By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns
Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend.
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco email@example.com.For service, email Beverly Owen firstname.lastname@example.org. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list is samll today as stock market trades in tight range. Bulls can be venturesome, but continue to watch all stops. The stock market continues to rally across a potential trading range set up.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CSH - AVERAGE
CSH, based in Fort Worth, Tex., provides pawn loans, short-term cash advances, check cashing services and other specialty financial services to individuals. Annual revenues: $1.1 billion. CSH's stock breaks out from a seven-week flat base today and hits a 52-week high. The stock has rallied strongly from its bear market low of 11. So far today, CSH is trading a light 168,168 shares. Its average dally volume is 272,000 shares.
TTD highlighted CSH as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Monday.
CSH's five minute chart shows the stock breaking out early in the day. It held its breakout and then in the late afternoon continued to work higher.
The light volume is of concern. So, one would like to see CSH pick up more volume to sustain its breakout.
CSH's tape action reveals some big institutional buying. A big block of 105,900 shares, about half of today's volume came on a price of $38. That was up sharply from the prior block trade that crossed at $37.76.
TTD sees the tape action indicating massive institutional accumulation. We see that as bullish.
CSH, besides its loans, also sells merchandise in its pawnshops, primarily personal property that has been forfeited in connection with its pawn lending operations.
The company operates 501 pawnshops in 22 states, 15 pawnshops are franchised.
Most of the Company’s pawnshops operate under the Cash America trade name; 43 pawnshops (located in Arizona, California, Nevada and Washington) operate under the SuperPawn trade name.
In addition, the company is the majority owner of the company operating pawn shops under the name of Prenda Facil, which, as of December 31, 2008, included 112 pawn lending locations in central and southern Mexico.
CSH's stock has appreciated 150% the past 12 months compared with a 50% gain for the S&P 500 index.
CSH's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 9 back in 2002 to a peak of 47 by 2006. The stock practically made the "round trip" back to close to 9 during the recent bear market. However, it has since rallied strongly and is now getting close to testing its all-time high.
CSH's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 26 to 38. The run showed the stock staying above its rising 50-day moving average line. So, that indicator could be very important to watch as the stock progresses.
The current flat base showed two shakeouts to the downside. Both were contained and the stock rallied. The structure of the base is good. However, more volume needs to be generated in coming sessions.
CSH's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) broke out from its basing pattern. That is good technical confirmation that there is good buying going on in the stock and very little distribution.
This year, analysts project CSH will show a 14% gain in net to $3.62 a share from $3.17 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 10. TTD sees that as low making the stock a good value play.
Looking out to 2011, the Street expects a 14% rise in net to $4.11 a share.
For the upcoming first quarter, CSH's net should increase 15% to 91 cents a share from 79 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 93 cents a share. TTD sees chances for a significant upside surprise. In the prior quarter, CSH topped the consensus estimate by 12 cents a share. The strong net was due to good operations at its pawn shops.
Going out to the second quarter, CSH's profit growth should modestly accelerate. The Street sees net jumping 23% to 66 cents a share from 54 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CSH for a move to 46. A protective stop can be placed near 35. It will be important for the stock to show a good follow through the next few session. TTD rates CSH an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Allianz NFJ small cap Value Fund with a 4.9% stake. It has held its position steady. A key buyer recently was 4-star rated Ridgeworth Small Cap Value Equity Fund which picked up 40,600 shares. CSH has 29.3 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers using stock options. They turned around and sold. The latest sells were at $36. Currently, 11 analysts follow the stock, 9 have a buy, up from 8 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Cash America Intl. - (CSH)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LLL - BELOW AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HUN - BELOW AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MANH - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LPX - BELOW AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Just a few breakdown stocks today. Bears remain patient and selective.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
AMSC, based in Devens, Ma., produces products for the energy industry. Annual revenues: $290 million. AMSC's stock falls sharply today on heavy volume. The drop comes with out any news. However, the technical breakdown comes from the well-known head and shoulder topping pattern. So far today, AMSC is trading 1.8 million shares. Its average daily volume is 1.4 million shares.
AMSC's stock moved lower in the morning and drifted to as low as 29.06. In the afternoon, it attempted a rally, but it sputtered out.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades in AMSC. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $32.11 to $29.17. There were two key trades today. The first was a big block of 21,500 shares trading at $30.35. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $31.20.
The second trade was a big block of 25,000 shares that crossed at $30. That was down from the prior block that crossed at $30.35.
The tape action indicates clear institutional selling pressure.
AMSC provides solutions based on two technologies: programmable power electronic converters and high temperature superconductor wires.
The two primary markets it serves are the wind energy market and the power transmission and distribution or power grid market.
AMSC conducts its operations through two business units: AMSC Power Systems, which supplies electrical systems used in wind turbines and which sells power electronic products that regulate wind farm voltage.
AMSC Superconductors makes HTS wire and coils.
This fiscal year ending March 30, analysts forecast the company will show a profit of 38 cents a share compared with a loss of 31 cents a year ago.
AMSC's chart shows the stock breaking below key support at $30.22. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bearish for several weeks. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is very bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AMSC for a decline to 24.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 32 giving it some upside room.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)