Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout Stocks - Wednesday, February 8, 2017 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 6, 2017 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com. For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 13
Quality of Breakouts - ABOVE AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list large with some good looking plays. Stock market holds in overall up trend.
(Put mouse on chart to Nasdaq)
Environment for bulls: Neutral
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LITE - ABOVE AVERAGE |
LITE, based in Milpitas, Ca., makes optical and photonic products for networking and laser products. Annual revenues: $948 million. LITE's stock moves sharply higher Wednesday and breaks out from a five-month flat base. TTD sees more on the upside.
LITE's move comes after reporting better than expected earnings for the fiscal second quarter ending in December.
So far today, LITE is trading 5.4 million shares, about five times its average daily volume of 1.1 million shares.
LITE came in with net for the fiscal second quarter ending in December of 57 cents a share topping the Street's consensus estimate of 51 cents a share.
LITE's stock drove higher and just edged over its breakpoint in the morning.
However, it faded back below it during midday.
Then in the session LITE's stock came on and close above its breakpoint and near its high for the day.
That was bullish.
Tape Action
LITE's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One an see a key bullish trade coming in the morning when a block of 44,071 shares, duplicated, crossed the tape at $42.
That was up from the prior block trade at $40.19 on 13,500 shares late in the prior session.
The near the close a massive block of 93,722 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $45.85.
That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $45.45 on 12,138 shares.
Business
LITE makes optical and photonic products.
They are used for data communications and telecom., networking and commercial lasers.
They are used for manufacturing, inspection and life-science applications.
The company operates in two segments: Optical Communications and Commercial Lasers.
The company's lasers products serve customers in manufacturing, biotechnology, graphics and imaging, remote sensing, and precision machining.
Charts
LITE's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating a sensational 100% topping the stock market's 22% gain.
Insiders have been recent steady sellers around $40 a share. They have been steady buyers using stock options. The latest price they used for options was $25 a share.
Viavi Solutions has been a heavy insider seller of the stock. The company is based in Milpitas, Ca. makes testing and monitoring products.
LITE's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2015 at $18.60. The stock climbed steadily to a peak of $45.25 late last year. It backed off and formed a base. Now LITE breaks out to a new all-time high.
LITE's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $31 in August to a peak near $45.25 last October.
The stock then trended in a sideways pattern in a range between $44 and $36.
The breakout Wednesday comes with a widening of the daily spread and expanding volume.
The breakout looks very good.
The CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
Analysts are forecasting a 67% surge in net to $1.67 a share from the $1 a share a year before.
The stock has a price-earnings ratio of 27. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Going out to fiscal 2018 ending in June, the Street is predicting a 33% leap in net to $2.21 a share from the anticipated $1.67 this fiscal year.
The next two quarters will be strong.
Profits for the fiscal third quarter ending in March is expected to surge 95% to 37 cents a share from 19 cents the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 40 cents a share. TTD sees god chances for an upside earnings surprise. The company topped the consensus the past three quarters.
Looking out to the fiscal fourth quarter ending in June, profits are expected to jump 33% to 47 cents a share from 35 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting LITE for a move to $55 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $43.
TTD rates LITE a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of LITE's Stock's Prior Performance after a Breakout:
TTD's research shows that recently (see table) LITE has scored some big gains after a breakout. The stock is now emerging from a five month consolidation pattern. It has potential to do well off this breakout.
LITE's seasonal pattern shows the stock racking up big gains in February and March. That is impressive.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
3% |
12/8/2016 | 42.16 | 43.50 | 12/8/2016 |
58% |
7/25/2016 | 28 | 44.50 | 10/10/2016 |
21% |
2/4/2016 | 22.60 | 27.46 | 4/8/2016 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -THO - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -FB - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PNRA - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ZLTQ - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 11
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Late list of breakdown stock with many getting hit because of earnings. Bears be selective.
USNA, based in Salt Lake City, Ut., makes and sells nutritional and personal care products. Annual revenues: $986 million. USNA's stock falls sharply Wednesday after reporting disappointing earnings for the fourth quarter. TTD sees more on the downside.
USNA was highlighted by TTD as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
So far today, USNA is trading a heavy 572,916 shares, eight times its average daily volume of 67,000 shares.
The company reported net for the fourth quarter was 87 cents a share.
That was below the 94 cent estimate on the Street.
The stock responded very bearishly to the miss.
USNA's stock gapped sharply lower in the morning undercutting key technical support.
The stock touched an intraday low of $54.25.
The stock bounced up to $58.94 in the morning.
However, it then faded back to around $55 and trended sideways the rest of the day.
Tape Action
USNA's tape action shows the recent block trades. One can see the price for the blocks falling from $62.65 in the prior session to as low as $49.50 in after hours trading on Tuesday.
The stock then had a block of 11,816 shares cross in the morning Wednesday at $57. From there the stock bounced around the mid-50s.
Business
USNA makes nutritional and personal care products. It operates as a direct selling company in the Americas , Europe, and Asia.
Its USANA Nutritionals Essentials product line includes vitamin and mineral supplements for every age group.
Its food product line includes low-glycemic meal replacement shakes and snack bars. Its Sense-beautiful science product line includes personal care products.
Earnings
This year, analysts are forecasting a 5% increase in net to $4.17 a share from the $3.99 in 2016.
Net for the first quarter is expected to leap 31% to 98 cents a share from 75 cents the year before.
For the second quarter, net is expected to be down 1% to $1.02 a share from $1.03 the year before.
The company does tend to be erratic when reporting quarterly earnings versus Street estimates.
Charts
USNA's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower with big volume Wednesday. The move is a response to the earnings. The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bearish.
USNA's 12-month performance chart shows the stock off 5% versus a 24% gain for the stock market. The stock fell sharply following the prior earnings report in October.
Insiders have been heavy sellers of the stock around $61 in late 2016. Some were buyers using stock options around $28 last year.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting for a decline to $47 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $57.
Suitability: Short-term Trading play for Bears
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - USNA - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)