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Ticker Tape Digest

Monday - February 4, 2008

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

Quote or chart

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 6

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side -  Only a few breakouts today as market sags lower. Bulls be conservative.   

Long-Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Today's Featured Stock

Mariner Energy Inc. (ME) 26.45,  up 0.77 - Breakpoint 26

Oil Firm's Net to Jump 81% This Year, TTD Sees Shot at 32

ME, based in Houston, produces oil and gas from properties onshore in West Texas and offshore in shelf and deepwater Gulf of Mexico. (see map). ME breaks out from a five-week base near-term and hits a new high today. The stock is trading 621,986 shares. Its average daily volume is 872,000 shares. The stock's push to a new high could well bring in buying on Tuesday.

TTD highlighted ME as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Monday.

TTD's map shows the area where the company seeks to produce oil and gas.

TTD's clip of the tape shows ME getting off to a good start early in the day. A block of 6,600 shares crossed in the morning on a big up tick to $25.74 from the prior trade at $25.56.

That show institutional buying in a subtle way.

ME added in 2006 offshore Gulf of Mexico properties that were spun off from Forest Oil through an exchange of stock.

Early this year, ME closed its previously announced acquisition of an operating subsidiary of Hydro Gulf of Mexico, Inc., a subsidiary of StatoilHydro ASA, which owns substantially all of StatoilHydro's Gulf of Mexico shelf operations

. In connection with the financing of this acquisition, Mariner amended its secured credit facility to increase maximum credit availability to $1 billion, subject to an increased borrowing base of $750 million as of January 31, 2008, and extended the facility's term to January 31, 2012.

ME is obviously expanding its operations via acquisitions. This year, the bottom line should respond with a big increase in profits.

Technically, the stock breaks out form key overhead resistance around 26. Near-term the base is 5-weeks. However, the key resistance area goes back almost a year. So, today's move is very significant. (see long-term chart).

The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend and actually broke out before the stock's price. That shows very strong underlying buying.

The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bullish.

This year, analysts predict ME's profits will surge 81% to $2.77 a share from an anticipated $1.53 a share for 2007. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  just 9. TTD sees that as very low. Thus, the stock is very attractive to value-growth players looking to play the energy sector.

Net for the upcoming fourth quarter should be down 11% to 45 cents a share from 50 cents a year ago. However, TTD believes the stock market is looking past that quarter.

Net for the first quarter of 2008 should climb 47% to 66 cents a share from 45 cents a year ago.

Strategy Opinion: ME looks ready to turn in numbers and TTD sees that being the driver to send the stock higher. TTD is targeting ME for a move to 32 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 24. TTD rates ME a good intermediate-term play as long as earnings meet expectations.

Sponsorship: Excellent. There are five funds with a 5-star rating that are holders of the stock. 5-star rated Fidelity Leveraged Company Stock Fund is the largest fund holder with a 3.4% stake. It has held its position steady. The largest buyer recently was 5-star rated Wells Fargo Advantage Small Cap Value Z Fund which purchased 369,000 shares.

Insider Activity:  Slightly Bearish. Insiders have been steady sellers recently around 24. Six analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, up from 3 three months ago.

TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Mariner Energy Inc.  (ME)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES  
Volume   YES
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread   YES
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES  
Earnings-Quarterly   YES  
Earnings-Long Term   YES  
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES  
Fund Sponsorship YES  
Total Score 10 2 2

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)

Charts of Breakout Stocks

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 3

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side -  Small list of breakdown stocks today even though stock market pulls back. Bears continue to be on the lookout for fundamentally damaged stocks.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Microstrategy Inc.  (MSTR) - 67.82, down 4.60

Profits Below Expectations,  TTD Sees Decline to 58

MSTR, based in McLean, Va., produces business software. Annual revenues: $350 million. MSTR's stock falls today in heavy trading after the company came in with weaker than expected earnings for the fourth quarter. MSTR is down about 4 points. Volume is running at 1.6 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 394,000 shares.

 TTD's clip of the tape highlights one of the largest trades of the day. It is a big block of 22,125 shares crossing on a down tick to $66.70 from the prior trade at $66.74. The action showed clear institutional selling pressure.

 The company's primary software, known as MicroStrategy 8, is used to analyze data for trends. The software allows results to be communicated through several channels such as e-mail, web, fax, wireless, and voice.

The company said earnings for the fourth quarter declined to $1.41 a share from $1.68 a share a year ago. The Street was expecting net of $1.74 a share. The lowest estimate on the Street was $1.68 a share. So, that was violated and the stock tumbled.

TTD's daily chart shows MSTR's stock in a down trend before the earnings report. Today's breakout down on strong volume indicates more to go on the downside. The stock's accumulation - distribution line is in a sharp down trend indicating clear selling pressure. TTD is targeting MSTR for a decline to 58 within the next few months or sooner.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)