Go To TTD's Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch Stock Lists for Tuesday, February 19
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Go To TTD's Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch Stock Lists for Tuesday, February 19 |
| Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks"
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report.
It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under 
Significant Accumulation.
Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.
These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks
will do very well during bear markets or market corrections
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Only a few breakouts today with the leaders in the top performing fertilizer group dominating the list.
Long-Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market Status (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
CF, based in Long Grove, Il., produces nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers for use in agriculture. Annual revenues: $2.3 billion. CF, a leader in the strong fertilizer sector, breaks out today and hits a new high - one of the few stock to do that. TTD highlighted CF as a stock to accumulate recently. So far today, CF is trading 4.1 million shares. Its average daily volume is 3.2 million shares.
The stock got off to a strong start in the morning. TTD's clip of the tape shows one of the largest trades for the day. It is a big block of 27,400 shares that crossed on a nice up tick to $121.99 from the prior trade at $121.54. The action signaled aggressive institutional buying.
CF Industries CF's customers are primarily farmer cooperatives and independent
fertilizer dealers in the midwestern Corn Belt.
CF was operated as a farmer supply cooperative through 2002. The firm's initial public offering was in 2005. Since that time the stock has performed sensationally.
Several other issues in the fertilizer group are breaking out today. They include: Potash Corp. (POT) and Mosaic (MOS), which TTD featured as stock to accumulate on Friday in anticipation of a breakout.
“The weather cooperated perfectly during the fall season, and the combination of good levels of fall fertilizer application and normal customer inventory stocking for the spring season helped us ship nearly 2.5 million tons of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer during the fourth quarter, almost 170,000 tons more than in the year-earlier quarter,” Wilson added.
Pricing for nitrogen and phosphate products reflected these favorable market conditions, as average selling prices improved substantially both from year-earlier levels and from those in 2007’s excellent third quarter.
TTD's daily chart shows the "gap breakout" in CF today. A gap breakout is often very bullish. TTD sees it as good that volume expanded but not too much. If it had been extremely heavy it could have been an exhaustion type move.
The flat base showed on sharp shakeout to the downside. That pattern showed up in other fertilizer stocks indicating that institutions are playing the group.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is slightly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of the chart) is in a solid up trend showing that the stock is not under any suspicious distribution.
This year, analysts expect CF's earnings to jump 50% to $9.56 a share from $6.39 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 13.
TTD sees that as "dirt cheap" when compared with an earnings growth rate of 50% this yea and a projected 20% the next year.
Going out to 2009, analysts predict net to be up 20% to $11.45 a share from $9.56 a year ago.
Net for the upcoming first quarter should soar 226% to $1.99 a share from 61 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at $2.44 a share. TTD sees good chances for an upside surprise. The past two quarters, CF surpassed the consensus estimate by 48 cents a share and 45 cents a share.
Strategy Opinion: CF is one of the best breakout stocks for the day. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 147. A protective stop can be placed near 120. The stock has the potential to do extremely well and could be aided by a stock split. TTD rates CF a very good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Rainier Small/Mid Cap Equity Fund with a 1.4% stake. It was a recent buyer of 523,000 shares. Also, 4-star rated Hartford Midcap Fund recently added 160,000 shares.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been active buying with options, but then turning around and selling. Seven analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, one is neutral. There were only 3 with a buy three months ago.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating CF Industries Inc. (CF) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume Expansion | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.
(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Breakout Stocks
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 6
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today as market rallies modestly. Bears continue to be venturesome focusing on damaged companies.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
GIVN, based in Israel, makes products for diagnosing gastrointestinal disorders. Annual revenues: $95 million. GIVN's stock falls today after the company failed to get approval for a products use in the U.S. So far today GIVN is down about 2 points. Volume is running at 358,505 shares, almost triple its normal daily volume of 126,000 shares. TTD sees more to go on the downside.
GIVN's
main product is the small bowel capsule endoscope system, which consists of a
disposable miniaturized video camera enclosed in a capsule that patients
swallow, a data recorder that receives images transmitted wirelessly, and a
workstation where the digital images can be viewed.
The company is player in the capsule endoscopy industry.
Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) sent the company a not substantially equivalent (NSE) letter regarding its 510(k) application to market PillCam® COLON in the United States.
The company said while it is disappointed by the FDA's decision it is evaluating options to bring PillCam COLON to the U.S. market as quickly as possible.
GIVN said it recently launched PillCam COLON in Europe and in other countries. It also said it is accelerating development of a next generation colon capsule.
The Company does not expect the FDA decision to have a material impact on 2008 revenues as PillCam COLON capsule sales in the U.S. were not projected to be significant this year.GIVN's stock has tumbled from 30 to 13 in recent months. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is very bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of the chart is in a down trend indicating clear heavy selling pressure. TTD is targeting GIVN for a decline to 10 within the next few months.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
