Ticker Tape Digest

Monday - February 25,  2019

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Monday - February 25, 2019

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  10

Quality of Breakouts -  Above Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -   Bulls can be venturesome. There are several good plays.

Stock market  -  Market averages remain bullish in all time zones.

Comment -  TTD sees the market stretched to the upside. So, bulls need to be watchful of the market.

See Latest Earnings Reports -  A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Monday - ETSY, CRI, PLAN, STNE, HDB and PODD.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks near breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.  They can also be bought soon after a follow through move, sometimes on an intraday pullback. )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

ETSY Inc. (ETSY) - 59.01, up 2.34 - Breakpoint 57.97

Net Tops Estimates, TTD Targets 74 

   ETSY, based in Brooklyn, N.Y., provides a marketplace online and offline where people around the world connect to sell and buy goods. Annual revenues: $441 million. ETSY's stock moves sharply higher Monday and breaks out from its three month, cup-and-handle base.

 The move pushes the stock close to its all-time high of 60.58.

  So far today, ETSY is trading 12.7 million shares, five times its average daily volume of 2.7 million shares.

  The breakout was triggered by favorable earnings. TTD highlighted ETSY as a potential breakout on Friday. Monday, it clicks.

  The breakout came near the close Monday. ETSY reported fourth quarter net of 32 cents a share. the Street was expecting 31 cents a share, although there were some analysts as low as 24 cents a share. The 32 cents is up from last year's fourth quarter of 15 cents a share.

  During the day, ETSY trended sideways. After the breakout, the stock pulled back in after-hours trading but then lifted. (see chart)

  So far in after hours trading, ESTY is up $4.19.  

  Tape Action

  ETSY's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $57.55 in the morning to as high as $59.01 near the NYSE close.

 A key bullish trade came near the close when a block of 344,860 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $59.01.

  That was up from the prior block at $58.40 on 93,800 shares.

   Business

  ETSY's community includes Etsy sellers, Etsy buyers, Etsy employees, its partners and investors.

  Its platform connects 1.7 million active sellers and 28.6 million active buyers.

 Etsy sellers range from hobbyists to professional merchants. The system supports artists, makers, designers and collectors from around the world.

The company's seller services include direct checkout, promoted listings, shipping labels and pattern by Etsy.

  Charts

  ETSY's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 170% versus a 1% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $9.40 to $16 a share.

  They were sellers at $50 to $53 a share.

  ETSY's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in May of 2015 at $22.25. The stock, however, fell to an all-time low of $6.04 by early 2016.

  The stock then began to work high. It cleared long-term upside resistance at $20 in late 2017. It then surged to an all-time high of $60.58 earlier this year - just a few weeks ago.

  ETSY's daily chart shows the stock moving higher back November off its earnings report.

  The stock eventually got to around $58 by December.

  It formed a base and broke out in early February on good volume, but then faded back.

 Monday, ETSY drives higher and clears its breakpoint line with strong volume.

  It will be important to see a follow through move.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is now bullish again.

Earnings Outlook

  Analysts are forecasting a 29% increase in net for 2019. They see net at $1.05 a share, up from 82 cents in 2017.

  Profits for the first quarter of 2019 are projected to soar 110% to 21 cents a share from the 10 cents the year before.

  Five analysts follow the stock.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 56.   

Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting ETSY for a move to $74. A protective stop can be placed near $55 after a breakout.

Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bulls.

                                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Extremely Bullish - ETSY scored some big gains off some of its recent breakouts.

Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bullish -  ETSY rose 10 times after the past 13 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Extremely Bullish -  ETSY averaged a gain of 2.7% in March and 12% in April the past several years.

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

 Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  -  Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today -  2

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Only two shorts Monday. Bears be conservative.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Medley LLC (MDLX) - 14.13

Stock Cuts Below Support, TTD Sees Drop to 11

  MDLX, based in New York, is in an investment management firm. It has $4.8 billion under management. MDLX's stock MDLX's stock falls sharply Monday and under cuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, MDLX is trading 73,947 shares, five times its average daily volume is 14,494 shares.

  MDLX's stock fell sharply in the morning and undercut support. The stock continued lower into the final hour.

  Tape Action

  MDLX's tape action shows steady selling pressure.

  The price for the blocks decline from $16 in the morning to as low as $14.10.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 1,600 shares crossed the tape at $15.46.

  That was down from the prior block at $16.03 on 1,000 shares.

  The close near the low of the day is very bearish.

 Business

  MDLX holds $4.8 billion in assets in two firms, Medley Capital Corp. and Sierra Income Corp.

  Earnings:

  Net income and projections were not available.   

Charts:  

  MDLX's daily chart shows the stock breaking down with heavy volume. The stock has been moving lower since it was $24 back in 2018.

  MDLX's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 42% versus a 1% gain for the stock market.   

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MDLX for a decline to $11 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $14.80.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Neutral.  Earnings reports were not available.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Bearish. -   MDLX averaged a decline of 20.4% in February and a gain of 0.5% in March the past several years.

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2019

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

   Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.

  TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.  

 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

 Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)