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Ticker Tape Digest

“Professional Report”

Tuesday - February 10, 2009

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

TTD Quick Trade Stocks. These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about an  80% win rate.

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Ticker Tape Digest's Midsession Stock Market Video Show

(Posted 12:30 to 1 p.m. NYSE Time)

Go to TTD Stock Market Show For February 10

Go to Shows for Latest Week: Monday - Tuesday - Wednesday - Thursday - Friday
(Best with Cable or DSL - High quality - Windows Media Video)

Total Buy Breakouts today - 0

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull's Strategy -  No breakouts today. Stock market falls sharply and broadly putting it in danger of a breakdown. Bulls remain watchful and conservative now.

(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Unfavorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Today's Feature Stock

(No Breakouts Today. So, TTD features a stock close to a breakout)

American Science & Engineering Inc. (ASEI) - 77.29, up 0.72 - Breakpoint 83

Posts Strong Quarterly Earnings, TTD Targets 95 After a breakout

                TTD's Quality Rating of Potential Breakout Stock - ASEI - ABOVE AVERAGE

     ASEI, based in Billerica, Ma., is a worldwide supplier of X-ray inspection systems. Annual revenues: $160 million. ASEI rose sharply in the morning today after reporting outstanding earnings. However, the stock was dragged back as the stock market fell sharply. TTD sees ASEI as leading stock still in position to move higher in coming weeks. TTD suggests a stop buy at 83 to catch a breakout of ASEI.

  The stock was up as much as seven points in the morning. It has been pulling back with the market as the trading day moves on.

  However, the stock did show strong accumulation in the morning. TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 9,133 shares crossing on a modest up tick to $82.23 from the prior trade at $82.22. The tape action indicated good buying off the strong earnings.

  ASEI reported earnings for the fiscal third quarter ending December 30 jumped to $1.13 a share from 43 cents a year ago. The $1.13 topped the consensus Street estimate of 91 cents a share. It also surpassed the highest estimate of $1.07 a share. That was a big upside earnings surprise. Although the stock faded on the news, probably due to the stock market's fall, ASEI still has the potential to surprise on the upside.

 TTD highlighted ASEI at our midsession show on the web today.

 TTD's performance chart shows ASEI's stock has appreciated 55% the past 12 months. That compares with a 35% decline in the S&P 500 index. So, ASEI is a leader.

   ASEI utilizes a combination of technologies, including patented Z Backscatter technology, Radioactive Threat Detection (RTD), high energy transmission and dual energy transmission X-ray.

 These technologies offer superior X-ray threat detection for plastic explosives, plastic weapons, liquid explosives, dirty bombs and nuclear devices.

 ASEI’s complete range of products include cargo inspection systems for port and border security, baggage screening systems for facility and aviation security, and personnel and passenger screening systems.

 ASEI's systems protect high-threat facilities and help combat terrorism and trade fraud, drug smuggling, weapon smuggling, and illegal immigration and people smuggling.

 The company's customers include leading government agencies, border authorities, military bases, airports and corporations worldwide.

   ASEI's long-term chart shows the stock near a 2-year high. That is good technical action and indicates ASEI is a leader.

  TTD's daily chart shows ASEI's stock driving sharply higher in the morning and then falling back.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) did slide into the bearish zone.

  The accumulation - distribution line was in an up trend, but dipped today so far. That could reverse depending on how the stock finishes at the close. 

  ASEI's net for the fiscal year ending March 30, 2009 is projected to rise 57% to $3.12 a share.

Looking out to fiscal 2010 ending in March, analysts look for a 24% gain in net to $3.86 a share. The stock has a price-earnings ratio of 19 based on fiscal 2010 net.. TTD sees that as low given the current growth rate. So, the stock could be attractive to value-growth investors.

  Net for the upcoming fiscal fourth quarter ending Dec. 31, 2009 should soar 252% to $1.06 cents a share from 30  cents a year ago.

    Strategy Opinion: ASEI responded well to the earnings news today. The market, however, dragged it back. TTD suggests a stop buy at 83 to enter. ASEI is a leading stock with strong earnings.  TTD is targeting ASEI for a move to 95 if it breaks out. A protective stop can be set a 79 after a breakout. TTD rates ASEI a good intermediate-term play with potential to surprise big on the upside.

  Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is 2-star rated Fidelity Advisor Leveraged Fund with a 4.2% stake. It has held its position steady.  ASEI has only 8 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 1.8 million shares. They have been doing some selling the past few months. Their prior stake was at 2.4 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have done a little bit more buying than selling in recent months. Four analysts follow the stock, 2 have a buy, down from 3,  three months ago.   

                     Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.


TTD's Profile Rating

American Science & Engineering Inc.  (ASEI)

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES    
Fund Sponsorship YES   YES
Total Score 13 0 1

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.


