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Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - February 20, 2009

                                     By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Total Buy Breakouts today - 1

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull's Strategy -  Only one breakout stock today as stock market continues lower.  Bulls be very conservative and patient as the stock market continues lower. A rally opportunity will come.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Unfavorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Today's Feature Breakout Stock

Autozone Inc. (AZO) - 145, up 2.42 - Breakpoint 143.50

Hits New High, TTD Targets 175

                TTD's Quality Rating of Breakout Stock - AZO -  BELOW AVERAGE

  AZO, based in Memphis, Ten., is the largest specialty retailer of automotive parts and accessories to do-it-yourself individuals and professional installers. Annual revenues: $6.5 billion. AZO breaks out today from a six-month, double-bottom base and hits a new high. The push to a new high could well attract more buying. However, AZO's earnings outlook is not that robust. So far today, the stock is trading 2.8 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 1.3 million shares.

  TTD highlighted AZO as a breakout at our midsessoin show on the Web Friday.

  AZO is part of the surprisingly strong auto parts sector. Thursday, TTD featured O'Reilly Automotive as a breakout (ORLY). Auto parts stocks may be strong to prospects for strong product demand as more people may keep their car and not buy a new one.

  AZO bucked the stock market's down trend. The stock slipped a bit in the morning, but then drove higher. It coasted during the mid part of the day. It lifted a bit in the late afternoon.

 AZO has 4,092 stores in the U.S. and 148 in Mexico. The company operates its commercial program out of 2,236 of its stores, offering delivery of parts to local, regional, and national repair garages, dealers, and service stations. The firm also sells ALLDATA automotive diagnostic and repair software.

  TTD's performance chart shows AZO's stock appreciating 28% the past 12 months. That easily outperforms the 42% drop in the S&P 500 index during the same time.

  AZO's long-term chart is impressive. The stock has soared from 28 in 2001 to its peak of 146. It is now breaking out from a long-term basing formation.

  TTD's daily chart shows AZO breaking out from its near-term flat base and longer "W" or double-bottom base. The stock had a breakout 10 sessions ago. However, it did not hold and the stock slipped back. Now it reemerges.

  The stock moved sharply higher on Thursday too.

 AZO's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is strongly bullish. It broke out just before the stock's price. The strong AD line indicates there is good buying taking place in the stock.

  AZO is showing modest earnings growth.

  Net for the upcoming fiscal second quarter ending February 28 should rise 10% to $1.84 a share from $1.67 a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.91 a share.

  The last quarter, AZO topped the consensus estimate by 4 cents a share, or by 2%. TTD sees chances for a modest upside surprise.

 Net for the fiscal year ending August 30 should increase 8% to $10.87 from $10.04 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  13 which is reasonable considering the earnings growth rate. Looking out to fiscal 2010. the Street is forecasting a 10% gain in net to $11.96 a share.

  Strategy Opinion: AZO is the lone breakout stock today. The high price of the issue gives the look of a possible stock split. That would be bullish. TTD suggests scaling into the stock due to the bearish general stock market. AZO's earnings growth is modest, but could surprise. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 175. We see AZO as more of a trading play and would look to take profits. A protective stop can be placed near 138 and should be honored.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. A large holder is 4-star rated Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund with a 1.7% stake. It has held its position steady. A key buyer was 4-star rated Brandywine Blue Fund which picked up 483,000 shares. AZO has 57 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 12 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were light buyers of the stock in recent months. Currently, 18 analysts follow the stock, 7 have a buy, down from 8 three months ago.

                     Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.


TTD's Profile Rating

Autozone Inc. - (AZO)

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly     YES
Earnings-Long Term     YES
Earnings Outlook     YES
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success     YES
Fund Sponsorship YES    
Total Score 10 0 4

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.

Charts of Breakout Stocks  


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 8

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.

Bear Side -  Modest number of breakdown stocks today. Stock market in solid down trend now. Bears be aggressive looking for shorts.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Nordson Corp. (NDSN) - 27.28, off 2.27

Profits to Tumble Fall 50 in Fiscal 2009, TTD Sees Slide to 22.50

NDSN, based in Westlake, Ohio, makes automated equipment used to apply adhesives, sealants, and coatings during manufacturing processes. Annual revenues: $1.1 billion. NDSN's stock falls sharply today after the company reported a big drop in net for the fiscal first quarter ended January 30. With earnings growth expected to slow the rest of the fiscal year, TTD sees good chances for more on the downside for bears.

  NDSN is trading 352,420 shares so far today. Its average daily volume is 227,000 shares.

  The stock gapped lower at the opening. After a modest bounce, it continued to work lower. It is lifting a bit in the final hours of trading today.

  TTD's clip of the tap shows the big block trades the past two sessions. One can see the price of the blocks declining from $29.55 to $27.47. The tape action indicates that heavy institutional selling pressure is taking place.

  NDSN reported net for the fiscal first quarter ended January 31 dropped to 33 cents a share from 62 cents a year ago.

  The company's products include automated adhesive and sealing dispensing systems, electrostatic spray equipment for applying liquid paints, powder paints, and coatings, and advanced gasket-making machinery.

 It also provides related software and application technologies.

 This fiscal year ending October 30, analysts project a 50%  drop in NDSN's net to $1.76 a share from $3.53 in fiscal 2008.

  TTD's daily chart shows NDSN's stock falling from 70 to 20 in recent months. The stock tried to form a bottom after lifting to around 30. However, today, the stock gaps lower on the bearish earnings news. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is very bearish now.

  TTD is targeting NDSN for a drop to 22.50 within the next few months or sooner.   

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)