Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 5, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Wednesday - February 7, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 7
Quality of Breakouts - Below Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Small list of breakouts and very selective. Bulls be conservative.
Stock market - Bearish on a daily basis and bearish on a weekly, except for the Dow. Monthly indexes remain bullish. Market still vulnerable to the downside, but trying to base. Heavy flow of earnings reports to come.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FLOW - ABOVE AVERAGE |
FLOW, based in Charlotte, N.C., operates in about 30 countries selling pumps, valves and filters for the food beverage and chemical industries. Annual revenues: $2 billion. FLOW breaks out Wednesday from an eight-week flat base.
The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.
FLOW is trading 719,110 shares, double its average daily volume of 321,000 shares.
The breakout was triggered when FLOW reported fourth quarter net of 50 cents a share. That topped the consensus estimate on the Street of 52 cents a share.
It was the first quarterly beat by FLOW after four quarterly misses.
FLOW's 10-minute chart shows the stock breaking out in the morning.
The stock then gradually worked its way higher getting to an intraday peak of $49.50 in the late afternoon.
Tape Action
FLOW 's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $46.10 in the morning to as high as $48.80.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 4,906 shares crossed the tape at $47.
That was up from the prior block at $46.10 on 3,218 shares.
Business
FLOW provides its flow and pump products to over 30 countries. The company operates in three areas: Food and beverage, power and energy and industrial.
It makes pumps, valves, mixers, filters, air dryers, hydraulic tools, homogenizers, separators and heat exchangers.
The food and beverage products include mixing, drying, evaporation and separation systems and components, heat exchangers, and reciprocating and centrifugal pumps.
Its products in the power and energy segment include pumps, valves and accessories. Its products in the Industrial segment are filtration equipment, hydraulic technologies and heat exchangers.
Charts
FLOW's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 35% versus an 18% gain for the stock market.
Insiders have light sellers $36 to $45 the past 10 months. They have done no buying.
FLOW's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2015 at $33.94. The stock fell sharply to a low of $14.85 by early 2016.
However, since then FLOW has been working steadily higher having tripled.
FLOW's daily chart shows the stock advancing from $32 back in late September to a peak at $48 by December.
The stock put down a tight flat base.
However, about a week ago it came under selling pressure.
Nevertheless the stock has turned and rallied aggressively to breakout with strong volume.
FLOW's CCI momentum indicator (bottom of the chart) has turned up and is solidly bullish.
Earnings Outlook:
This year, analysts are forecasting a 91% surge in net to $2.43 a share from $1.27 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 19. TTD sees that as attractive for value-growth investors.
Going out to 2019, the Street is calling fro a 33% jump in net to $3.22 a share from the anticipated $2.43 for 2018.
Net for the upcoming first quarter is expected to climb to 35 cents a share compared with a loss of one cent the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting FLOW for a move to $58 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near $46.
TTD rates FLOW a very good intermediate-term play.
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish. FLOW has scored modest gains off its recent breakouts.
Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish. FLOW rose 3 times after the past 8 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Neutral. FLOW declined an average of 6.3% in February, but rose an average of 18% in March.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
11% |
11/29/2017 | 43.28 | 48.37 | 1/12/2018 |
6% |
4/25/2017 | 36.37 | 38.55 | 5/15/2017 |
10% |
1/10/2017 | 33.30 | 36.56 | 1/27/2017 |
17% | 12/1/2016 | 31.07 | 36.56 | 1/27/2017 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating SPX Flow Inc. (FLOW) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PERY - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LULU - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NEWR - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PRO - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks Wednesday. Bears be patient and conservative. Stock market had big fall and is now trying to consolidate.
BCO, based in Richmond, Va., provides security services and armored cars. Annual revenues: $3 billion. BCO's stock falls sharply Wednesday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, BCO is trading 1.5 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 389,000 shares.
TTD highlighted BCO as a breakdown stock at our midsession video show.
The company reported net of 95 cents a share for the fourth quarter topping the Street consensus estimate of 93 cents a share.
However, the 95 cents was below some analysts forecasts that were as high as $1.01 a share.
BCO's stock fells sharply in the morning cutting below near-term support.
The stock acted weak through the day and closed near its low for the session. That is bearish.
Tape Action
BCO's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $81.30 in the prior session to as low as $75.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 22,600 shares crossed the tape at $77.92.
That was down from the prior block trade at $80.75 on 3,915 shares.
Business
BCO provides security services in the U.S., France, Mexico, Brazil, Canada, Latin America, EMEA, Asia.
The company takes care of automated teller machine, cash management services, including vault outsourcing, money processing, and intelligent safe services, international transportation of valuables, and payment services.
Its customers include financial institutions, retailers, government agencies (including central banks), mints, jewelers and other commercial operations around the world.
Earnings:
This year, analysts are forecast a 26% increase in net to $3.79 a share from the $3.02 the year before.
However, net for the first quarter is expected to be "soft" being up just 9%.
Charts:
BCO's daily chart shows the stock breaking out to the upside in January. However, the stock reversed and broke down.
It has now cut below key technical support with a big pick up in volume. That is very bearish.
BCO's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 65% versus an 18% gain for the stock market. However, the stock has given back 35% the past month.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting BCO for a decline to $67 within the next few months, or sooner. TTD sees BCO as a trading short. A protective stop buy can be placed near $78.
Suitability: Conservative Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish. BCO rose just 7 times after the past 12 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Bullish. BCO rose an average of 6.5% in February the past 5 years and 1.7% in March.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BCO - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.
TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)