Charts of Breakout Stocks


TTD’s Feature Stock Under Accumulation

(Trading strategy: Purchase of these stocks is done when either the stock is still in a base, or has emerged and is acting very bullish. Purchase while a stock still is basing should be a scale-in strategy with the final buying to be done on a breakout from a base. Buying of these stocks when they are trending higher can be done aggressively.)

Grand Canyon Education Inc. (LOPE) - 19.92

Set a Stop Buy at 20.80 to Catch the Breakout

Profits to Leap 180% This Year, TTD Targets 24

  LOPE, based in Phoenix, is a regionally accredited education company focused on working adults. Annual revenues: $140 million. LOPE's stock came public in November of last year. It initially traded around 10. However, the next few months it moved sharply higher getting to a peak of 20.80 in January. The stock has now settled back into a five-week flat base. With strong earnings expected this year, LOPE, although a small cap play, is in good position to breakout at any time.

  The stock is holding well against the big drop in the stock market today.

  LOPE's volume is running at 113,735 shares. Its average daily volume is 153,000 shares.

  The tape action was surprisingly good given the session. TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 12,000 shares crossing around midday. The trade, one of the largest, went off at $19.86, an up tick from the prior trade at $19.83. The tape action showed strong institutional buying interest.

 LOPE was founded in 1949 as a nonprofit school. Grand Canyon converted in 2004 to a for-profit institution.

 It offers graduate and undergraduate degree programs in education, business, and health care. It has about 22,000 students through online programs, a physical campus in Phoenix, and onsite programs at employer facilities. About 62% of students are in master's degree programs.

  TTD's  long-term chart shows the stock in a solid up trend. It is part of the strong acting school stock group.      

  TTD's daily chart of LOPE shows the stock in a five-week, flat base. The key breakpoint is at $20.77. If the stock can top that point it would make a new high and could well draw in buying from the "new-high crowd."

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is neutral but showing sings of improving.

 This year, analysts forecast a 180% surge in net to 50 cents a share from 18 cents a year ago. The highest estimate for the year is at 55 cents a share. The stock has a price-earnings ratio of  39.

  Net for the first quarter of this year is expected to be 9 cents a share. Comparable results for a year ago were not available.

  The company will report net for the fourth quarter of 2008 on Feb. 19, Thursday.

  Analysts are looking for a profit of 2 cents a share. The highest estimate is at a profit of 5 cents a share.

  Strategy Opinion: LOPE has several bullish factors. It is in a strong group, earnings are improving and the stock is near a new high. TTD suggests a stop buy at 20.80 to enter. We are targeting the stock for a move to 25 after a breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 19 after a breakout. TTD rates LOPE a slightly above average intermediate-term play.

  Sponsorship: Not available. The company has 19 million shares outstanding.

  Insider Activity: Not available. Four analysts follow the stock and all have a strong buy.   

Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl. Inc. (VRX) - 22.04

Set a Stop Buy at 23.70 to catch the Breakout

Stock near breakpoint, tape bullish. Net to soar 188% in 2009.

Cephalon Inc.  (CEPH) - 77.73

Set a Stop Buy at 80.55 to catch the Breakout

Stock positioned to breakout, tape bullish. Net to Climb 23% This Year.

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 6

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.

Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today even though stock market fall sharply and broadly. Bears can be venturesome. TTD's feature short from Monday was Mercury General Corp. (MCY) - 34.60, off 6.60. Today, MCY falls 1.09 to 33.36.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Corrections Corp America (CXW) - 12.16, off 2.86

Cuts Earnings Forecast, TTD Sees Drop to 9

CXW, based in Nashville, Ten., is the country's largest operator of private correctional and detention facilities. Annual revenues: $1.6 billion. CXW's stock falls sharply today after the company cut its estimate of earnings for the first quarter. The stock has been trending lower and today gaps down on the news. So far today, CXW is trading 6.7 million shares, five times its normal daily volume of 1.2 million shares.

  CXW fell sharply at the opening and worked lower the rest of the day. It was unable to mount a significant rally.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the big block trades for the past two sessions. One can sees the price for the blocks declining from $15.38 to $12.60. The tape action indicates heavy institutional selling pressure, which is bearish.

  CXW said earnings for the first quarter would be 24 to 26 cents a share. That is below Street consensus estimates of 29 cents a share and the lowest estimate of 28 cents a share.

  The company said for the year net would be $1.10 to $1.20 a share. That is well below the Street estimate of $1.34 a share.

 CXW has over 70,000 beds in 63 facilities of which it owns 38. Along with providing residential services, the firm offers rehabilitation and education programs and substance abuse treatment.

  TTD's daily chart shows the stock in a clear down trend from 28 to 12. It then tried to form a bottom. However, today's breakdown points the stock on Southern course. The big expansion in volume indicates a flight away from the stock.

 TTD is targeting CXW for a decline to 9 within the next few months.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)