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Ticker Tape Digest

Tuesday - February 17, 2009

                                     By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Total Buy Breakouts today - 3

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull's Strategy -  Just a few breakouts today with gold stocks leading the way. The price of gold to soars $25.30 to $967.50. Bulls remain patient and selective. Market remains very vulnerable to the downside.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Unfavorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Today's Feature Breakout Stock

Treehouse Foods Inc. (THS) - 28.46, up 0.49 - Breakpoint 28.20

Profits to Rise 12% This Year, TTD Targets 34 After a breakout

                TTD's Quality Rating of Potential Breakout Stock - EBS -  AVERAGE

  THS, based in Westchester, Ill., makes private label and regionally branded consumer packaged goods. Annual revenues: $1.5 billion sales. THS moves higher today bucking the down trend of the stock market. THS advance carries it up and out from an eight-week base. The stock is within striking distance of making a new all-time high. It just needs to get over 33.20.

  THS is trading 488,367 shares. Its average daily volume is 512,000 shares.

  So, the breakout does not come with a big expansion in volume. TTD's clip of the tape shows THS was under accumulation late on Friday. A big block of 11,790 shares crossed on a modest up tick to $28 form the prior trade at $27.97.

  The company sells pickles under the names Farmans, Nalley's, Peter Piper, and Steinfeld, and non-dairy creamers under the names Cremora and Mocha Mix.

THS makes aseptic and refrigerated foods, including cheese sauces, puddings, and liquid egg substitute.

  TTD's performance chart shows THS's stock has appreciated 20% the past 12 months. It has outperformed the S&P 500 index which is down 40% during the same time frame.

  TTD's long-term chart shows THS rallied from 20 late last year to 28 and then formed its base. There is overhead resistance around 30.     

  THS' daily chart shows the stock's base. There was a shakeout four sessions ago. However, the stock has since bounced back strongly. Today, it just edges over the breakpoint line.

  The stock's technicals are strong. The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is strongly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has hit a new high. That is extremely bullish. It shows that buying in the stock has been strong. That could be very supportive for the stock to move higher.

  This year, analysts predict THS's earnings will increase 12% to $1.82 a share from $1.62 a year ago. The stock has 15 price-earnings ratio. TTD sees that as reasonable.

  Profits in the first half will be strong. Net for the upcoming first quarter should increase 20% to 36 cents a share from 30 cents a year ago. The high estimate on the Street is at 37 cents a share.

  TTD sees chances for a mild upside surprise with earnings. The prior quarter, the fourth, THS topped the consensus Street estimate by 4 cents a share, or 8%.

  Strategy Opinion: THS is a very conservative bull breakout play. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 34. A protective stop can be placed near 26. TTD rates THS an average intermediate-term play with low downside risk.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Keeley Small Cap Value Fund with a 5.8% stake. It has held its position steady. 5-star rated Fidelity Advisor Small Cap Fund, 5-star rated, was a recent buyer of 86,000 shares. THS has 31 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 15.5 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Slightly Bullish. Insiders have been light buyers in recent months. Five analysts follow the stock, 2 have a buy, down from 3 three months ago.   

                     Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.


TTD's Profile Rating

Treehouse Foods Inc.  (THS)

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion   YES
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term     YES
Price Daily Spread   YES
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term     YES
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group   YES
Prior Breakout Success     YES
Fund Sponsorship YES    
Total Score 8 0 6

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.

Charts of Breakout Stocks  

                TTD's Quality Rating of Potential Breakout Stock - AU - AVERAGE

                TTD's Quality Rating of Potential Breakout Stock - LIHR - AVERAGE


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 17

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.

Bear Side - Large number of breakdown stocks today as Dow breaks below key support. Bears be alert and aggressive. TTD short from Thursday,  PH Glatfelter Co. (GLT) - 6.97, off 1.22, falls today. It is down 0.33 to 6.68 and working well for bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Cummins Inc. (CMI) - 21.89, off 2.73

Earnings To Tumble 43%, TTD Sees Slide to 17

CMI, based in Columbus, Ind., makes diesel and natural gas engines, electric power generation systems, and engine-related products. Annual revenues: $14.6 billion. CMI gaps lower today to set off a TTD short play. The stock had been weak the past few sessions. So far today, CMI is trading 2.9 million shares. Its average daily volume is 3.7 million shares.

  CMI gapped lower at the opening. It had a slight bounce afterwards and then trended sideways.

  The stock has a beta of 1.97. That compares with the beta of the stock market of 1.0. That means CMI is twice as volatile as the market.

  CMI sells its products to original-equipment manufactures and distributors, including Chrysler and Volvo.

CMI has a network of 500 independent distribution centers and 5,200 dealer locations in 190 countries.

With the slowdown in the economy hurting CMI, analysts predict a 43% drop in CMI's net to $2.38 a share from $4.21 a year ago.

Profits for the first quarter should slump 57% and in the second quarter 52%.

TTD's daily chart shows CMI trying to put in a bottom after falling from roughly 60 to 20. However, the stock gaps lower today undercutting key support. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is slightly bearish. The accumulation - distribution line is starting to roll over.

  TTD is targeting CMI for a decline to 17 within the next few months or sooner.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)