Ticker Tape Digest

Thursday - February 21,  2019

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Thursday - February 21, 2019

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  10

Quality of Breakouts -  Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -   Bulls have a few select plays. Interesting to see utilities now breaking out.

Stock market  -  Market averages remain bullish in all sectors. Upside momentum slowing. So, there is chances of a pull back or consolidation now.

Comment -  TTD suggests Bulls be conservative and very selective.

See Latest Earnings Reports -  A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Some earnings beats for Thursday - DXCM, IQ, SGMS, ANIK and VC.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks near breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.  They can also be bought soon after a follow through move, sometimes on an intraday pullback. )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Dine Brands Global Inc. (DIN) - 99.49, up 10.98 - Breakpoint 94.77

Net Tops Estimates, TTD Targets 122 

 DIN, based in Glendale, Ca., owns and franchises restaurants such as Applebees and IHOP. It has 3,722 restaurants. Annual revenues: $605 million. DIN breaks out Thursday after reporting better-than-expected earnings.

  So far today, DIN is trading a heavy 1.4 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 286,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted DIN as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.

  DIN also raised its quarterly dividend to 69 cents a share from 63 cents a share. It also replaced its current share repurchase program with a new $200 million program.

  DIN's stock gapped higher in the morning to clear its breakpoint line.

  The stock reached an intraday high of $99.75.

  It then trended sideways the rest of the day and closed near its high for the session. That is bullish.

  Tape Action

  DIN's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $88.31 in the prior session to as high as $99.49 near the close Thursday.

    A key bullish trade came late on Wednesday when a block of 26,973 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $88.51.

  That was up from the prior block at $88.38 on 7,000 shares

  Near the close Thursday a block of 49,559 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $99.49.

  That was up from the prior block at $99.35 on 9,525 shares.

  Business

  DINE, owns and franchises the Applebee's Neighborhood Grill & Bar International House of Pancakes (IHOP).

 Applebee's features burgers, classic entrees and lighter fare, as well as cocktails, beers and desserts.

 IHOP servces breakfast meals and also lunch and dinner.

  DIN said net fell to $1.47 a share from  $3.82 a share a year ago, which included a benefit related to tax reform.

  Excluding non-recurring items, adjusted earnings per share rose to $1.70 from 48 cents. It said that beat consensus estimates of $1.57.

 Total revenue increased to $214.2 million from $176.7 million. That topped consensus estimates of $197million.

 The company expects 2019 same-store sales growth of 2% to 4% for both Applebee's and IHOP restaurant chains.

  Charts

  DIN's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 42% versus a 4% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $51 to $57 a share.

  They were sellers at $71 to $90 a shares.

  DIN's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $41 back in 2012 to an all-time high of $114.23 by early 2015.

  The stock then took a dive down to $36 by 2017. It has since made a strong come back getting to $99.   

  DIN's daily chart shows the stock gapping higher and breaking out from a cup-and-handle base.

  The handle part of the base is brief and a bit below the breakpoint line.

  The strong volume makes this a blow out type breakout.

  It will be imporant to see a follow through move.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.   

  Earnings Outlook

  The company has made several forecasts for the year. Currently, the Street has been predicting a 34% leape in this year's net to $7.02 a share.

  Just two analysts follow the stock.

  Net for the first quarter is expected to surge 66% to $1.84 a share from the $1.11 the year before.   

Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting DIN for a move to $122. A protective stop can be placed near $93.

Intermediate-Term Rating:  Above Average.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bulls.

                                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish -  DIN scored some good gains off some of its recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.

Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish -  DIN rose 8 times after the past 12 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Slightly Bearish.  -  DIN averaged a decline of 4.4% in March but a gain of 1.8% in April the past several years. 

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

 Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  -  Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today -  6

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Several shorts click as earnings disapoint. Bears be conservative. Stock market bounce rally could be running out of gas.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Concho Resources Inc.  (CXO) - 103.70

Net Disappoints, TTD Sees Drop to 90

  CXO, based in Midland, Tex., produces oil and gas. Annual revenues: $2.6 billion. CXO's stock falls Thursday and undercuts key technical support. The sell off came as CXO disappointed with earnings.   

  TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, CXO is trading a heavy 5.8 million shares, almost triple its average daily volume of 1.9 million shares.

  The stock declined due to missing adjusted earnings and revenues. projections on the Street.

  CXO's stock headed lower in the morning and cut below key support in the morning.

  The stock touched a low in the afternoon at $103.32. It then trended sideways unable to rally.

   Tape Action

  CXO's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $113.77 in the prior session to as low as $103.70.

  A key bearish trade came late on Wednesday when a block of 214,512 shares crossed the tape at 112,45.

  That was down from the prior block at $113.77 on 24,000 shares.

  Near the close on Thursday a block of 158,095 shares (duplicated) crossed at $103.70.

  That was down from the prior block at $103.85 on 12,200 shares.

  So the tape showed heavy selling pressure.

  Business

  CXO produces oil and gas. Its four operating areas include the Northern Delaware Basin, the Southern Delaware Basin, the Midland Basin and the New Mexico Shelf.

 The company's operations were focused in the Permian Basin, which underlies an area of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas.

The Permian Basin is an oil and natural gas producing region in the U.S. with multiple producing horizons and enhanced recovery potential.

 Earnings:

  This year, analysts are forecasting a 10% increase in net to $5.03 a share from $4.59 the year befoe.

  Net for the first quarter should be up 19% to $1.19 a share from the $1 the year before.

  The estimates cover 16 analysts. They are quite dispersed. Some see first quarter net as low as 82 cents a share.

Charts:  

  CXO's chart shows the stock breaking below key support at $110 on heavy volume. The move is a continuation of the down trend from $160 back in October.

  CXO'12-month performance chart shows the stock down 30% versus a 4% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders have been getting stock options. They have not used them recently.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CXO for a decline to 90 within the next few weeks or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $106.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish.  -  CXO rose 5 times after the past 14 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Bullish.  CXO averaged a gain of 3.7% in March and a gain of 6.9% in April the past several years.

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2019

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)