Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Tuesday, February 8 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - January 31 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 18
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list remains large as stock market pushes higher. Bulls be selective as stock market is extended and volume is contracting.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ENS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
ENS, based in Reading, Pa., makes industrial batteries. Annual revenues: $1.6 million. ENS' stock breaks out today from a nine-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a 52-week high. The stock just needs to hurdle $37.71 to make a new high. That would be bullish. So far today, ENS is trading 292,848 shares so far today. Its average daily volume is 235,000 shares.
TTD highlighted ENS' stock as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
TTD's 10-minute chart shows the stock driving higher in the morning. It held easily above its breakpoint. An impressive move!
The company will report earnings for the fiscal third quarter ended December 31 on February 10.
The stock appears to be moving ahead of the numbers indicating bullish results.
The Street is forecasting quarterly net to rise 37% to 60 cents a share from 44 cents a share a year ago. The highest estimate is at 65 cents a share. In the prior quarter, ENS posted net 7 cents a share above the consensus. So, there is good chances for an upside surprise.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent block trades. One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $33.47 to $34.25. A key bullish trade came in the morning when 3,872 shares crossed the tape at $34.01. That was up from the prior block at $33.91.
ENS also makes chargers, power equipment and battery accessories, and provides related after-market and customer-support services for industrial batteries.
The company sells to over 10,000 customers in more than 100 countries.
The company operates in three business segments: Americas, which includes North and South America; Europe, which includes Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Asia, which includes Asia, Australia and Oceania.
It has two primary industrial battery product lines: reserve power products and motive power products.
ENS 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 60% versus a 25% gain for the S&P 500 index.
ENS' long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2004 and trading around $12. The stock soared to a peak of 37 in 2008. It was the dragged down in the bear market to a low of $5.71. It has since made a remarkable recovery.
ENS' daily chart shows the stock in a strong up trend and rising above its climbing 50-day moving average line. That shows the stock in a strong up trend.
The base is flat and bracketed between 32 and 34 which is tight and bullish.
The breakout looks solid with expanding volume.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bullish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend that compliments the price pattern.
This fiscal year ending March of 2011 analysts look for a 59% surge in net to $2.29 a share from $1.44 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 15. TTD sees that as low making the stock attractive to value investors.
The Street expects net for the fourth quarter ending in March to be up 38% to 62 cents a share from 45 cents a share a year ago.
Going out to fiscal 2012, the Street projects an 18% gain in net to $2.71 a share from the anticipated $2.29 a share for fiscal 2011.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ENS for a move to 43 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 31. TTD rates ENS a good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. A key buyer recently was 4-star rated CRM Small Cap Value Fund which purchased 423,300 shares. The largest fund holder is one-star rated Fidelity Magellan Fund with a 4.1% stake. ENS has 49.2 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders have done more selling than buying in recent months. Nine analysts follow the stock and all 9 have a buy, up from 8 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating EnerSys Inc. - (ENS) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 12 | 0 | 2 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BEN - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IL - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IPHS - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SNCR - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only a few breakdown stocks today as stock market edges higher. Bears need to focus on special situation stocks breaking down with weak earnings.
STE, based in Mentor, Ohio, produces infection prevention and surgical products. Annual revenues: $1.2 billion. STE's stock drops sharply today after the company reported disappointing earnings for the fiscal third quarter ended December 31. So far today, STE is trading 1.1 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 251,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
STE reported net for the fiscal third quarter declined to 36 cents a share from 69 cents a year ago.
The 36 cents a share was below the consensus estimate on the Street of 57 cents a share and below the lowest estimate of 54 cents a share. So, the results were a big disappointment.
STE's stock gapped lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low of $32.70. The stock then lifted slightly and then trended sideways the rest of the day.
STE's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $35.75 to as low as $33.35 in the morning. A key bearish trade was 16,141 shares that crossed at $33.35. Later in the day, the price for the blocks lifted slightly indicating some bargain hunting.
STE sells sterilizers and surgical tables and consumable products such as detergents and skin care products.
Analysts have been forecasting a 1% increase in STE's net for the fiscal year ending March 30. They were forecasting $2.23 a share versus $2.21 a year ago. However, that forecast will be lowered.
STE's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower with big volume. The stock was acting well prior to the breakdown. So, the news appears to have come as a surprise.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting STE for a decline to 28 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near $35.20.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - STE - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)