Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Tuesday, February 19, 2019 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Wednesday - February 20, 2019
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 12
Quality of Breakouts - Average.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Large list of breakouts, but very selective. Bulls be conservative.
Stock market - All major averages remain bullish in all time sectors.
Comment - Stock market is stretched to the upside near-term. Bulls be watchful/
See Latest Earnings Reports - A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Wednesday - OR, CDE, EIG, AMSWA, PI, GRMN and ROG.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - KWR - ABOVE AVERAGE |
KWR, based in Conshohocken, Pa., makes specialty chemicals for industry. Annual revenues: $820 million. KWR's stock moves higher Wednesday and breaks out from its 18-week cup-and-handle base.
The stock is nearing an all-time high.
So far today, KWR is trading 60,300 shares. Its average daily volume is 58,300 shares.
The stock is thinly traded. Insiders hold 2.5% of the stock, while institutions have 93%.
TTD highlighted KWR as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
KWR was recently featured by TTD as a stock to accumulation in anticipation of a breakout.
KWR's stock moved higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint line. (see chart).
The stock reached an intraday high of $213.66 in the afternoon.
Tape Action
KWR's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $208.51 in the prior session to as high as $212.72 in the afternoon.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 2,702 shares crossed the tape at $209.95.
That was up from the prior block at $207.96 on 316 shares.
Near the close a massive block of KWR crossed at 212.72 on 17,154 shares (duplicated).
That was up from the prior block at $212.36 on 300 shares.
Business
KWR makes special chemicals for heavy industrial and manufacturing applications worldwide.
Its products include rolling lubricants used by manufacturers of steel and aluminum.
The company also produces metal finishing compounds to prepare metal surfaces for special treatments, such as galvanizing and tin plating.
Charts
KWR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 45% versus a 4% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $72 to $134 a share. They were sellers at $167 to $210 a share.
KWR's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $35.80 back in 2012 to a peak near $93 by late 2014.
The stock then consolidated. It broke out in 2016 and then climbed to an all-time high of 217.15 late last year.
KWR's daily chart shows the stock peaking near $209 in November.
It pulled back and then rallied to form a cup-and-handle base.
The breakout clears upside resistance.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is very bullish.
Earnings Outlook
Net for 2018 is expected to climb 20% to $6 a share from the $5.01 the year before.
The company tends to report in late February.
Profits for the fourth quarter are projected to be up 15% to $1.45 a share from the $1.27 the year before.
Looking out to 2019, the Street predicts a 20% increase in net to $7.20 a share from the anticipated $6 for 2018.
Net for the first quarter of 2019 is expected to be off 4% to $1.33 a share from the $1.38 the year before.
However, one analysts has projected net as high as $1.52 a share for the quarter. Three analysts follow the stock.
The company topped the consensus quarterly Street estimate the past four quarters by 6 cents a share, 14 cents, 7 cents and one cent.
KWR surpassed the consensus earnings estimate 16 times after the past 20 reports - it missed only once.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting KWR for a move to $235.
A protective stop can be placed near $205.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish - KWR tends to scored some good gains off some of its recent breakouts.
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish - KWR rose 9 times after the past 12 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Bullish - KWR averaged a gain of 0.3% in February and a gain of 4.61% in March the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
14% |
7/31/2018 |
177.54 |
202.80 |
10/1/2018 |
6% |
11/1/2017 |
155.55 |
164.78 |
11/30/2017 |
25% |
11/9/2016 |
108.28 |
135.85 |
12/8/2016 |
13% |
11/4/2014 |
81.66 |
92.67 |
12/26/2014 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Quaker Chemical Corp. (KWR) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BPOP - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -LZB - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - COO - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HSY - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of shorts but some good plays for aggressive bears.
USNA, based in Salt Lake City, produces nutritional bars and personal care products. Annual revenues: $1.2 billion. USNA's stock falls sharply Wednesday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.
The company said it was conducting an internal investigation of its China operations.
It gave no details.
USNA's stock fell in the morning and undercut key technical support.
The stock continued lower through the day. It closed near its low for the session. That is bearish.
Tape Action
USNA's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $105.74 in the prior session to as low as $99.39 in the afternoon.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 1,400 shares crossed the tape at $100.12.
That was down from the prior block at $102.66 on 1,000 shares.
Then near the close a block of 18,158 shares (duplicated) crossed at $99.47.
That was down from the prior block at $100.32 on 1,200 shares.
The tape action was very bearish.
Business
USNA sells its products in the Americas and Europe, and Asia Pacific, which includes three sub-regions: Southeast Asia Pacific, Greater China and North Asia.
Its product lines include USANA Nutritionals Essentials and other foods.
The company's USANA Nutritionals Essentials product line includes vitamin and mineral supplements .
Earnings:
This year, analysts have been forecasting a 5% increase in net to $5.40 a share from the $5.16 the year before.
Charts:
USNA's daily chart shows the stock trending lower from a peak at $137 in July.
The breakdown Wednesday is very bearish coming with a widening of the daily spread.
USNA's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 30% versus a 4% gain for the stock market. However, the stock has been losing ground the past six months.
Insiders have been buyers using stock options at $70. They were recent sellers at $105 to $117.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting USNA for a decline to $86 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $104.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish. - USNA rose 2 times after the past 6 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bullish. USNA averaged a decline of 5.7% in February but rose an average of 7.6% in March the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - USNA - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
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TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)