Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Friday, February 14, 2014
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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Friday, February 14, 2014 |
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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 10, 2013 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market
rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs. 
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 10
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list very selective today. Stock market continues to rally across trading range. Bulls be conservative.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TOL - AVERAGE |
TOL, based in Horsham, Pa. builds homes. Annual revenues: $2.7 billion. TOL's stock breaks out today from a 10-month, cup-and-handle base. The stock has been pushing up against resistance for several weeks. Today, it clears it. So far today, TOL is trading 3 million shares. Its average daily volume is 3.4 million shares. 
TTD featured TOL as a potential breakout in late January.
TOL's 10-minute chart shows the stock working higher the past few sessions. 
Friday, it bumped up against its breakpoint line and then around midday it broke through to the upside.
The stock then pushed higher and was able to close near its high for the session.
The 10-minute chart shows strong buying in the afternoon, which is bullish.
TOL's tape action shows the recent block trades
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One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $36.89 to as high as $37.82.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 5,125 shares crossed the tape at 37. That was up from the prior block trade at $36.98.
TOL builds single-family detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities.
It caters to move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, age-qualified and second-home buyers in the United States.
It also builds and sells homes in urban infill markets through Toll City Living(R) (City Living).
The company operates in 19 states. It also operates in the affluent urban markets of Hoboken and Jersey City, New Jersey, New York City, New York and Philadelphia. Its single-family detached home communities offer at least four different house floor plans, each with several substantially different architectural styles.
TOL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 20% versus a breakeven for the S&P 500 index. Housing stocks have been acting strong lately. A key leader in the group NVI Inc. (NVI) broke out to the upside recently.
TOL's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 6 back in 2001 to an all-time peak of $58.67 in 2005. The stock then fell back during the bear market. It hit a low of $13.16 in 2011.
However, since then TOL has been working higher as the housing market has improved. 
TOL's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 30 back in October to around 37 by December. The stock then set up a tight flat base.
Today's breakout is classic as TOL pushes through key upside resistance.
The base was set up above a rising 50-day moving average line, which is bullish.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been mostly bullish the past four months.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) lags. However, the past few months it has been trending sideways. It would be good to see that improve.
TTD sees a strong earnings outlook as being the key driver to send the stock higher.
Earnings for the fiscal year ending in October should leap 67% to $1.67 a share from $1 a year ago. Analysts have been lifting their forecast.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 22. TTD sees that as low given the earnings growth outlook.
Looking ahead to fiscal 2015 ending in October, the Street projects a 42% jump in net to $2.37 a share from the anticipated $1.67 for fiscal 2014.
Earnings for the up coming fiscal first quarter ending in January should surge 813% to 18 cents a share from 2 cents a year ago. 
The highest estimate on the Street is at 24 cents a share. TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise. The prior two quarters TOL topped the consensus estimate by 10 cents a share and 11 cents.
Looking out to the fiscal second quarter ending in April profits should jump 401% to 35 cents a share from 7 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TOL for a move to 47 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 35.
TTD rates TOL a very good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Very Good. One of the largest fund buyers recently was 3-star rated CGM Realty Fund which purchased 2 million shares.
The largest fund holder is 3-star rated American Funds Growth Fund of America with a 3.5% stake. It was a recent buyer of 600,000 shares.
TOL has 177.3 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 76% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. The company has granted a lot of stock options. Insider were recent sellers from $36 to $37. Currently, 12 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, down from 7 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Toll Brothers Inc. - (TOL) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NTIC - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TRW - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PCAR - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OMC - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Small list of short plays. Bears remain conservative and watch all positions. Stock market in trading range.
STMP, based near Los Angeles, provides services for mailing and shipping of packages. Annual revenues: $125 million. STMP's stock falls sharply Friday due to the company forecasting a disappointing outlook for revenues. So far today, STMP is trading a heavy 1.6 million shares, eight-times its average daily volume of 200,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
TTD highlighted STMP as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
STMP said earnings for the fourth quarter rose 30% to 61 cents a share from 47 cents a year ago.
However, revenues for the quarter came in at $32.4 million. That was below Street estimates of $34 million.
Analysts said subscriber growth slowed in the fourth quarter.
For 2014, STMP is forecasting net at $2.10 to $2.50 a share on revenues of $125 to $140 million.
That is below Street projections of net of $142.7 million and net of $2.54 a share.
STMP's stock gapped lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 33.97. In the afternoon, it lifted slightly to trim its loss.
The stock's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $39.08 to as low as $34.32.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 20,346 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $36.73. That was down sharply from the prior block at $36.73. The tape showed aggressive institutional selling pressure.
STMP's core mailing and shipping services allow one to select a carrier, print US postage or shipping labels from multiple carriers, schedule a pick-up, track a package and apply enterprise-wide business rules to manage and account for mailing and shipping costs.
STMP's daily chart shows the stock trending lower from 48 in November to 37. The stock tried to form a bottom but is now breaking hard to the downside with big volume.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting STMP for a decline to 28 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 35.80.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - STMP - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
