Ticker Tape Digest

Wednesday - February 21, 2018

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Wednesday - February 21, 2018

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  6

Quality of Breakouts -  Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -  Small list of breakouts. Bulls be conservative.

Stock market  -  Daily Dow and S&P are bearish. Nasdaq just holding. The weekly and monthly market averages are still bullish but in danger of turning bearish. Bulls be conservative.

 Stock market rose sharply Wednesday, but then sold off in the final hour due to some concern about interest rates and the Fed.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Wednesday

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Dominos Pizza Inc. (DPZ) - 230.53, up 9.04 - Breakpoint 222.12

Net tops Street Estimates, TTD Targets 270 

     DPZ, based in Ann Arbor, Mich., operates a pizza  franchise system in 50 countries. Revenues: $2.47 billion. DPZ's stock breaks out Wednesday from a 5-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.

 The DPZ breakout was triggered by favorable quarterly earnings.

 Based on a longer-term basis, the breakout clears a 9-month, double bottom base.

 TTD highlighted DPZ as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.

  DPZ is trading a heavy 3.4 million shares almost triple its average daily volume of 1.2 million shares.

  DPZ came in with net for the fourth quarter of $2.09 a share.

  That topped the consensus estimate on the Street of $1.95 a share.

  The stock pushed higher in the morning to clear its breakpoint line.

  Later in the day it drifted back.

  However, it drifted back a bit. Then late in the day it came on strong despite a selloff in the stock market.

  Tape Action

   DPZ's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $218.61 in the prior session to as high as $232.09 Wednesday.

   A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 650,000 shares crossed the tape at 227.28.

  That was up from  the prior block at $222.15 on 9,030 shares.

   There was some institutional profit taking near the close.

  That was when a block of 153,566 shares crossed the tape at $230.52 (duplicated).

  That was down from the prior block trade at $232.09 on 6,379 shares.

  Business

  DPZ operates stores delivering pizzas. It is primarily a  franchised system..

  The company operates through three segments: Domestic Stores, Supply Chain, and International Franchise.

  It has 13,800 stores in 85 international markets.

  Charts

  DPZ's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 22% versus an 15% gain in the Stock market.

  Insiders at DPZ have been buying the stock at prices form $7 to $14. They were sellers around $134 to $195.

  DPZ's long-term chart shows the stock in a solid long-term up trend holding above its long-term moving average line.

  The stock climbed from $11 a share in 2010 to a peak of 230 Wednesday.

  DPZ's daily chart shows the stock climbing from  $170 back in November  to a peak around $220 by December.

 The stock then put down a short cup-and-handle base.

 The breakout clears the base with a pick up in volume.

  The stock's CCI  momentum  indicators is strongly  bullish.

  Earnings Outlook

  For 2018, analysts are forecasting a robust 49% surge in net to $7.98 a share from the $5.34 the year before.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 28.  TTD sees that as attractive for value-growth investors.

  Looking out to 2019, the Street expects a 17% increase in net to $9.31 a share from the anticipated $7.98 this year.

  Analysts have been lifting their estimates.

  Profits for the upcoming first quarter are projected to leap 40% to $1.77 a share from $1.26 in the prior year.

  The company has topped the consensus estimate the past seven quarters.  

  Going out to the second quarter of 2018, analysts are predicting a 31% gain in net to $1.73 a share from  the $1.32 the year before.

 Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting DPZ for a move to $270 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $220.

  TTT sees chances for a stock split which could boost the stock. TTD rates DPZ a good intermediate-term play.  

Suitability:  Average Bull.

                          TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success -  Bullish.  DPZ has scored modest gains off its recent breakouts.

Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish.  DPZ rose 7 times after the past 11 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Bullish.  DPZ  rose an average of 9.3% in February the past five years. However, it was down an average of 1.6% in March.

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 7

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears:  Neutral.

Bear Side - Some interesting short plays for aggressive bears. Stock market sells off sharply late in the day. Consolidation pattern of recent big run up still in play. Expect more whipsaw action.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Jeld-Wen Holding Inc. (JELD) - 34.50, down 3.14

Earnings Disappoint, TTD Sees Decline to 28

  JELD, based in Charlotte, N.C. makes doors and windows. Annual revenues: $3.7 billion. JELD's stock falls sharply Wednesday and undercuts key technical support. The drop was triggered by disappointing earnings. TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, JELD is trading a heavy 4.8 million shares, six times its average daily volume of 770,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted JELD as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.

  JELD reported net for the fourth quarter of 26 cents a share. That was well below the Street consensus estimate of 42 cents a share.

  JELD's tock fell sharply in the morning undercutting key technical support. It touched an intraday low of $31.86.

  The stock rebounded to around $35 and then trended mostly sideways the rest of the day.

  Tape Action

  JELD's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks tumbling from $36.60 last Friday to as low as $32.12 on Wednesday.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 41,483 shares crossed the tape at $32.12.

  That was down from the prior block trade at $36.60 on 47,700 shares on Friday  of last week.

  The tape action shows the stock reacting very bearishly to the earnings miss.

  Business

 JELD makes interior and exterior doors, wood, vinyl and aluminum windows. They are used in new construction and also repair and remodeling of residential homes, and some  non-residential buildings.

  The firm markets its products under the JELD-WEN brand and a few other names. It operates 110 manufacturing facilities in 20 countries, located primarily in North America, Europe and Australia.

  Earnings:

  JELD's earnings for 2017 of $1. 49 a share. That was below the Street forecast of $1.64 a share.

  The Street has been forecasting net for this year at $2.24 a share. However, that forecast could come down.  

Charts:   

   JELD's daily chart shows the stock peaking near $42 earlier this year. The stock trended down to around $36 looking for support from  its prior breakout at that level back in November.

  However, any support vaporized as the stock gapped lower with big volume.

  JELD's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 15%, about the same as the stock market.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting JELD for a decline to $28 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $36.20.

Suitability: Average Bears.

  TTD's special probability research of  Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish.  JELD rose just one time after the past five earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Bullish.  JELD rose an average of  5.6% in February and 5.2% in March the past several years.

   Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2018

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

 Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)