By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco email@example.com.For service, email Beverly Owen firstname.lastname@example.org. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small as stock market remains in an up trend. Bulls be selective. Market holding well in February.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NSM - ABOVE AVERAGE
NSM, based Lewisville, Tex., provides non-bank residential mortgage services. Annual revenues: $758 million. NSM's stock breaks out today from a six-week, cup-and-handle base and makes a new all-time high. The stock came public in March of 2012. It is a star performer.
So far today, NSM is trading a heavy 1.7 million shares. its average daily volume 1.1 million shares.
TTD highlighted NSM as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
NSM's 10-minute chart shows the stock pushing above its breakpoint in the morning. It held through most of the day. Late in the session the stock came on strong to finish near its high for the session. That is bullish.
NSM's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from a low of $36.99 on Tuesday to a peak of $40.86 by late Wednesday.
The stock institutional buying near the close is bullish.
The key bullish trade came when a block of 19,393 shares crossed the tape at $40.86 near Wednesday's close. That was up from the prior block trade at $40.
NSM is a residential mortgage service provider.
The Company serviced over 645,000 residential mortgage loans in its latest year.
The company’s clients include national and regional banks, government organizations, securitization trusts, private investment funds and other owners of residential mortgage loans and securities.
It is a partner of financial organizations, including government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and other regulated institutions. The company is a licensed servicer in all 50 states. In addition to its core servicing business, NSM has a fully integrated loan originations platform and suite of adjacent businesses.
NSM's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 185% versus a 19% gain for the S&P 500 index. The chart also shows heavy insider buying in December. That is very bullish.
NSM's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in March and trading around 14. The stock then put down a flat base and broke out in May. It has since trended higher forming bases and the breaking out. It has an excellent long-term bullish pattern.
NSM's daily chart shows the breakout from a cup-and-handle base. It carries the stock to a new high on expanding volume.
The base was set up above a rising 50-day moving average line indicating the stock remains in a strong up trend.
NSM's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has been trending sideways recently, but is in an overall up trend.
This year, analysts are forecasting NSM will racl i[ a 72% gain in earnings to $4.01 a share from an anticipated $2.34 a share for 2012.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 10 based on 2013 estimated net. TTD sees that as low making the stock an attractive value play.
Net for the fourth quarter should come in at 65 cents a share. There was no comparison with a year ago.
Going out to the first quarter of 2013, the Street looks for a modest 5% rise in net to 70 cents a share from 67 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD sees NSM's breakout as solid supported by good earnings. TTD is targeting NSM for a move to 50 withinthe next few months or sooner.
A protective stop can be placed near 37.
TTD rates NSM a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Good. A large fund buyer recently was 4-star rated Hennessy Small Cap Financial Investor Fund which purchased 170,000 shares. It has a 0.19% stake. The largest fund holder is Osterweis Fund with a 0.65% interest. It has a 4-star rating. It was a recent seller of 65,520 shares.
NSM has 90.4 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 95% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Bullish. Insiders were buyers around $14 back in March. They have done no selling. Six analysts follow the stock, 5 have a buy, up from 4 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Nationstar Mortgage Holdings - (NSM)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AWI - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - POL - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PCYC - BELOW AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 6
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks so far today. Bears be selective. Stock market still holding up trend.
CLF, based in Cleveland, produces iron ore and coal. Annual revenues: $6 billion. CLF's stock fall sharply today after the company reported a loss for the fourth quarter and cut its dividend. So far today, CLF is trading a heavy 34.2 million shares, six times its normal daily volume of 5.9 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
CLF's stock fell steadily in the morning and touched an intraday low of 29.02. The stock then trended sideways in the afternoon and stated to show weakness again late in the session.
CLF's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks tumbling from $36.74 on Tuesday to as low as $29.70 today.
A key bearish block trade cam when 630,136 shares crossed the tape a $30.70. That was down sharply from the prior block at $36.61.
The tape action showed aggressive institutional selling pressure.
CLF posted a fourth quarter loss of $11.36 a share compared with a profit of $1.30 a share a year ago.
Excluding the non-cash items fourth-quarter net income attributable to common shareholders was 62 cents a share compared with $1.49 a year ago. The decrease was primarily driven by lower sales margin.
CLF cut its quarterly cash dividend rate by 76% to 15 cents a share
For 2013, analysts are forecasting a 10% drop in net to $2.90 a share.
CLF's chart shows the stock gapping lower on big volume today. The decline reinforces the stock's down trend. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a down trend indicating clear selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CLF for a decline to 25 within the next few months or sooner. A protectiv stop buy can be placed near 31.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CLF - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)