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Aggressive Investor Bullish- Go To TTD Quick Trade Setups (win rate 70%) - Thursday, February 18 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list small but some interesting plays. Bulls can be venturesome, but continue to watch all stops. The stock market continues to rally across a potential trading range.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PCLN - ABOVE AVERAGE |
PCLN, based in Norwalk, C., is a global online travel service company.Annual revenues: $2.2 billion. PCLN's stock gaps higher today after the company reports better than expected earnings for the fouth quarter. The move carries the stock out of an 8-week base. The breakout come from deep in the base. However, the strong profit surprise could well propel the stock even higher in coming sessions. So far today PCLN is trading 3.9 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 956,000 shares. 
TTD highlighted PCLN as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Thursday.
PCLN's 5-minute chart shows the stock surging higher in the morning. It then backed off after crossing the breakpoint line.
A second thrust higher carried PCLN well above the breakpoint line. It then held above it for the rest of the session.
TTD's clip of the tape shows PCLN's recent big blocks.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $207.78 to a peak of $230.82. The tape action indicates good institutional buying interest.
PCLN offers customers a range of travel services, including hotel rooms, car rentals, airline tickets, vacation packages, cruises and destination services.
It offers hotel room reservations in some 75 countries.
In the U.S., the company offers customers the ability to purchase travel via Name Your Own Price service, which allows the customers to make offers for travel services at discounted prices. The Company is also engaged in offering financial services through Priceline Mortgage Company LLC.
PCLN's 12-month performance shows the stock appreciating 250% versus a 35% gain for the S&P 500 index. The stock is a leader.
PCLN's long-term chart shows the stock with a sensational run up from 18 back in 2005 to a peak of 234. The stock has bounced back strongly from the bear market downdraft in 2008.
PCLN's daily chart shows the stock with a recent strong run up form 140 to 230. The stock then went into a consolidation. The breakout today looks premature in a technical way. However, the earnings were strong and "lit a fire on the stock."
There is a chance PCLN could pause to catch its breadth.
The company came in with fourth quarter earnings of $1.77 a share, up from 84 cents a year ago. The $1.77 topped the consensus estimate on the Street of $1.50 a share. The market responded to the bullish news bullishly.
Technically, the stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has pushed to a new peak. That confirms the strong buying in the stock.
Another bullish kicker for the stock was that PCLN forecast net for the first quarter at $1.54 to $1.64 a share. That was well above the $1.26 a share forecast by the Street. A year ago, PCLN earned 86 cents a share for the first quarter.
Analysts said the better earnings for PCLN indicated that the travel industry was bouncing back from the recession.
This year, analysts have been forecasting 2010 net for PCLN will jump 23% to $9.68 a share from $7.87 a year ago. However, with the boost in first quarter net TTD sees 2010 estimates being bumped up to perhaps $10 a share. That would give the stock a price-earnings ratio of 23, which is reasonable.
Strategy Opinion: PCLN fits the model of a big upside earnings surprise. The stock is extedned near-term, though, so TTD suggests a scale-in strategy. TTD is targeting PCLN for a move to 280 in coming months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 210 giving it room. TTD rates PCLN a very good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is Fidelity Contrafund, 5-star rated, with a 2% stake. It was a recent buyer of 30,000 shares. A large key buyer was 3-star rated Calamos Growth Fund which purchased 410,000 shares recently. PCLN has 44 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were light buyers of the stock recently. They turned around and sold. Currently, 18 analysts follow the stock, 12 have a buy, up from 11 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Priceline.com Inc. - (PCLN) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CELG - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OFIX - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GWW - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CTXS - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Only a few short plays today as market stages rally. Bears be patient and selective.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
ARB, based in New York, is a media and marketing information services firm. Annual revenues: $377 million. ARB's stock falls sharply today in heavy volume. The drop was triggered by a forecast of 2010 eanrings below Street estimates. So far today, ARB is trading 1 million shares, five times its normal daily volume of 189,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
ARB said earnings for this year will be $1.50 to $1.75 a share. The consensus estimate on the Street was at $1.83 a share. The lowest estimate was at $1.74 a share. So, the news was a big disappointment.
Arbitron makes the Portable People Meter (PPM), a cellphone-sized device that electronically tracks exposure to radio, broadcast television and cable media.
The company has lost customers to competitors. Also, a difficult advertising environment in the media industry has hurt renewals and hampered the signing of new businesses.
The stock plunged at the opening. It hit a low of 22.27. It then lifted slightly and trended sideways the rest of the day.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $25.37 to as low as $22.55. The tape indicated clear institutional selling pressure in the morning. It eased a bit later in the day.
ARB serves the radio, cable television and advertising markets.
The company provides radio audience estimates and related services in the United States to radio stations, advertising agencies, and advertisers.
It also provides software applications that allow its customers to access its databases and enable its customers to more effectively analyze and understand that information for sales, management, and programming purposes.
ARB's chart shows the stock in a good up trend and then pulling back. Today's breakdown comes with heavy volume which is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has been weak lately and was a harbinger of today's drop.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ARB for a decline to $17.25 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 24.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
