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Aggressive Investor Bullish- Go To TTD Quick Trade Setups (win rate 70%) - Tuesday, February 23 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Only a few breakout stocks today. Bulls be patient a more conservative now as stock market could retrace recent advance. The stock market now appears to be in a trading range which could last awhile.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CBRL - AVERAGE |
CBRL, based in Lebanon, Ten., operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store restaurant. Annual revenues; $2.4 billion. CBRL's stock breaks out from a six-week base today and hits a 52-week high. The move was set off after the company reported stronger than expected earnings for the fiscal second quarter ended January 31. So far today, CBRL is trading a hefty 949,94 shares, four times its normal daily volume of 186,000 shares. 
TTD highlighted CBRL as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web. Tuesday.
CBRL's 5-minute chart shows the stock gapping higher at the opening. The move carried CBRL over its breakpoint.
The stock held above the breakpoint even though the stock market declined sharply during the day.
CBRL's tape action leading up to the breakout showed good institutional accumulation.
One can see the price for the recent block trades climbed from $37.18 to a $42.34.
A key trade came in the morning. It was a big block of 22,192 shares that went off at $41.20 (duplicated). That was up sharply from the prior block trade that went off at $39.99.
CBRL operates 591 full-service restaurants and gift shops in 41 states.
The Company’s stores are intended to appeal to both the traveler and the local customer.
The format consists of a rustic, old country-store design with a separate retail area offering a variety of decorative and functional items featuring rocking chairs, holiday and seasonal gifts and toys, apparel, cookware and foods.
CBRL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 125%. That is a great comeback from its bear market low. It is also better then the 50% gain for the S&P 500 during the same period.
CBRL's long-term chart shows the stock working its way higher from 10 back in 2000 to a peak of 50 in 2007. The bear market pulled the stock back to its starting point at about 10 in 2008. Since then the stock has rallied strongly.
CBRL reported net for the fiscal second quarter climbed to $1.09 a share from 81 cents a year ago. The $1.09 topped the consensus estimate on the Street of 90 cents a share and the highest estimate of 96 cents a share. The company cited lower food costs.
The stock responded very bullishly to the news. TTD has said when a company can top the highest estimate there is a good chance the stock will move higher that day and possibly for the next few weeks as analysts lift year estimates.
CBRL's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 26 to 40 in recent months. The stock then based. Today, it gaps higher on big volume.
Technically, the move looks good. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has now turned up. It is bullish.
Net for the fiscal year ending July 30 is projected by CBRL to be $3.35 to $3.50 a share. That is up from the consensus estimate on the Street of $3.27 a share. A year before, CBRL earned $2.96 a share.
The Street was looking for a 10% gain this fiscal year. Now, CBRL is forecasting as much as an 18% gain.
Looking ahead to fiscal 2011, the Street currently projects a 9% increase in CBRL's earnings.
Strategy Opinion: CBRL is a conservative food stock that is surprising with better profits. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 50 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 38. TTD rates CBRL a good intermediate-term play for a conservative investor.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Meridian Growth Fund with a 3.9% stake. It was a recent seller of 88,300 shares. A key buyer recently was 4-star rated Ridgeworth Small Cap Value Equity Fund which picked up 19,500 shares. CBRL has 22.9 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Very little activity lately. The latest sell was at $38.63. Right now, 11 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. - (CBRL) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 12 | 0 | 2 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CKP - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BGH - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today as stock market moves broadly lower. Bears remain selective. Stock market looks ready to retreat across trading range. TTD's short from Monday was American Superconductor Corp. (AMSC) - 29.29, down 2.21. Today, AMSC has dropped to 27.80. It is working well for bears.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
Palm Inc., based in Sunnyvale, Ca., makes mobile products for individual users and business customers worldwide. Annual revenues: $323 million. PALM's stock falls sharply in heavy trading today. The move undercuts key support near nine. Putting pressure on the stock was a downgrading to underperform by Merrill Lynch & Co. So far today, PALM is trading 18.6 million shares. Its average daily volume is 13.2 million shares. 
TTD highlighted PALM as a short at our midsession show on the Web today.
PALM's stock broke to the downside in the morning. It touched a low of 8.20. It then staged a rally, but late in the morning rolled over again and continued to trend lower through the afternoon.
PALM's tape action shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $9.62 to $8.47. The tape action indicates heavy institutional selling pressure. A key trade took place this afternoon when a big block of 300,000 shares traded at $8.47. That was down sharply from the prior block trade that went off at $8.63.
PALM's products include Palm Pre, Treo and Centro smartphones, as well as software, services and accessories.
The company sells its products in two product lines: smartphones and handheld computers.
PALM’s smartphones provide a range of productivity tools, and personal and entertainment applications.
This fiscal year ending May 30, analysts forecast a loss of 90 cents a share compared with a loss of $2.00 a share a year ago. Merrill's downgrading included concern that sales would be weak.
PALM's daily chart shows the stock acting weak the past few weeks. It was testing support at 9, but today caves in with volume picking up. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is very bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is extremely bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PALM for a decline to 6 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed at 9.10.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
