Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, January 27 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331.
Monday - February 10, 2020
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts - 10
Quality of Breakouts - Average.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Breakout list selective. Bulls be conservative.
Stock market - Market remains bullish in all time sectors, although the Daily Dow is in a consolidation pattern.
Comment - Market remains solidly bullish. Earnings will continue to flow in so one needs to be watchful.
See Latest Earnings Reports - A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Key earnings beats - TCO, EPC, MCY, Elvt and CNA.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GSHD - ABOVE AVERAGE |
GSHD, based in Westlake, Tex., is an independent personal lines insurance agency. Annual revenues: $60 million. GSHD's stock moves sharply higher Monday and breaks out from its four-month, cup-and-handle base.
The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.
TTD sees more on the upside.
So far today, GSHD is trading 121,932 shares. Its average daily volume is 149,000 shares.
GSHD's stock broke out in the morning.
The stock reached $55 and then trended sideways the rest of the day holding the bulk of its gain.
Tape Action
GSHD's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $52.40 in the prior session to as high as $55.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 601 shares crossed the tape at $52.63.
That was up from the prior block the prior session at $52.40 on 4,656 shares.
Business
GSHD distributes personal insurance line products and services in the U.S.
The company underwrites personal lines and small commercial lines risks for 80 insurance companies.
GSHD's provides homeowner's insurance; auto insurance and other personal lines.
The company basically deals its projects through two segments: the corporate channel and franchise channel.
Charts
GSHD's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 105% versus a 22% gain for the stock market.
GSHD insiders were buyers using stock options. The price was not disclosed.
Insiders were sellers at $44 to $51 a share.
GSHD's long-term chart shows the stock coming public at $12 back in early 2019.
The stock worked its way to a peak at $51 by early 2019. The stock went into a long-term consolidation. It has now broken and has pushed to a new all-time high.
GSHD's daily chart shows the stock forming a cup-and-handle base.
The stock breaks out by cutting through a breakpoint zone.
The move comes with a widening of the daily spread.
GSHD's CCI momentum indicator is bullish.
Earnings Outlook
For 2019, the Street predicts a 100% surge in net to 40 cents a share from 20 cents the prior year.
The stock has a price-earnings ratio of 135.
Net for the fourth quarter should jump 600% to 7 cents a share from one cent the prior year.
Looking out to 2020, the Street is calling for a 75 jump in net to 70 cents a share from the anticipated 40 cents for 2019.
Net for the first quarter should climb 88% to 30 cents a share from the 16 cents the prior year.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting GSHD for a move to $65 within the next few months, or sooner.
A protective stop can be placed near $51.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Breakout Success |
Bullish |
GSHD scored big gains off recent breakouts. |
Response to Net |
Bullish |
GSHD rose 4 times after 6 earnings reports. |
Seasonal Success |
Bearish |
GSHD avg. gain 7% in Feb., loss 10% in March prior years. |
Earnings Beats |
Bearish |
GSHD beat Street net estimate one time after 6 reports. |
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
62% |
5/2/2019 | 30.69 | 49.91 | 7/3/2019 |
15% |
2/14/2019 | 29.32 | 33.74 | 2/21/2019 |
17% |
8/31/2018 | 31.02 | 36.43 | 9/14/2018 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Goosehead Insurance Inc. (GSHD) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CRMT - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DL - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NVDA - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ABBY - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action for Thursday - 5
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of shorts Monday. Bears be conservative.
DNOW, based in Houston, Tex., is a global distributor to the oil and gas and industrial markets. Annual revenues: $3.1 billion. DNOW's stock falls sharply Monday and undercuts key technical support.
So far today, DNOW is trading 909,255 shares. Its average daily volume is 87,000 shares.
TTD sees more on the downside. TTD highlighted DNOW as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.
DNOW's stock fell in the morning and undercut key technical support at $9.97.
The stock touched an intraday low at $9.44 in the morning.
It then worked slightly higher the rest of the day to trim some of its loss.
Tape Action
DNOW's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $10.25 in the prior session to as low as $9.48 in the morning.
A key bearish trade came near the close when a massive block of 70.805 shares crossed the tape at $9.65.
That was within a sequence started by a block trade at $9.66 at 2,000 shares.
The heavy selling near the close is very bearish.
Business
DNOW operates under the DistributionNOW and Wilson Export brands.
DNOW's energy product are used in the oil and gas industry. It includes upstream drilling and completion, exploration and production, midstream infrastructure development and downstream petroleum refining. ,
It provides supply chain management to drilling contractors and exploration and production operators.
Earnings:
For 2019, the Street is forecasting a 14% decline in net to 31 cents a share from the 36 cents the prior year.
For 2020, they see a rebound with net up 14% to 35 cents a share.
However, near-term the Street sees a big drop in quarterly net.
Net for the fourth quarter should drop to one cent a share from 11 cents the prior year.
Then in the first quarter of 2020, they predict a 42% decline in net to 7 cents a share from the 12 cents the prior year.
Charts:
DNOW's daily chart shows the stock cutting below key support with a widening of the daily spread and a pick up in volume.
The stock is poised to make a new all-time high. The stock was as high as $35.77 back in 2014.
DNOW's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 28% versus a 22% gain for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DNOW for a decline to $7.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $10.80.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's Stock Probability research of Prior Performance:
Response to Net |
Bearish |
DNOW rose 6 times after 15 earnings reports. |
Seasonal Success |
Bearish |
DNOW fell 1.4% in Feb., rose 0.6% in March in prior years. |
Earnings Beats |
Bullish |
DNOW beat Street estimate 13 times after 20 reports. |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DNOW - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381.
Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.
TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)