Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - February 9, 2018

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Friday - February 9, 2018

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  3

Quality of Breakouts -  Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -  Small list of breakouts and selective. Bulls be patient and extremely selective.

Stock market  -  Bearish. Major market averages remain bearish both daily and weekly. Monthly trend still is bullish.  Bulls need to be conservative and careful. Earnings will continue to come in and could impact stocks. Watch closely a company's projections

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Friday

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

MCBC Holdings Inc. (MCFT) - 26.32, up 4.07 - Breakpoint 24.97

Net to Climb 24% in Fiscal 2018 (June), TTD Targets 32 

  MCFT, based in Vonore, Ten., makes ski boats and runabouts. Annual revenues: $229 million. MCFT's stock surges higher Friday and breaks out from a 16-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.

 So far today, MCFT is trading a heavy 691,970 shares, four times its average daily volume of 148,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted MCFT as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.

  The big surge in MCFT was triggered by better than expected earnings for the fiscal second quarter ended in December. MCFT came in with 42 cents a share topping the Street estimate of 33 cents a share. Sales rose 53%.

  Also, the company said sales growth for fiscal year ending in  2018 (June) would be in the high 30 percent area instead of 35%.

  MCFT's stock shot higher in the morning to clear its breakpoint. The stock reached a peak of  $26.74 in the morning.

  The stock then drifted a bit lower by noon. However, the stock came on again in the afternoon to close near its high for the day. That is bullish.

   Tape Action

  MCFT's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $22.25 in the prior session to as high as $26.32.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 20,000 shares crossed the tape at $25.78.

  That was up sharply from the prior block at $22.25 on 3,847 shares late on Thursday.

  Near the close Friday, a block of 12,247 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $26.32.

  That actually came on an up tick from the prior trade at $26.27 on 100 shares.

  So, the accumulation continued.

  Business

  MCFT makes inboard tournament ski boats and V-drive runabouts under the MasterCraft brand.

 The company operates via MasterCraft and Hydra-Sports.

 The MasterCraft product brand consists of recreational performance boats primarily used for water skiing, wakeboarding and wake surfing, and recreational boating.

 The company sells via its dealer network. MCFT produces Hydra-Sports recreational fishing boats.

 It also leases a parts warehouse in the U.K. to expedite service, primarily to dealers and customers in European.

Charts

  MCFT's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating a sensational 78% versus a 13% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were recent light sellers at $18 to $22 a share.

  MCFT's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2015 at $15.30. The stock trended sideways in a range but the then broke out in early 2017. Since then MCFT has been working steadily higher.

  MCFT's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $18 back in September to a peak at $24 by late November.

  The stock put down a base and broke out in January through $24.

  However, it was dragged back into the base with the stock market's selloff.

  Today, though MCFT surges higher to clear its breakpoint line.

  MCFT's CCI momentum indicator is solidly bullish.

  Earnings Outlook:

  This fiscal year ending in June, the Street is currently forecasting a 24% increase in net to $1.61 a share from $1.30 the year before. TTD sees that forecast being lifted.

  Looking out to fiscal 2019 ending in June, analysts predict a 15% increase in profits to $1.85 a share.

  Net for the upcoming fiscal third quarter ending in March is projected to surge 54% to 43 cents a share from 28 cents the year before.

  The highest estimate on the Street is at 44 cents a share. TTD sees chances for an upside earnings surprise.   

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MCFT for a move to $32 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near $24.30.

 TTD rates MCFT a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.

Suitability:  Average Bulls.

                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success -  Bullish.  MCFT  has scored some good gains off its recent breakouts.

Probability - Earnings Response - Very Bullish. MCFT rose 6 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Extremely Bullish.  MCFT rose an average of 6.5% in  February and 8.1% in March.

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 17

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.

Bear Side - Large list of shorts Friday. Stock market sells off sharply, but then recovers. Overall trend of the stock market is down. Bears can be venturesome.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Motorcar Parts of America (MPAA) - 22.01, down 2.50

Profits Miss Badly, TTD Sees Drop to 18

  MPAA, based near Los Angeles, makes and sells auto parts such as starters and alternators. Annual revenues: $421.3 million. MPAA's stock falls sharply Friday after reporting disappointing earnings for the fiscal third quarter ended in December.

  So far today, MPAA is trading 1.4 million shares, ten times its average daily volume of 130,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted MPAA as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.

  MPAA reported net for the fiscal third quarter ended in December of 34 cents a share.

  That was well below the Street estimate of 49 cents a share.

  The stock fell sharply in the morning and touched an intraday low of $20.94.

  The stock then lifted to around $22.40 and trended mostly sideways the rest of the day.

  Tape Action

  MPAA's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $24.51 in the prior session to as low as $21.87.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 15,000 shares crossed the tape at $22.02.

  That was down sharply from the prior block at $24.51 on 8,949 shares the prior session.

  Business

  MPAA makes auto aftermarket parts such as alternators, starters, wheel hub assembly, brake master cylinders, brake power boosters and turbochargers. They are for cars, light trucks and heavy-duty applications.

The company sells its products in North America to auto parts retail and traditional warehouse chains and to auto manufacturers.  

 Earnings:

  This fiscal year ending in March of 2018, analysts have been forecasting a 12% drop in net to $2.06 a share from the $2.36 the year before. However, the estimate for 2018 could come down further after the weak third quarter.

  Net for the fiscal fourth quarter is expected to rise 17% to 68 cents a share from 58 cents the year before.   

Charts:   

  MPAA's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower Friday with big volume. The move cuts below key support near $24.

  MPAA's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 15% versus a 12% gain for the stock market.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MPAA for a decline to $18 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $23.10.

Suitability: Average Bears.

  TTD's special probability research of  Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bullish.  MPAA rose just 6 times after the past 11 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Bullish.  MPAA rose an average of  2.4% in February and 8 in March in the past five years.

   Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2018

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

   Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.

  TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.  

 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

 Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)