By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small as stock market holds up trend and consolidates recent gains. Bulls be selective.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ARUN - AVERAGE
ARUN, based in Sunnyvale, Ca., provides enterprise networking systems. Annual revenues: $542 million. ARUN's stock breaks out today from a six-month, cup-and-handle base. The move carries the stock to a new 52-week high. So far today, ARUN is trading a heavy 20.6 million shares, six times its normal daily volume of 3.1 million shares.
ARUN's strong advance was propelled by its upbeat earnings report.
The stock spiked higher in the morning hitting an intraday peak of 26.78. The stock then pulled back a bit and trended sideways holding the bulk of its gain.
ARUN reported net for the fiscal second quarter ended January 31 of 4 cents a share compared with a loss of 11 cents a year ago.
Excluding special items, earnings were 22 cents a share, up from 16 cents a year ago. The market responded very bullishly to the news. The consensus estimate on the Street was for net of 19 cents a share.
Revenues for the quarter rose 23%.
ARUN's tape action is shown by its recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks surging from $20.90 the day before to a peak of $26.25 Friday morning.
A key bullish trade came near the opening when a block of 230,402 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $24.30.
That was up from the prior block at $20.90.
The tape action showed some profit taking late in the day and then more buying interest near the final bell.
ARUN delivers links for enterprise network users, wherever they work or roam. The firm uses a combination of solutions.
The company has operations throughout the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and Asia Pacific regions.
ARUN's products include ArubaOS operating system, optional value-added software modules, a centralized and vendor neutral mobility management system, high-performance programmable mobility controllers and wired and wireless access points.
They also make wireless intrusion detection tools, spectrum analyzers, and endpoint compliance solutions.
The Company operates in one industry segment selling fixed and modular mobility controllers, wired and wireless access points, and related software and services.
ARUN's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 18% versus a 15% gain for the S&P 500 index. ARUN's stock has advanced after its past three earnings reports.
ARUN's long-term chart shows the stock bottoming out around 2 back in early 2009. Afterwards the stock surged to a peak at 36 by early 2011. It then fell back again, but is now coming on once more. The stock has a beta of 1.9 versus 1.0 for the stock market. So, ARUN can be volatile.
ARUN's daily chart shows the stock trending sideways for about the past four months.
Today's breakout is impressive coming with a gap move to the upside, widening of the daily trading spread (range from high to low) and a big expansion in volume.
ARUN's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
However, the accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has been in a down trend. The news may have surprised many.
Analysts are forecasting a big jump in ARUN's earnings for the fiscal year ending July to 27 cents a share from 4 cents a year ago.
Looking out to fiscal 2014, profits should leap 75% to 48 cents a share from the anticipated 27 cents this fiscal year.
Net for the upcoming fiscal third quarter should be up 8% to 8 cents a share from 7 cents a year ago, according to the Street. The highest estimate is at 9 cents a share. Going out to the fiscal fourth quarter ending in July, profits should come in at 9 cents a share versus a breakeven.
Strategy Opinion: ARUN's breakout is impressive. The stock can get hot at times. TTD is targeting ARUN for a move to 31 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 24. TTD rates ARUN a very speculative intermediate-term play most suitable for aggressive investors.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund with a 2.7% stake. It was a recent seller of 100,000 shares. However, the 3-star rated Vanguard Explorer Fund was a recent buyer of 1 million shares. It has a 2.4% interest.
ARUN has 112 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders were recent buyer using stock options at about $2 a share. They sold around $22. Right now 23 analysts follow the stock, 18 have a buy, up from 14 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Aruba Networks Inc. - (ARUN)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SSTK - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - COR - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CHTR - BELOW AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakout down stocks. Stock market holds up trend. Bears remain conservative and selective.
MMSI, based in South Jordon, Utah, makes products to treat cardiovascular disease. Annual revenues: $383 million. MMSI's stock falls sharply Friday after the company reported disappointing earnings for the fourth quarter. So far today, MMSI is trading a heavy 1.8 million shares, 13 times its average daily volume of 135,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted MMSI as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
MMSI reported neat for the fourth quarter fell to 1 cent a share from 12 cents a year ago. the company did post higher sales for the quarter.
The Street took the news very bearishly.
MMSI's stock gapped lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low of $10.10 in the morning. Later in the day it staged a modest recovery to $11.54.
The stock's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $13.80 a few days ago to as low as $10.77. A key bearish trade came when a block of 30,476 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $11.88. That was down from the prior block at $13.75.
MMSI produces products for the diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular disease.
The company's products are designed to provide physicians and other health care professionals with devices that enable them to perform interventional and diagnostic procedures.
For 2013, analysts have been forecasting a 24% rise in net to 89 cents a share compared with 72 cents a year ago. That forecast could come down.
MMSI's daily chart show the stock gapping lower on big volume. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is extremely bullish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) was rising. That would show that the bearish news was not expected by the market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MMSI for a decline to 8.70 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 12.10
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MMSI - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)