Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 4, 2019 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Tuesday - February 5, 2019
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8
Quality of Breakouts - Below Average.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Small list of breakouts and very selective.
Stock market - All major averages are bullish in all time sectors.
Comment - Stock market continues to rally and is doing well during this earnings season.
See Latest Earnings Reports - A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Tuesday: MODN, PLT, MLI, ARRY, HLNE, and BP.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MHO - AVERAGE |
MHO, based in Columbus, Ohio, is a builder of single-family homes. Annual revenues: $2 billion. MHO's stock moves sharply higher Tuesday and breaks out from its five-month double-bottom base.
TTD sees more on the upside.
MHO's volume is at 651,061 shares, triple its average daily volume of 201,910 shares.
MHO's stock move higher was triggered by better-than-expected earnings.
The company reported fourth quarter net of $1.32 a share. That topped the consensus estimate of $1.17 a share.
MHO's 10-minute chart shows the stock gapping higher in the morning and clearing its breakpoint line.
The stock reached an intraday high of $29.78 around midday
The stock then trended sideways into the final bell.
Tape Action
MHO's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks increasing from $25.78 to $29.42 late in the day.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 4,138 shares crossed the tape at $27.42.
That was up from the prior block the day before at $25.78 on 29,522 shares.
Another key bullish trade came in the afternoon when a massive block of 72,970 shares crossed the tape.
That was up from the prior block trade at $29.12 on 25,000 shares.
Business
MHO provides homebuilding and financial services.
It operates in the Midwest, South, Mid-Atlantic areas.
The company makes single-family homes in 15 markets. Some of those are in Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Chicago, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota, Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio and the suburbs of Washington, D.C.
Charts
MHO 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 8% versus a 4% gain for the stock market.
MHO has been acting strong the past two months having gained 20%.
MHO insiders were sellers the past few months at $31 to $26 a share.
MHO's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $5 back in 2011 to a peak at $29 by early 2013.
The stock then trended sideways until 2017. It broke out and climbed to a peak at $37 by late 2017. It pulled back but has now turned up again.
MHO's daily chart shows the stock breaking out from a five-month double-bottom base.
The move comes with a widening of the daily spread and expanding volume.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting a 10% increase in net to $4.23 a share.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 7. TTD sees that as attractive for value-growth investors.
Net for the upcoming first quarter is expected to rise 5% to 69 cents a share from the 66 cents the year before.
The company beat the Street estimate the past three quarters. That is very bullish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MHO for a move to $36 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $26.50.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Bullish.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish - MHO scored some solid gains off some of its recent breakouts.
Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bearish - MHO rose 4 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Bullish. - MHO averaged a decline of 0.3% in February and a gain of 7.3% in March the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
30% |
10/23/2017 |
28.77 |
37.26 |
1/17/2018 |
6% |
4/26/2017 |
26.56 |
29.07 |
5/15/2017 |
16% |
7/20/2016 |
20.38 |
23.64 |
9/7/2016 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating M/I Homes Inc. (MHO) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 11 | 0 | 3 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EL - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CCI - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MASI - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HZNP - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 1
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only one short play. Aggressive bears can be venturesome.
HAE, based in Braintree, Ma., produces products used to process, handle and analyze blood. Annual revenues: $904 million. HAE's stock falls sharply Tuesday after the company made a disappointing earnings forecast.
TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, HAE is trading a heavy 2.5 million shares, seven times its average daily volume of 354,000 shares.
HAE reported net for the fiscal third quarter of 63 cents a share. That topped the consensus estimate of 59 cents a share.
However, HAE missed with its revenues. That could prompt a downgrading of its earnings outlook.
HAE's stock gapped lower in the morning and cut below key technical support. It touched an intraday low of $83.05 in the morning.
The stock lifted to $88.90 in the morning, but then faded later in the day.
Tape Action
HAE's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $97.17 in the prior session to as low as $84.51 in the afternoon.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 20,311 shares crossed the tape at $88.25.
That was down from the prior block at $97.13 on 24,311 shares the day before.
Business
HAE provides plasma collection systems and software which enable plasma fractionators to make pharmaceuticals.
The company enables plasma collection customers to source from it a range of products necessary for plasma collection and storage.
HAE offers a range of blood management solutions. It has a suite of integrated software solutions, which include solutions for blood drive planning and blood collection.
Earnings:
This fiscal year ending in March analysts are forecasting a 24% jump in net to $2.32 a share from the $1.87 the year before.
However, net for the fiscal third quarter ending in December is expected to be down 5% to 59 cents a share from the 62 cents the year before.
Charts:
HAE's daily chart shows the stock trending lower from a peak at $114 in October. The gap drop extends the down trend.
HAE's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 38% versus a 3% gain for the stock market. However, HAE has been losing ground the past four months.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting HAE for a decline to $74 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $88.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish. HAE rose 8 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Bullish. HAE averaged a gain of 0.5% in February and a gain of 5.5% in March the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HAE - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.
TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)