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Aggressive Investor Bullish- Go To TTD Quick Trade Setups (win rate 70%) - Monday, February 15 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list remains expands sharply as stock market rallies broadly. Bulls be selective. The stock market has the look of setting up a trading range.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TPX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TPX, based in Lexington, Ky., makes mattresses and pillows. Annual revenues: $831 million. TPX's stock breaks out from a well-formed, seven-week, cup-and-handle base today. The move carries the stock to a 52-week high. Its all-time high is 37.86 set in 2007. So far today, TPX is trading 1.2 million shares. Its average daily volume is 1.8 million shares. 
TPX's 5-minute chart shows the stock gapping higher in the morning to clear its breakpoint. The stock, however, sagged back an under cut for a few minutes.
It then rallied and continued to edge higher the rest of the day.
TPX has a beta of 2.0 versus 1.0 for the stock market. Beta is a measure of volatility. Thus, TPX is twice as volatile as the stock market.
TTD is spotting good action in some homebuilding and housing and construction related stocks. They were hammered down during the bear market.
TPX's table shows the big block trades the past few sessions. One can see the price for the blocks rising from $27.14 to $28.07. That shows good institutional buying interest. A key trade today took place in the afternoon when a big block of 29,600 shares crossed at $28.07. That was up from the $28.05 for the prior block.
TTD sees the tape action as bullish.
TPX sells its mattresses and pillows in 80 countries under the TEMPUR and Tempur-Pedic brands.
The Company has two operating segments: Domestic and International. The Domestic operating segment consists of United States manufacturing facilities, whose customers include its United States distribution subsidiary and certain third party distributors in the Americas.
The international segment consists of its manufacturing facility in Denmark, whose customers include all of the Company’s distribution subsidiaries and third party distributors outside the Domestic segment.
TPX's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up a sensational 300% easily outperforming the 30% gain for the stock market.
TPX's long-term chart shows the stock on the comeback trail after suffering a big drop during the bear market. It is now trending higher long-term 
TPX's daily chart shows the stock climbing in recent months from 16 to 28. The base set up is a cup-and-handle. The stock has just edged out from the base.
The basing work is above the 50-day moving average line, which is bullish.
The volume today was not heavy. It will be important to see TPX show follow through action and a pick up in volume. That would indicate it is attracting important buying.
TPX's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is working higher. So, that shows there is buying interest.
This year, TPX is expected to show a 34% gain in net to $1.50 a share from $1.12 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 18. TTD sees that as attractive for value investors since the p/e is below the earnings growth rate.
Looking out to 2011, the Street projects a 21% improvement in net to $1.81 a share.
TPX's net for the upcoming first quarter will be very strong. Analysts look for a 72% gain in net to 31 cents a share from 18 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 37 cents a share. TTD sees chances for at least a modest upside surprise. The past four quarters, TPX topped the consensus estimate by one to eight cents a share.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TPX for a move to 35 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 25. TTD rates TPX a very good intermediate-term play because of its solid earnings outlook and modest p/e.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund with a 2.7% stake. It was a recent buyer of 5,900 shares. The largest fund buyer that is not an index fund was Columbia Small Cap Growth Fund, 4-star rated, which picked up 128,300 shares. TPX has 73.7 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers using stock options, but many turned around and sold. The latest selling was around $27. Currently, 14 analysts follow the stock, 7 have a buy, up from 6 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Tempur Pedic Intl. Inc. - (TPX) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 12 | 0 | 2 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DGIT - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RVBD - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - THS - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MEDW - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Only a few breakdown stocks today as stock market rallies broadly. Bears be patient and selective.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
BRO, based in Daytona Beach, Fla., is a diversified insurance agency, wholesale brokerage, insurance programs and service organization. Annual revenues: BRO's stock falls sharply today after the company reported disappointing fourth quarter earnings. So far today, BRO is trading 1.7 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 811,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
BRO reported earnings for the fourth quarter fell to 17 cents a share from 24 cents a year ago. The 17 cents was well below the consensus estimate of 22 cents a share and also the lowest forecast on the Street of 19 cents a share.
The stock reacted bearishly to the negative news.
The company sells to its customers insurance products and services, primarily in the property, casualty and employee benefits areas.
As an agent and broker, Brown & Brown does not assume underwriting risks. Instead, the company provides its customers with non-investment insurance contracts, as well as other targeted, customized risk management products and services.
The company is compensated primarily by commissions paid by insurance companies and by fees paid by customers for certain services.
For 2010, analysts are forecasting only a 3% increase in net.
BRO's daily chart shows the stock breaking down hard with a widening of the spread. The technicals of the chart show no hint of weakness in advance of the earnings news. Thus, the news was a big surprise.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting BRO for a decline to 13.30 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 18.10.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
