breakpoint zone.
CBM came in with net for the fourth quarter of $1.23 a share.
That topped the consensus estimate of $1.04 a share.
It also topped the highest estimate on the Street of $1.07 a share.
When a company can top the highest estimate, there is a good chance the stock can move higher for a few weeks as analysts adjust their earnings outlook.
Tape Action
CBM's tape action shows the recent block trades. One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $50.50 in the prior session to as high as $61.48.
A key bullish trade came late on Thursday when a block of 20,247 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $51.
That was up from the prior block trade at $50.50 on 5,748 shares.
Near the close a block of 30,441 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $58.25.
That came on an up tick from the prior trade sequence from $58.20 on 312 shares. That is bullish.
Business
CBM provides products and services to develop and sell new and generic therapeutics.
The company sells to generic drug companies.
CBM's plants are in Europe and the U.S.
CBM develops drug ingredients derived from organic chemistry.
The company's products are sold with the trademark Profarmaco.
Charts
CBM's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 60% versus a 20% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers at prices as low as $4.38 to around $12. Some were buyers at $41.
They were recent sellers $49 to $53 a share.
CBM's long-term chart shows the stock making a bottom in 2009 at $1.48. Since then the stock has soared being a sensational winner. However, back in 2001, the stock hit a peak of $26.39 and then trended lower. So, it has been a bumpy ride for the very long-term holders.
CBM's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $40 in November to a peak near $55.
It had a breakout but then faded back. TTD set up a breakpoint zone.
Friday the stock blows through it. Impressive.
CBM's CCI momentum indicator is very bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting a 20% increase in net to $3.06 a share from $2.55 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 18. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Net for the upcoming first quarter of 2017 is expected to be a modest 8% gain to 51 cents a share from 47 cents the year before.
The highest estimate is at 54 cents a share.
TTD sees chances for a big upside surprise. The company topped the consensus estimate the past four quarters. Besides the big beat for the fourth quarter, CBM topped the Street quarterly estimate the three quarters before that by 7%, 40% and 62%.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CBM for a move to $68 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 54.
TTD rates CBM a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet or surpass expectations.
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance after a Breakout:
TTD's research shows that recently (see table) CBM has scored just modest gains off its breakouts. That is due in part that the stock has been in a long-term trading range. However, back in 2015 it scored big gains. So, the stock has chances to be a big winner.
The seasonal chart shows CBM doing very well in February. That is a plus.
CBM Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
5% |
12/13/2016 | 53.74 | 56.75 | 1/6/2017 |
10% |
7/7/2016 | 53.13 | 58.85 | 7/21/2016 |
15% |
4/29/2016 | 45.84 | 52.90 | 6/8/2016 |
23% |
3/29/2016 |
42.92 |
52.90 |
6/8/2016 |
23% |
6/15/2015 | 43.69 | 53.82 |
8/5/2015 |
78% |
2/6/2015 | 24.09 | 42.95 | 4/13/2015 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SF - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CC - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CSC - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - V - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 6
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks as stock market rallies strongly. Bears be selective and conservative.
HBI, based in Winston-Salem, N.C. makes a wide variety of clothes for men and women. Annual revenues: $5.9 billion. HBI's stock falls sharply Friday undercutting key technical support. The drop was triggered by disappointing earnings.
TTD highlighted HBI as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
So far today, HBI is trading a heavy 36.6 million shares, six times its average daily volume of 5.7 million shares.
HBI reported net for the fourth quarter of 53 cents a share.
That was below the consensus estimate on the Street of 58 cents a share.
The stock fell sharply in the morning touching $19.02.
The stock then lifted slightly and trended sideways the rest of the day unable to mount a rally.
Tape Action
HBI's tape action shows the recent block trades falling through the day.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 459,781 shares crossed the tape at $19.75
That was down from the prior block at $22.71 on 182,093 shares.
Near the close Friday another bearish block crossed at $18.98 on 242,798 shares.
That was down from the prior block trade at $19.02 on 85,193 shares.
Business
HBI produces mostly innerwear and activewear clothes.
Its brands include: Hanes, Champion, Maidenform, DIM, Playtex, Bali, JMS/Just My Size, Nur Die/Nur Der, L'eggs, Lovable, Wonderbra, Flexees, Lilyette and Gear for Sports.
Its Hanes brand offers various products, including men's, women's and children's underwear, bras, socks, T-shirts, fleece, shape wear and sheer hosiery.
Earnings
This year, analysts are forecasting a 16% increase in net to $2.15 a share from the $1.85 for 2016.
Net for the first quarter was projected to rise 22% to 32 cents a share from 26 cents the year before.
However, HBI has disappointed two out of the past three quarters. The one it did not disappoint the company just met Street estimates.
Charts
HBI's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower with big volume. The move is a resumption of the down trend in the price of the stock which began in late 2015 when the stock topped out at $35.
HBI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock falling 20% versus a 21% gain for the S&P 500 index.
Insiders were award plenty of options in late 2016. Some bought at $6. They also did some buying around $29 to $27. There has been very little selling.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting HBI for a decline to $15 off this breakout. A protective stop buy can be placed near $20.10. TTD rates HBI a trading short.
Suitability: Average Bears.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HBI - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)