Go To TTD's Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch List -Wednesday, February 4
Go To TTD's Day Trades (win rate 80% for aggressive investors) for Wednesday, February 4
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Go To TTD's Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch List -Wednesday, February 4 |
Go To TTD's Day Trades (win rate 80% for aggressive investors) for Wednesday, February 4 |
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Go to TTD Stock Market Show For - February 4 Go to TTD Stock Market Shows for Latest Week: Monday - Tuesday - Wednesday - Thursday - Friday Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report.
It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation. 
Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.
These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks
will do very well during bear markets or market corrections
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks. These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about an 80% win rate.
Ticker Tape Digest's Midsession Stock Market Video Show(Posted 12:30 to 1 p.m. NYSE Time) Go to TTD Stock Market Show For February 4Go to Shows for Latest Week: Monday
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Tuesday
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Wednesday
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Thursday
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Friday
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Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull's Strategy - A small list of breakouts today with the overall quality average. Bulls be selective. Market's attempt to rally across trading range meeting turbulence. However, some market indicators turning bullish.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Unfavorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
| TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - HMSY - ABOVE AVERAGE |
HMSY, based in New York, provides health-care cost containment and
payment-accuracy services to government-sponsored health programs in the United
States. Annual revenues:; $174 million. HMSY breaks out from a six-week, flat base today on expanding volume. The stock is a leader and close to making a new all-time high. It just needs to hurdle 37.09. That would be a bullish development. 
TTD has highlighted HMSY before. The latest report was on Jan. 29. The stock has been "knocking on the door" of a breakout.
Today, we featured the stock at our midsession show on the Web.
So far today, HMSY is trading 681,419 shares, double its normal daily volume of 360,000 shares.
The stock mover higher nicely in the morning, peaked around midday and then held most of its gain as it eased back in the late afternoon with the weakness in the stock market.
TTD's clip of the tape shows big block trades recently. A key trade was a block of 10,000 share that traded in the afternoon of today's session at $33.53. That was up from $33.25 on the prior block trade.
The stock has a low beta of 0.28 versus the beta for the stock market of 1.00. So, HMSY tends to be a slow mover. However, if the stock can get going on the upside, TTD sees the beta improving making the stock a more aggressive play.
HMSY's services aid states in recovering amounts due from third-party insurers, while avoiding and reducing future costs.
The company's clients include state Medicaid agencies, government-sponsored managed care plans, child support agencies, the Veterans Health Administration, and other public programs. The company should do well as agencies try to cut costs.
TTD's performance chart for the past 12 months shows HMSY appreciating about 9% compared with a 35% drop in the S&P 500.
TTD's long-term chart of HMSY shows the stock consolidating within a
powerful bull market phase. The stock soared from 3 back in 2003 to a peak of 37
in early 2008. It has since pulled back into a long-term basing pattern. 
Now it is on the move higher again.
HMSY's daily chart shows the stock with a breakout from a base at 27 in November.
The stock worked higher and now is emerging from a short six-week flat base. The current base has a "wedge" to the upside. That is a good indication that the stock "wants to move higher" because it refuses to give much ground on pull backs.
The stock's technicals are very bullish. The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is bullish and has already broken out to the upside. It indicates strong buying is taking place to drive the stock higher.
For 2008, analysts forecast a 36% increase in HMSY's earrings to 77 cents a share from 57 cents a year ago. The company's revenues are growing at 26%.
A few weeks ago, HMSY upgraded its 2008 outlook. It now expects 77 to 78 cents a share. That is just a minor blip higher but firms up that fact that 2008 net will be okay.
HMSY recently said with increasing unemployment driving acceleration of the Medicaid program's growth rate, and as states under fiscal duress focus ever more attention on cost containment, the firm is positioned for continued solid revenue and earnings growth in 2009."
Analysts project 2009 net will climb 26% to 97 cents a share from 77 cents expected in 2008. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 30 based on 2009 estimated net. TTD sees that as reasonable.
HMSY is poised to show strong earnings for the next two quarters. For the fourth quarter, the Street expects earnings to jump 62% to 24 cents a share from 15 cents a year ago. Looking out to the first quarter of 2009, they see net rising 50% to 18 cents a share from 12 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: HMSY is a strong acting stock and a leader breaking out. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 42. A protective stop can be placed at 29 giving it room. TTD rates HMSY a very good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on target.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Waddell & Reed Science and Technology Fund with a 5.5% stake. A large fund buyer lately was 5-star rated UMB Scout Small Cap Fund which purchased 240,000 shares. HMSY has 25 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 9.3 million shares.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been buyers using stock options, but in many cases they have turned around and sold. Four analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, down from 4 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Profile
Rating HMS Holdings Corp. - (HMSY) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume Expansion | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.
