By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco email@example.com.For service, email Beverly Owen firstname.lastname@example.org. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 11
Overall Quality of Breakouts - ABOVE AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list large with some good looking plays. Stock market holds overall up trend. Dow still basing, Nasdaq has broken out to the upside.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CAVM - ABOVE AVERAGE
CAVM, based in San Jose, Ca., makes semiconductor processors for networks. Annual revenues: $353 million. CAVM's stock breaks out today from an nine-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. It is part of the strong acting semiconductor sector. So far today, CAVM is trading a heavy 1.7 million shares, double its average daily volume of 871,000 shares.
TTD highlighted CAVM as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
CAVM's stock moved higher in the morning clearing its breakpoint line. (See 10-minute chart).
The stock hit a peak of 67.55 around midday.
The stock then trended sideways into the afternoon.
CAVM's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks advancing from $62.48 in the prior session to as high as $67.17 on Wednesday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 19,400 shares crossed the tape at $64.69.
That was up from the prior block trade at $62.86 on 29,841 shares.
CAVM makes semiconductor processors for intelligent and secure networks.
The company's products enable processing for networking, communications, storage, wireless, security, video and connected home and office applications.
CAVM also makes items used in networking equipment, including routers, switches, content-aware switches, UTM and other security appliances.
The company offers semiconductors that provide single or multiple cores of processors, along with intelligent Layer 4 through 7 processing for enterprise network, data center, broadband and consumer, and access and service provider markets.
CAVM's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 70% versus and 17% gain for the S&P 500 index. There was some insider buying in February. (see green section on bar on chart).
CAVM's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2007 and trading at $16.50. The stock advanced to $35.60 that year. However, the bear market set in and CAVM tumbled down to $7.14 in early 2009.
Afterwards it participated well in the bull market soaring back to 48 by 2011. It then fell back and went into a long-term consolidation. It has since emerged and has now hit a new all-time high of 67.55. That could attract more buying Thursday.
CAVM's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 40 back in January to around 63 by December.
The stock then put down a well-formed flat base.
The breakout today is solid coming with a widening of the daily spread (range from high to low) and expansion in volume.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) broke out to the upside a few weeks ago. That shows good underlying buying prior to Wednesday's breakout of the price.
This year, analysts are forecasting CAVM will post a 111% surge in profits to $1.12 a share from 53 cents a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 60. That is high but okay given the strong earnings growth projected for this year and next.
Looking out to 2016, the Street projects a 66% gain in net to $1.85 a share from the anticipated $1.12 this year.
Net for the upcoming first quarter should surge 72% to 21 cents a share from 12 cents a year before. The highest estimate on the Street is at 24 cents a share.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, analysts predict a 43% leap in net to 23 cents a share from 16 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CAVM for a move to 78 off this breakout.
A protective stop can be placed near 62, which is tight.
TTD sees CAVM as a good intermediate-term play as long as earnings remain on course and meet Street expectations.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is the 5-star rated Fidelity Growth Company Fund with a 5.7% stake. It has held its position steady.
Also, the 3-star rated Franklin Small Cap Growth A Fund was a buyer of 130,200 shares. It has a 1.1% stake.
CAVM has 54 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 99% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Insiders were recent sellers around $59 to $62. They were buyers using stock options around $36.
Currently, 23 analysts follow the stock, 16 have a buy, the same as three months ago. CAVM has a book value of $6.08.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Cavium Inc. - (CAVM)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SONC - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - JACK - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HAIN - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - KAR - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of shorts, but some interesting plays. Stock market continues to hold up trend. Bears remain conservative.
DORM, based in Colmar, Pa., sells auto replacement parts. Annual revenues: $747 million. DORM's stock falls sharply today in heavy trading. The decline was triggered by a decline in DORM's earnings for the fourth quarter. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, DORM is trading a heavy 1.3 million shares, eight times its average daily volume.
TTD highlighted DORM as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
DORM reported fourth quarter net declined to 52 cents a share from 56 cents a year ago. The Street was expecting net of 59 cents a share.
DORM's stock tumbled in the morning quickly hitting an intraday low of 43.65.
The stock then rallied to cut into some of its loss and then trended sideways the rest of the day.
DORM's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $47.50 in the prior session to as low as $44.29.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 8,441 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $45.
That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $47.50 on 9,142 shares (duplicated).
DORM supplies auto replacement parts, auto hardware, brake products, and household hardware to the automotive aftermarket and mass merchandise markets.
The company offers some 150,000 products comprising original equipment dealer parts, which include intake manifolds, exhaust manifolds, oil cooler lines, window regulators, harmonic balancers, and radiator fan assemblies; and replacement parts, such as window handles, switches, door hardware and interior trim parts.
This year, analysts have been forecasting a 13% rise in DORM's earnings. However, net for the upcoming first quarter is expected to rise just 4%.
DORM's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower with big volume. The move undercuts key technical support. DORM's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is now bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DORM for a decline to 39 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 47.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DORM - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)