Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout and Leading Stocks - Tuesday, February 23, 2016 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 22, 2016 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 3
Overall Quality of Breakouts - ABOVE AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Small list of breakouts Tuesday, but some interesting plays. Bulls be selective. Stock market appears vulnerable to the downside.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Bearish
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TXRH - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TXRH, based in Louisville, Ky., operates full-service restaurants. Annual revenues: %1.8 billion. TXRH's stock breaks out Tuesday from five-month flat base. The breakout was triggered by better-than-expected earnings.
TTD featured TXRH as a stock to accumulate on Monday.
The stock was also highlighted by TTD at our midsession video show on the Web.
So far today, TXRH is trading a heavy 5.3 million shares, six times its average daily volume of 942,000 shares.
TXRH's stock broke out in the morning with strong volume. (see 10-minute chart).
The stock reached an intraday peak of 42.13.
The stock then pulled back slightly and trended sideways through most of the afternoon.
Late in the session the stock edged higher. That was good action considering the stock market sold off sharply.
TXRH's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing sharply from $36.95 Monday afternoon to as high as $41.65.
A key block trade came in the morning when a massive block of 173,300 shares crossed the tape at $41.20.
That was up from the prior block trade at $39.66 on 30,786 shares (duplicated).
Then near the close a big block of 64,513 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $41.65.
That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $40.97 on 34,019 shares.
That showed aggressive institutional buying.
TXRH runs the Texas Roadhouse restaurants.
It also provides supervisory and administrative services for other franchise
The company operates 450 restaurants in 49 states, as well as in 4 countries. The restaurants feature informal steak and chicken dishes.
TXRH's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 12% versus an 8% decline by the S&P 500 index.
TXRH's long-term chart shows the stock climbing to 16.05 in 2007. However, the stock got burned during the bear market falling down to 4.09 by late 2008.
However, the stock turned and rallied steadily the past several years participating well in the bull market. The push to a new high is an eightfold move from the bear market low.
TXRH's daily chart shows the stock forming a near-term saucer base.
The breakout is impressive coming with a gap move and expanding volume.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line, which had slipped recently, turns sharply higher.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 22% increase in net to $1.67 a share from$1.37 in 2015.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 24. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Going out to 2017, the Street expects a 13% increase in net to $1.89 a share from the anticipated $1.67 this year.
Quarterly profit growth this year will show an acceleration.
Net for the first quarter is expected to rise 12% to 52 cents a share from 46 the prior year.
The highest estimate is at 54 cents a share.
Net for the second quarter should leap 37% to 41 cents a share from 30 cents a year before.
TXRH does tend to be erratic with its earnings. So, the stock needs to be watched closely.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TXRH for a move to 49 off this breakout.
The stock is a bit extended near-term. So, one can average in. A protective stop can be placed near 37.50.
TTD rates TXRH an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is the 5-star rated VA CollegeAmerica Amcap 529F Fund with a big 6.5% stake. It has held its position steady.
A key fund buyer recently was the 4-star rated Glenmede Small Cap Equity Fund which purchased 75,488 shares. It has a 1.2% stake.
TXRH has 70 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 88% of the stock and insiders have 9%.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Not much activity lately.
Currently, 22 analysts follow the stock, 8 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
TXRH has a book value of $9.38 a share.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Texas Roadhouse Inc. - (TXRH) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BGS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EXLS - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 11
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.
Bear Side - Large list of shorts as stock market turns down sharply. Bears can be venturesome.
TTD's short from the prior session was Calgon Carbon Corp. (CCC) at 14.19. The stock has slipped to 14.13 and is working well for bears.
WLK, based in Houston, Tex., makes basic chemicals, vinyls, polymers, and fabricated building products. Annual revenues: $4.6 billion. WLK's stock falls sharply and undercuts key support Tuesday. The drop was triggered by disappointing earnings.
TTD highlighted WLK as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
So far today, WLK is trading 1.8 million shares. Its average daily volume is 1.3 million shares.
WLK's stock fell sharply in the morning and touched an intraday low around noon at $40.42
The stock then trended sideways the rest of the day unable to mount a rally.
Westlake came in with quarterly net of 84 cents a diluted share. That was below the 99 cents a share expected by analysts.
WLK's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $45.01 in the prior session to as low as $40.80.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 11,524 shares crossed the tape at $42.45.
That was down from the prior block trade at $45.01 on 57,416 shares.
The company operates in two areas olefins and vinyls.
The olefins segment offers ethylene, polyethylene, styrene monomer, and various ethylene co-products, such as chemical grade propylene, crude butadiene, pyrolysis gasoline, and hydrogen.
The vinyls segment provides polyvinyl chloride, vinyl chloride monomer, ethylene dichloride, chlorine, caustic soda, and ethylene.
This year, analysts are forecasting an 8% decline in net to $4.50 a share. Profits for the first quarter should be down 4%.
WLK's daily chart shows the stock trending lower. Then it tried to form a bottom, but is now breaking down.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting WLK for a decline to 35 within the next few months, or sooner.
A protective stop buy can be placed near 43.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WLK - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)