Charts of Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - EW - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - THRX - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - BCO - BELOW AVERAGE |
Profits to Spurt 47% This Fiscal Year, TTD Targets 72
CPLA, based in Minneapolis, is an online post-secondary education company.
Annual revenues: $260 million. CPLA is part of the strong acting educational
group. CPLA has yet to hit a new high, while some other issues in the group have. Nevertheless, the stock is set up nicely in a two-month flat base. With good earnings coming this year, TTD sees good chances for an upside move. 
TTD highlighted CPLA in our Jan. 20 report.
So far today, the stock is trading down about one point. Volume is running at a light 116,154 shares. The stock's average daily volume is 248,000 shares. The light volume on the decline shows that selling pressure is not great.
TTD's clip of the tape shows good buying interest at the opening. A block of 1,206 shares crossed the tape on a big up tick to $59.49 from the prior trade at $58.11.
CPLA's stock came public in late 2006 and traded around 23. It climbed to a peak of 75. Afterwards it went into an intermediate-term pull back (see TTD's long-term chart). The stock is now in a base after being in an up trend. .
CPLA is a regionally accredited, exclusively online post-secondary
education company. It offers bachelor's, master's, and doctoral programs in
health and human services, business management, information technology, and
education. The company reports that more than 80% of students are enrolled in master's
or doctoral programs. At the end of 2007,CPLA had roughly 22,300 students. 
CPLA's daily chart shows the stock rallying from 35 to 60. It is now in a flat base and in an overall up trend. A few weeks ago CPLA bumped up against its overhead resistance near 61, but was turned back.
The base structure is bullish with volume contracting near the lows.
The fact the stock has come close to the breakpoint three times in recent weeks means it has potential to push through it. It is spending a lot of time at the upper end of its base. That is good news for bulls.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending lower now. So the technicals indicate some weakness. So, one should be patient with the stock looking for the breakout before diving in.
CPLA's earnings for the upcoming fourth quarter should increase 21% to 61 cents a share from 51 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 64 cents a share.
TTD sees good chances for a modest upside surprise. The past four quarters CPLA has topped the consensus Street estimate by one to three cents a share.
Looking out to the first quarter of next year, TTD sees an acceleration in quarterly profit growth with net climbing 28% to 40 cents a share from 31 cents a share a year ago.
Net for 2008 should increase 22% to $1.63 a share from $1.33 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 34. That is high given the earnings growth rate. So, one needs to be very watchful of the stock. The company is benefiting from its ability to be open to Army personnel taking education courses. With the chance of many troops in Iraq coming home it could boost their business.
Going out to 2009, Wall Street looks for a 25% gain in net to $2.03 a share from the anticipated $1.63 a share in 2008.
Strategy Opinion: CPLA has two key bullish factors - earnings are strong and the stock is in a leading bullish sector. TTD suggests entry by using a stop buy at $60.20. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 72 after a breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 56 after a breakout giving it room. However, the stock should be watched carefully due to its valuation. TTD rates CPLA a good intermediate-term play because of its solid earnings outlook.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Baron Small Cap Fund with a big 5.3% stake. It was a recent buyer of 125,000 shares. Also, 3-star rated T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund was the largest buyer purchasing 507,000 shares. It is the second largest holder with a 4.4% stake. CPLA has 16 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 5.9 million shares.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Some light buying and selling by insiders. Currently, 12 analysts follow the stock, 7 have a buy, up from 6 three months ago.
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 6
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.
Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today as market sells off in the afternoon. Bears are still in a favorable market.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
UTI, based in Phoenix, owns and operates a series of trade schools at about 30 locations in the United States. Annual revenues: $343 million. UTI's stock falls sharply today after the company reported a disappointing 65% drop in quarterly earnings. The stock gapped lower on massive volume of 1.8 million shares, six times its normal daily volume of 265,000 shares. 
UTI fell sharply at the opening and was unable to mount any rally during the day. TTD's clip of the tape shows the stock under selling pressure in the morning after the initial drop. The tape action may indicate more institutional selling to come.
A block of 13,500 shares crossed the tape on a modest down tick to $11.97 from $11.99.
School stocks have been strong. UTI has been a laggard.
UTI's schools offer practical courses in subjects that are primarily focused on the repair of internal combustion engines. The company offers courses that focus on the repair of both automobile and boat engines, as well as motorcycle and high-performance repairs. Courses focused on collision repair are also offered.
UTI reported net for the fiscal first quarter ending Dec. 31 fell to 9 cents a share from 24 cents a year ago. That was well below Street estimates.
Piper Jaffray cut its investment rating on the stock to sell, saying a negative cloud over the auto industry will dampen student interest in UTI's technical training, as it's increasingly uncertain whether a job will await them after graduation.
TTD's daily chart shows the gap drop on big volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has rolled over. That indicates clear selling pressure.
TTD is targeting UTI for a decline to 9 within the next few months. There is a chance for another big breakdown in the stock.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
