Go To TTD's Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch Stock Lists for Thursday, February 19
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Go To TTD's Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch Stock Lists for Thursday, February 19 |
| Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report.
It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation. 
Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.
These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks
will do very well during bear markets or market corrections
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull's Strategy - Just a few breakout plays today with auto part stocks dominating the list. Bulls be very conservative as stock market continues to act weak and is vulnerable to more on the downside.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Unfavorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
| TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - ORLY - BELOW AVERAGE |
ORLY, based in Springfield, Mo., is one of the largest specialty retailers of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the U.S. Annual revenues: $3.1 billion. ORLY's stock jumps sharply today after the company reported better than expected earnings. The stock pushes out from a nine-week base. It is now within range to overcome its all-time high at 38.84. The stock is trading a hefty 9.9 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 2.3 million shares. 
TTD highlighted ORLY as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web.
TTD's clip of the tape highlights the big block trades today. One can see the price rising from $31 to $32.50. That shows the stock continued to move higher even though it jumped sharply at the opening.
Automotive parts stocks were strong today.
ORLY operates 3,277 stores in 28 states. It serves both do-it-yourself customers and professional installers.
ORLY reported fourth quarter net of 32 cents a share, down from 35 cents a year ago. However, it was better than the 30 cents a share expected by the Street. However, excluding special acquisition charges, net was 37 cents a share. Sales for the fourth quarter increase 84% to $1.1 billion aided by an acquisition.
ORLY's stock has been doing well. TTD's performance chart shows ORLY appreciating 18% the past 12 months. That compares with a 40% drop in the S&P 500 index. 
TTD's long-term chart of ORLY shows the stock with a powerful advance from 11 in 2003 to a peak near 38 in 2007. Technically, the stock has been in an intermediate-term consolidation. However, near term it is on the move again. TTD's daily chart shows a gap breakout from a 10-week flat base.
Obviously, ORLY has overhead resistance in the 35 to 38 area. So, the stock is not a leader breaking out to a new high.
However, the stock's technicals are very good. The TTD momentum indicator is bullish (see top of chart).
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has broken out to a new peak.
Auto parts stocks could benefit from the slowdown in the economy due to a contraction in new car sales. People may keep their cars and fix them up. Thus, they will need auto parts.
This year, analysts forecast a 22% increase in net to $1.81 a share from $1.48 a share in 2008. The company has potential to benefit from its acquisition of Checker Stores.
Strategy Opinion: ORLY is a powerful breakout today. However, earnings growth does not look that robust near-term. The Street just sees flat first quarter net. Profits should pick up later in the year. TTD suggests caution and just a scale-in strategy. We are targeting the stock for a move to 40. A key will be for the stock to follow through. Our caution is due to the weakness in the general stock market. A protective stop can be placed near 30. TTD rates ORLY a below average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated American Funds AMCAP with a big 5.4% stake. It was a recent buyer of 459,000 share. ORLY has 134 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 53.6 million shares.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers recently but turned around and sold. Currently, 14 analysts follow the stock, 7 have a buy, down from 9 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Profile Rating O'Reilly Automotive Inc. - (ORLY) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume Expansion | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 11 | 0 | 3 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.
Charts of Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - AAP - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock -ICUI - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 10
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.
Bear Side - Good number of breakdown stocks. Bears be venturesome as the stock market is vulnerable to more on the downside. TTD's short from Wednesday was Polaris Industries Inc. (PII) - 18, off 1.21. Today it is down 0.18 to 17.86. It is working well for bears so far.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
VDSI, based in Oakbrook Terrace, Il., designs and develops security products and services that manage and secure access to computer systems. Annual revenues: $135 million. VDSI's stock falls sharply undercutting key support today. The company reported lower earnings for the fourth quarter. So far today, the stock is trading 852,581 shares, triple its normal daily volume of 272,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
TTD highlighted VDSI as a short at our midsession show on the Web.
The stock fell sharply at the opening on the weak earnings. It trended sideways around 5.50 for most of the day. It then weakened in the late afternoon. The stock has a beta of 1.85. That means it is about twice as volatile as the stock market.
TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 8,600 shares crossing on a down tick to $5.11 from the prior trade at $5.13.
VDSI's clients are primarily corporate and government customers. It also helps secure financial transactions made over private enterprise and public networks, including the Internet.
The company reported earnings for the fourth quarter declined to 7 cents a share from 9 cents a year ago. The Street was expecting net of 10 cents a share. Revenues fell 7% for the quarter. The company cited the slowing economy. It declined to make any forecast.
This year, analysts predict flat net at 66 cents a share. The first quarter earnings should be down 12%.
TTD's daily chart shows VDSI's stock in a down trend from 14 seven months ago. Today, the stock undercuts key support near 6.50. The Accumulation - Distribution line is rolling over (see bottom of chart). The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish.
TTD is targeting the stock for a decline to 3.80 within the next few months.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
