Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Thursday, February 21

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance - Thursday, February 21, 2013

Ticker Tape Digest

Thursday - February 21, 2013

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

  Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 1

Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Bull side - Breakout list small as stock market falls sharply. Bulls be selective. Stock market now in a consolidation pattern. Bulls be selective.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Favorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish 

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action -

(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Packaging Corp. (PKG) - 40.87, up 1.63 - Breakpoint 40.22

Net to Jump 31% This Year, TTD Targets 50

  PKG, based in Lake Forest, Il., produces containerboard. Annual revenues: $2.8 billion. PKG's stock breaks out today from a six-week flat base. The move represents a reemerging from the base. So far today, PKG is trading 2.6 million shares, three times its normal daily volume 731,000 shares.

  PKG's stock rose sharply in the morning and peaked around noon at 41.33. The stock then trended sideways holding the bulk of its gain. (see 10 minute chart)

  The stock showed good intraday buying in the morning and around noon. Late in the day there was some selling pressure. Nevertheless PKG's move was impressive given the stock market condition.

  PKG was the only breakout TTD spotted Thursday.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows PKG's block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $39 early in the session to a peak of $41.07 late in the day.

  The key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 25,000 shares crossed at $40.47. That was up from the prior block trade at $39.02.   

  PKG is one of the largest producers of containerboard in the U.S.

 The company is also a large maker of corrugated packaging products.

 The company produces corrugated containers as well as the containerboard used to manufacture corrugated containers.

 Corrugated containers are the most commonly used type of paper packaging. Corrugated containers, referred to as cardboard boxes, are made by combining multiple layers of heavyweight paper known as containerboard and fabricating them into finished boxes.

  PKG's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 40% versus an 11% gain for the S&P 500 index.

  PKG's long-term chart shows the stock coming public back in 2000. The stock worked higher over the years reaching a peak of 31.88 in late 2007. The stock then tumbled during the bear market falling to 10. It has since made a sensational recovery with a four-fold move and a push to a new high on Thursday.   

  PKG's daily chart shows the stock trending higher an peaking in January around 40. The stock then put down a flat base.

  Today's breakout is impressive coming with a widening of the daily spread and expansion in volume - all this during a big down day in the stock market.

  PKG's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend and broke out before the price of the stock. That was a good lead indicator.

  PKG's earnings this year should climb 31% to $2.69 a share from $2.06 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  15.  TTD sees the stock attractive for value investors.

  Going out to 2014, profits are projected to rise 14% to $3.06 a share from the anticipated $2.69 this year.

  Net for the first half of 2013 should be strong.

  Analysts expect net for the first quarter to climb 33% to 56 cents a share from 42 cents a year ago.

  For the second quarter, they look for net to rise 38% to 68 cents a share from 49 cents the year before.  The company tends to come in close to the Street estimate.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PKG for a move to 50 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 37.50.

  TTD rates PKG a good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Value Fund with a 3% stake. It was a recent seller of 33,000 shares. The largest fund buyer recently was 3-star rated  Blackrock Large Cap Core Retirement Fund which purchased 256,425 shares.

  PKG has 96.3 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 89% of the stock.

  Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders have been buyers using stock options from $18 to $20. They sold most recently from $35.44 to $39.55. Currently, 11 analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, the same as three months ago.

Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

None

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 20 - The Max

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Large number of breakdown stocks today as stock market rolls over near-term. Bears be selective.  

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Polypore International Inc. (PPO) - 37.60, down 2.35

Earnings Disappoint, TTD Sees Side to 32.50

  PPO, based in Charlotte, N.C., makes special polymer products used for filtration. PPO's stock falls sharply today after the company reported disappointing earnings for the fourth quarter. So far today, PPO is trading a heavy 3 million shares, six times its normal daily volume of 541,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

  PPO reported earnings for the fourth quarter dropped to 37 cents a share from 56 cents a year ago.

  The Street was looking for higher earnings.

  PPO's stock gapped lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 35.10. In the afternoon, the stock cut some of its deficit, but looks to finish sharply lower.

  The tape action shows the recent big block trades.

  One can see the block trade prices falling from $43.56 to as low as $36.07 during the past few sessions.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 50,000 shares crossed the tape at $36.25. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $39.95.

  PPO  produces highly specialized polymer-based membranes used in separation and filtration processes.

  Analysts have been forecasting a 47% increase in earnings this year to $2.09 a share. However, that forecast could come down.

  PPO's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower and through key technical support on expanding volume. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an up trend. That would indicate that the earnings disappointment blindsided investors.

   Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting PPO for a decline to 32.50. A protective stop buy can be placed 39.

TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2013

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)