Ticker Tape Digest

Thursday - February 14,  2019

  TTD does not publish Friday. Stock Market is closed Monday. We resume Tuesday.

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Ticker Tape Digest's Midsession Stock Market Video Show (Posted around 1 p.m. NYSE Time) Go to TTD Stock Market Show For - Thursday Go to Shows for Latest Week: Monday - Tuesday - Wednesday - Thursday -  Friday (Best with Cable or DSL - High quality - Windows Media Video)

Thursday - February 14, 2019

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  12

Quality of Breakouts -  Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -  Large list of breakouts with some interesting plays.

Stock market  -  Bullish in all time sectors.

Comment -  Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market looks to be setting up a consolidation.

See Latest Earnings Reports -  A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Thursday: AEM, BL, ACOR, DLHC, AZN and AIRG.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks near breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.  They can also be bought soon after a follow through move, sometimes on an intraday pullback. )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Sleep Number Corp. (SNBR) - 41.13, up 5.27 - Breakpoint 39.91

Net Tops Estimates, TTD Targets 48 

    SNBR, based in Minneapolis, makes beds. It was formerly known as  Select Comfort Corp. Annual revenues: $1.4 billion. SNBR's stock breaks out Thursday from a 14-week, cup-and-handle base.

  The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.

  The breakout was triggered by better-than-expected earnings.

  TTD highlighted SNBR as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday. TTD sees more on the upside.

  So far on Thursday, SNBR is trading a heavy 4.2 million shares, eight times its average daily volume of 504,000 shares.

  The company reported net for the fourth quarter climbed to 81 cents a share. That topped the consensus estimate on the Street of 73 cents a share.

  SNBR rose in the morning to cleared its breakpoint line.

  The stock reached an intraday peak at $42.90 in the morning. It then backed off slightly and trended sideways the rest of the day.  

   Tape Action

  SNBR's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $35.86 in the prior session to as high as $42.47 during the day.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 11,266 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $40.51.

  That was up from the prior block late on Wednesday at $35.86 on 51,814 shares.

  Near the close Thursday a massive block of 139,540 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $41.13.

  That came on an up tick from the prior trade at $41.125 on 100 shares.

   Business

 SNBR sells beds and bedding accessories.

Its Sleep Number bed offers SleepIQ technology sensors that work directly with the bed's DualAir technology to track each individual's sleep.

 It is designed to solve sleep issues.

 The company also sells FlextFit adjustable bases, Sleep Number pillows, sheets and other bedding products.   

  Charts

  SNBR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 11% versus a 3% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were buyers using stock options at 94 cents  to $28 a share. They also bought in the open market at $27 a share.

  They were recent sellers at $31 to $40 a share.

  SNBR's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $5 a share in 2010 to a peak near $35 by 2012.

  The stock then went into a long term consolidation. It emerged in 2017 with a push to $36. The stock has now cleared another long-term base and is at a new all-time high. That is bullish.    

  SNBR's daily chart shows the stock breaking out from a flat base on a gap move and big volume.

  The push to a new all-time high is bullish in that there is no overhead resistance.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.

  Earnings Outlook

  This year analysts are forecasting a 23% increase in net to $2.37 a share from the $1.92 the year before

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 17. TTD sees that as attractive for value investors.

  Looking out to 2020, the Street predicts a 22% jump in net to $2.88 a share from the anticipated $2.37 this year.

   Quarterly earnings growth should show an acceleration in growth. That is bullish.

   Net for the first quarter should climb 38% to 72 cents a share from the 52 cents the year before.

  The highest estimate on the Street is at 80 cents a share.

  Going out to the second quarter, analysts expect a 550% leap in net to 13 cents a share from the 2 cents the year before.   

Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting SNBR for a move to $48 off this breakout.

A protective stop can be placed near $39.

Intermediate-Term Rating:  Average.

Suitability:   Average Bulls.

                                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish -  SNBR scored some good gains off some of its recent breakouts.

Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bullish -  SNBR rose 7 times after the past 12 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Bullish. -  SNBR averaged a gain of 2.9% in February and a gain of 5.8% in March the past several years. 

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

 Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  -  Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today -  5

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Small list of shorts Thursday, but some interesting plays for aggressive bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Centurylink Inc. (CTL) - 12.78

Cuts Dividend, TTD Sees Drop to 10

  CTlL, based in Monroe, La., is a large diversified communications firm. Annual revenues: $17.8 billion. CTL's stock falls sharply Thursday after the company cut its dividend. TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, CTL is trading 86.4 million shares, five times its average daily volume of 15.4 million shares.

  CTL's stock fell in the morning undercutting key technical support. The stock continues lower touching an intraday low at $12.74 in the afternoon.

  The stock then trended sideways into the close.

    Tape Action

  CTL's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $14.70 in the prior session to as low as $12.78 Thursday.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 1.2 million shares crossed the tape at $12.95.

  That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $14.70 on 900,591 shares on Wednesday

   Business

 CTL provides communications services to residential and business customers.

 The company provides local and long-distance voice, broadband, Multi-Protocol Label Switching, private line, Ethernet, colocation, cloud hosting and video services.

 Earnings:

  This year, analysts are forecasting a 2% increase in net to $1.21 a share from the $1.19 the year before.

  Nine analysts follow the stock.   

Charts:  

  CTL's daily chart shows the stock trending lower from $24 back in August down to around $14 by December. The stock tried to rally, but then faded back. Thursday, it cuts below support with massive volume.

  CTL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 25% versus a 3% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders have been recent sellers at $15.90 to $24 a share.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CTL for a decline to $10 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $13.30.

Suitability:  Conservative Bears.

  TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Very Bearish.  -  CTL rose 2 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bearish. -   CTL averaged a decline of 0.3% in February and a decline of 1.4% in March the past several years.

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2019

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)