By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco email@example.com.For service, email Beverly Owen firstname.lastname@example.org. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Below Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side -
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable.
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RDEN - ABOVE AVERAGE
RDEN, based in Miramar, Fla., produces beauty products and sells worldwide. Annual revenues: $1.2 billion. RDEN's stock moves sharply higher today and breaks out from an 11-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. RDEN is trading a light 180,507 shares so far today. Its average daily volume is 197,000 shares.
RDEN's 10-minute chart shows the stock pushing higher in the morning with light volume. It continued to work higher putting distance between it and its breakpoint line.
The stock edged back slightly late in the day.
RDEN's tape action is show with the recent big block trades.
The tape action today shows a key bullish trade of 1,000 shares crossing the tape at $39.50 in the afternoon.
That is up sharply from the prior block trade at $38.54. Although the block is small, it did show some aggressive buyers stepping up. The stock then traded a block of 1,200 shares later in the session at $39.79. That is more proof of bullish buyers coming into RDEN. .
RDEN sells fragrances, skin care and cosmetic products to retailers.
The company’s products include the Elizabeth Arden fragrances: Red Door, Elizabeth Arden 5th Avenue, Elizabeth Arden green tea, and Pretty Elizabeth Arden; the Elizabeth Arden skin care brands: Ceramide, Eight Hour Cream, Intervene and PREVAGE, and the Elizabeth Arden branded lipstick, foundation and other color cosmetics products.
The company also operates the Red Door Spas.
RDEN's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 42% versus a 4% gain for the stock market.
RDEN's long-term chart shows the stock climbing to an all-time peak of $28.05 in 2007. The stock was then dragged lower to $5 during the bear market. It has since rallied strongly and has made an eight-fold move back to close to 40.
RDEN's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 26 in August to 38 in December. The stock then formed a flat base mostly above the rising 50-day moving average line.
Today's breakout finally clears the base. The stock had made two recent attempts but did not clear the key resistance.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an up trend which technically supports the breakout.
This fiscal year ending June of 2012, analysts forecast a strong 27% increase in DEN's net to $1.99 a share from $1.56 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price earnings ratio of 20. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Net for the upcoming fiscal third quarter ending March 30, profits are expected to show a 50% improvement to 3 cents a share from 2 cents a year ago. The quarter is the company's slowest.
Looking ahead to the fiscal fourth quarter ending June 30, net is projected to rise 27% to 23 cents a share from 18 cents a year ago.
RDEN tends to top the consensus quarterly estimate by 3 to 8 cents a share.
Going out to fiscal 2013, analysts are looking for a 19% gain in net to $2.36 a share from the anticipated $1.99 for fiscal 2012.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting RDEN for a move to 48. A protective stop can be placed near 36.50.
TTD rates RDEN an good intermediate-term play due to its solid earnings outlook and reasonable valuation.
Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is Fidelity Capital Appreciation Fund with a 2.5% stake. The 3-star rated fund was a recent buyer of 90,648 shares. A key buyer recently was 4-star rated Hartford Small Company HLS Fund which purchased 21,360 shares. RDEN has 29.3 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Very Bearish: Insiders have been buyers of the stock using options at $11.33 and turning around and selling around $36. They have done no clear buying at the market..TTD's table showing insider activity clearly depicts the selling pressure. Seven analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Elizabeth Arden Inc. - (RDEN)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - APC - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CHD - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PXP - BELOW AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AIZ -BELOW AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 1
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only one short play. Bears remain patient and watchful. Stock market still in up trend.
EDMC, based in Pittsburgh, Pa., provides post-secondary education in North America. Annual revenues: $2.9 billion. EDMC's stock falls today with volume picking up. The stock had a severe breakdown in price four sessions ago. Today's decline reinforces the stock's down trend and break below key technical support near 21. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, EDMC is trading 275,629 shares. Its average daily volume is 257,000 shares.
The stock moved lower in the morning and continued to head south until hitting an intraday low of 19.82. The stock then trended sideways in the afternoon.
EDMC's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $21.21 to $20. A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 20,000 shares crossed the tape at $20.40, down from the prior block trade at $20.87.
EDMC offers campus-based and online instructions to enable students earn undergraduate and graduate degrees, including doctoral degrees and certain specialized non-degree diplomas in various disciplines.
The company offers education through the Art Institutes, Argosy University, the Brown Mackie Colleges, and South University, as well as Western State University College of Law, which offers Juris Doctor Degrees. The firm's Ventura Group provides education courses for K-12 educators.
This fiscal year ending June 30 analysts forecast a 35% drop in earnings to $1.13 a share from $1.75 a year ago. For the upcoming fiscal third quarter ending March 31, profits are expected to plunge 48% to 29 cents a share from 57 cents a year ago.
EDMC's stock chart shows the stock with a recent gap drop to as low as 19. The stock now is rolling over again and heading south. The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting EDMC for a decline 16 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 20.90.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EDMC - AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)