Go To TTD's Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch Stock Lists for Wednesday, February 18
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Go To TTD's Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch Stock Lists for Wednesday, February 18 |
| Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report.
It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation. 
Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.
These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks
will do very well during bear markets or market corrections
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts today - 6
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull's Strategy - Only a few breakout plays today. Bulls be very conservative as stock market continues to act weak and is vulnerable to more on the downside.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Unfavorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
| TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - PEGA - AVERAGE |
PEGA, based in Cambridge, Ma., develops customer service management software. Annual revenues: $200 million. PEGA's stock breaks out today from a sevem-month, double-bottom or "W" base. The move carries the stock to an 8-year high. It is one of the few stocks to make a multi-year high the past few months. The move to a new high is very bullish and could well bring in more buying.
PEGA will report earnings for 2008 on March 5. They should be strong.
So far today, PEGA is trading a heavy 374,507 shares, triple its normal daily volume of 131,000 shares. The strong volume on the breakout is very bullish.
TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 50,000 shares crossing on a nice up tick to $15.25 from the prior trade at $15.21. The tape action shows strong institutional buying interest.
The company's software is designed to integrate, automate, standardize, and manage such activities as account set-up, record retrieval, correspondence, disputes, investigations, and adjustments.
PEGA provides implementation, consulting, training, and technical support services to facilitate the use of its software. Clients include banks, mutual funds, and credit-card organizations.
Net for the upcoming fourth quarter should soar 100% to 8 cents a share from 4 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 10 cents a share. Net for the year 2008 should come in at 31 cents a share, a 70% jump over the 18 cents a share in 2007.
TTD's performance chart shows PEGA's stock has appreciated 55% the past 12 months. That easily tops the 40% drop in the S&P 500 during the same time. So, PEGA is a leader.
TTD's long-term chart shows PEGA at a 7-year high. The stock has been trending higher nicely. It remains in a log-term up trend.
TTD's daily chart shows the formation of the "W" base. The stock peaked in July, fell and hit a bottom in October, had a bounce, made another bottom in November. It then rallied back to its prior peak.
Today, the stock just edges out of the base's handle section.
The stock's technicals are good. The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) has been solidly bullish for several weeks. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) lags a bit.
Looking ahead to 2009, analysts predict a 22% gain in net to 37 cents a share from an anticipated 31 cents a share this year. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 40 based on this year's net. That is high. So, one needs to watch the stock closely.
Several medical firms like Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Montana use the company's systems.
For the first quarter of 2009, the Street looks for a 13% rise in net to 9 cents a share from 8 cents the year before.
The company put in a stock buyback plan in December.
Strategy Opinion: PEGA is a strong acting stock poised to come in with a strong increase in net. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 19.50 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 13.40. TTD rates PEGA a good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated DFA US Micro Cap Fund with a 0.95% holding. It has held its position steady. PEGA has 36 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 2.2 million shares.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bullish. Insiders have been modest buyers in recent months. Juse one analyst follows the stock and is neutral.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Profile Rating Pegasystems Inc. - (PEGA) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume Expansion | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 12 | 0 | 2 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.
Charts of Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Potential Breakout Stock - TSYS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Potential Breakout Stock -CPLA - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Potential Breakout Stock - MTXX - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Potential Breakout Stock - SNCR - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 20 - the max
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.
Bear Side - Large number of breakdown stocks today. Stock market remains extremely vulnerable to more on the downside.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
PII, based in Medina, Min., make motorized products for recreational and utility use such as snowmobiles. Annual revenues: $2 billion. PII falls sharply today undercutting key technical support. PII's earnings are expected to fall sharply this year. TTD sees good chances for more on the downside. So far today, PII is trading 540,404 shares. Its average daily volume is 742,000 shares. 
TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 25,000 shares crossing the tape at $18.25. The trade came within a sequence started by a down tick from $18.26. TTD sees the tape action indicating institutional distribution.
PII makes all-terrain vehicles, snowmobiles, Victory motorcycles, and related parts and accessories.
The firm sells through a network of 1,600 independent dealers in North America, and six subsidiaries and 43 distributors internationally, primarily in Canada and Europe.
This year, analysts predict a 25% drop in earnings to $2.64 a share from $3.50 a year ago.
The company noted in its 4th quarter report that demand for its product weakened due to the slowdown in the economy. For the upcoming first quarter, analysts predict a 63% slump in earnings to 20 cents a share from 55 cents a year ago. The weak earnings pattern will continue into the second quarter. That is when analysts look for a 26% drop in net to 53 cents a share f rom 72 cents a year ago.
TTD's daily chart show PII's stock in a clear down trend from 50 to 20. Today, it undercuts its support. The stock's TTD momentum indicator slips into the bearish area. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is vey bearish.
TTD is targeting PII for a decline to 14.50 within the next few months or sooner.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
