Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Wednesday, February 9 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - February 7 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 23
Overall Quality of Breakouts - ABOVE AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout is large today with many leading issues breaking out. Bulls be selective as stock market is extended and volume is contracting.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AGU - ABOVE AVERAGE |
AGU, based in Calgary, sells agricultural products in the U.S. and overseas. Annual revenues: $9.6 billion. AGU's stock breaks out from a six-week flat base today and hits a 52-week high. The breakout was triggered by AGU's strong quarterly earnings. So far today, volume is running at 5.3 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 2.6 million shares.
TTD featured AGU as a breakout stock at our midsesesion show on the Web Wednesday.
TTD's 10-minute chart shows AGU pushing higher in the morning and cutting across its breakpoint line.
The stock peaked near 98 and then trended sideways.
The tape action today is very bullish during the day. .
The price for the big block trades in recent days rose from $92.30 to $96.98.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 38,185 shares crossed the tape at $95.40. That was up from the prior block trade at $93.07.
AGU sells is products in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay. Its products are nutrients for the agricultural and industrial markets.
The firm's three operating business units are Retail, Wholesale, and Advanced Technologies. Agrium operates 826 retail centers, 37 terminals and 18 distribution centers in North and South America.
AGU's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 60% the past 12 months versus a 24% gain for the S&P 500 index.
AGU's long-term chart shows the stock soaring from 10 in 2003 to a peak of 114 by 2008. The stock then tumbled in the bear market falling to 22 by late 2008. It has since been rallying strongly having made a fourfold move.
AGU's daily chart shows the stock forming a base after a strong advance from 50 to 96 - almost a double. The base is between roughly 95 and 88. The stock's breakout comes with a good expansion in volume.
That was triggered when AGU reported fourth quarter net from operations jumped to $1.10 a share from 19 cents a year ago. If one excludes special charges net was $1.38 a share. That was well above the Street estimate of $1.14 a share.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is now bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is now pushing higher aggressive. It does lag the price of the stock.
TTD sees the key to AGU being its strong earnings outlook and the overall strength in the agricultural area.
Net for the upcoming first quarter should surge 263% to 94 cents a share from 26 cents a year ago. That would be a triple digit gain in net for two quarters with an acceleration in growth. That is very bullish.
The highest estimate for the first quarter is at $1.33 a share. TTD sees chances of an upside surprise.
This year, earnings should climb 49% to $7.09 a share from $4.75 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 13. TTD sees that as low given the earnings outlook. So, the stock should be attractive to value-growth investors.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AGU for a move to 118. A protective stop can be placed near 91. TTD rates AGU a very good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship Good. A key fund buyer recently was Vanguard Windsor Investor Fund, 3-star rated, which purchased 367,278 shares. It is the largest holder with a 0.80% stake. AGU has 150 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Not available. Currently, 22 analysts follow the stock, 17 have a buy, down from 19 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Agrium Inc. - (AGU) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PCLN - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SSYS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GSM - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NTAP - ABOVE AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 8
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Breakdown list increases as several wireless plays get knocked down. Bears become more alert for short plays. TTD's short play from Tuesday was Steris Corp. (STE) - 33.85, down 1.90. Today, the stock has declined to $33.69 and is working well for bears.
SWIR, based in Richmond, BC., provides wireless solutions for the mobile computing markets. Annual revenues: $627 million. SWIR's stock gaps sharply lower today in heavy trading after the company disappoints with earnings. SWIR is trading a heavy 5.4 million shares, 18 times its normal daily volume of 314,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
SWIR reported net for the fourth quarter came in at 3 cents a share compared with a loss of 9 cents a share a year ago. The Street was forecasting 18 cents a share. So, the results were a big disappointment and the stock reacted bearishly to the news.
The stock took a dive in the morning. It hit an intraday low of %11.10. It then trended sideways unable to mount any rally.
SWIR's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $14.22 to as low as $11.14. A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 68,755 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $11.14. That was down from the prior block trade at $11.80. The tape action showed aggressive institutional selling pressure.
SWIR products include wireless modems for mobile computers, embedded modules and software for original equipment manufacturers, intelligent wireless gateway solutions for commercial applications and a platform for delivering device management and end-to-end application services.
Analysts look for SWIR's net for the upcoming first quarter to drop 42% to 8 cents a share from 13 cents a year ago. Overall, net for 2011, though, is projected to rise 81% to 89 cents a share.
SWIR's chart shows the gap drop. Notice the stock rose prior to the news. So, that would indicate the news came as a surprise.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting SWIR for a decline to 9 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 12.50.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SWIR - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)