By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 19
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Continued good number of breakouts today. Stock market pushes higher. Bulls be selective as stock market is extended and volume is contracting.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011 - update February 4)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -BWA - ABOVE AVERAGE
BWA, based in Auburn Hills, Mich., produces engineered products for the auto industry. Annual revenues: $1.5 billion. BWA's stock breaks out today from an eight-week flat base. TTD spotlighted the stock recently as a potential breakout. So far today, BWA is trading 4 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 2 million shares.
BWA's stock was highlighted by TTD at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
BWA's 10-minute chart shows the stock pushing higher in the morning. It cleared its breakpoint and then continued to move comfortably above it.
In the afternoon, it edged higher.
TTD's clip of the tape shows BWA's recent big block trades.
The past few days BWA's block trades have climbed higher in price from $70.47 to a peak of 76.55.
That shows strong institutional demand. Friday morning a key bullish block trade of 152,400 shares crossed the tape at $74.30. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $72.38.
The strong action was due to BWA coming in with fourth quarter profits of 89 cents a share, up from 45 cents a year ago. the 89 cents topped the consensus estimate of 83 cents a share. It was the fourth straight quarter that BWA has topped the consensus estimate on the Street.
BWA produces components primarily for powertrain applications. They are sold globally, primarily to original equipment manufacturers of light-vehicles such as passenger cars, sport-utility vehicles, vans and light-trucks.
The company’s products are also sold to makers of commercial trucks, buses and agricultural and off-highway vehicles.
The company has plants in the United States, Europe and Asia. The Company operates in two segments: Engine and Drivetrain.
BWA's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 118% versus a 22% gain for the S&P 500 index.
BWA's long-term chart shows the stock hitting a new all-time high. That is very bullish. The stock has bounced back strongly from its bear market low of 15 in late 2008.
BWA's daily chart shows the stock trending higher strongly from 40 to 75 by December. The stock then put down a flat base with a slight bias to the downside.
The stock gradually move to the top of the base and then broke out strongly with expanding volume.
The stock's technical are bullish. The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has hit a new high. That is good confirmation of strong buying.
This year, analysts forecast a 34% gain in net to $4.14 a share from $3.07 in 2010. TTD sees chances for that forecast to be boosted. The stock sells with a p-e ratio of 18 based on 2011 net. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Net for the upcoming first quarter is expected to climb 40% to 91 cents a share from 65 cents a year ago. The company's sales growth is running at 28%.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting BWA for a move to 94 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 72. TTD rates BWA a very good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Pioneer Cullen Value Fund with a 2.3% stake. It has held its position steady. The largest buyer lately was 2-star rated CGM Focus Fund which purchased 1.9 million shares recently. BWA has 113.8 million shares.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders were heavy sellers recently at $59.46. Currently, 14 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, down from 7 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Borgwarner Inc. - (BWA)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PNRA - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - XXIA - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CMG - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MOS - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today as stock market moves higher. Bears remain watchful and selective.
EXPE, based in Bellevue, Wa., is an online travel company. Annual revenues: $3.2 billion. EXPE's stock falls sharply today after the company reported a decline in fourth quarter profits. So far today, EXPE is trading an extremely heavy 42.1 million shares, ten times its normal daily volume of 4.3 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
EXPE reported net for the fourth quarter declined to 25 cents a share from 35 cents a year ago. The Street was expecting net of 33 cents a share. So, it was a big disappointment and the first in four quarters. The stock's response was bearish.
EXPE's stock moved lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low of $21 around midday. In the late afternoon it rallied slightly.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $25.98 to $21.02. That shows heavy institutional selling pressure. A key bearish trade came in the morning when 154,980 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $21.95. That was down sharply from the prior block at $25.79.
EXPE provides stand-alone and package basis, travel products provided by numerous airlines, lodging properties, car rental companies, destination service providers and cruise lines.
This year, analysts forecast a 19% rise in EXPE's net to $1.83 a share from $1.54 a year ago.
EXPE's daily chart shows the stock with a big gap drop on big volume. The action would indicate institutional money fleeing the stock.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting EXPE for a decline to 17 within the next few months or sooner. TTD sees EXPE as a trading short. A protective stop can be placed near 22.60. .
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EXPE - AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)