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Aggressive Investor Bullish- Go To TTD Quick Trade Setups (win rate 70%) - Thursday, February 4 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Only a few breakouts, but some good stocks. Big stock market selloff puts the market back into a down trend. Bulls be careful and continue to honor all stops. Because all time indicators are bearish, TTD has moved to "Neutral" on the Long-term.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutal
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OTEX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
OTEX, based in Waterloo, On., Canada, provides content management software solutions. Annual revenues: $814 million. OTEX's stock surges higher today overcoming the weak stock market. The move carries the stock up and out from a 4-month flat base. The gap move came on big volume. So far OTEX is trading 1.8 million shares, 12 times its average daily volume of 167,000 shares. 
OTEX's 5-minute chart shows the stock gapping well above its breakpoint at 41.49. The stock held its gain throughout the day shrugging off any effect of the stock market's decline.
OTEX reported net for the fiscal second quarter ending January 30 of 37 cents a share on a diluted basis, up sharply from one cent a share a year ago. The results were well above Street estimates.
The bullish earnings news was taken in a bullish way by the stock.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades in OTEX. 
One can see the big jump in price on the first big block today. It climbed to $43.99 from the prior block at $39.98.
It is noteworthy that by midday a big block of 49,700 shares crossed the tape at $44.85. That was much higher than the block prices earlier in the session. That tape action indicated institutions were still willing to step up an buy even after the news was out for some time.
OTEX's software products help its customers to manage their critical business content, including version revisions and compliance with regulatory requirements.
Its Open Text ECM Suite enables corporations to manage traditional forms of content, such as images, office documents, graphics and drawings, as well as to manage electronic content, including Web pages, e-mail and video.
Its solutions aim to allow users to gain access to view and manage all information related to a transaction or business process, without having to switch from one application to another. It offers solutions both as end-user standalone products and as fully integrated modules.
OTEX's nine-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 40% compared with a 19% gain for the S&P 500 index.
OTEX's long-term chart shows the stock to be a steady climber. Today, it hits a new all-time high. That is very bullish and could well bring in more buying on Friday from the new-high crowd.
OTEX's daily chart shows the gap breakout. The stock did attempt a breakout about three weeks ago, but it faded back into the base. This breakout is impressive and comes with strong volume and bullish news.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is neutral.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has been working higher. It is bullish.
The company said its strong quarterly profits came from good license revenue growth. It has also developed some new services that are working well.
For the fiscal year ending June 30, analysts have been forecasting an 18% increase in net to $2.79 a share. However, TTD expects those forecasts to be bumped up to possibly 25%.
It is that upgrading of annual earnings growth that can propel the stock even higher. Going out to fiscal 2011, analysts project a 21% gain in profits.
Net for the fiscal third quarter of 2010 should be up 21%.
Strategy Opinion: OTEX is a "special situation" stock. TTD is targeting OTEX for a move to 52 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 40. TTD rates OTEX a good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Seligman Communications Fund with a big 4.6% stake. It has held its position steady. There are five funds with a 5-star rating that are major holders. OTEX has 56.4 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Not available. Currently, 15 analysts follow the stock, 9 have a buy, up from 8 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 9 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Open Text Corp. - (OTEX) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VRNT - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DMND - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AIPC - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 20 = the max.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Big selloff today triggers a flood of short plays. TTD kept the list down to 20. February is a bearish month seasonally. Bears look to be aggressive with stocks with fundamentals damaged. TTD's short from Wednesday was Western Union Co. (WU) - 17.26, down 1.59. Today, it is trading at 16.60 and working well for bears.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
PENN, based in Wyomissing, Pa., operates gaming casinos. Annual revenues: $2.4 billion. PENN's stock gaps lower with massive volume today after the company reported a fourth quarter loss and lowered its outlook for 2010. The stock has undercut key technical support. So far today, PENN is trading 4.3 million shares, five times its average daily volume of 4.3 million shares. 
Today, the company reported a fourth quarter loss of $4.54 a share compared with a loss of $4.77 a year ago. The company also said earnings for 2010 would be about $1 a share. That disappointed the Street, which was looking for $1.39 a share.
The company blamed weak consumer spending for the weak results. It also said the high unemployment was impacting operations.
PENN's stock fell at the opening and the stock continued to drift lower the rest of the day.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks falling from $27.20 to $24.99. The tape action indicated clear institutional selling pressure.
PENN owns or operates 19 facilities.
The Company owns Charles Town Entertainment Complex, Argosy Casino Lawrenceburg, Hollywood Casino Aurora, Empress Casino Hotel and Argosy Casino Riverside.
It also has Hollywood Casino Baton Rouge, Argosy Casino Alton, Hollywood Casino Tunica, Hollywood Casino Bay St. Louis, Argosy Casino Sioux City, Boomtown Biloxi, Hollywood Slots Hotel and Raceway, and Bullwhackers and Black Gold Casino at Zia Park.
PENN's chart shows the stock gapping lower undercutting key support near 25. The stock has been under distribution for months. (See accumulation - distribution line bottom of chart).
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PENN for a drop to 19.50 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 25.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
