Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 26, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Monday - February 26, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 17
Quality of Breakouts - Above Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Bullish. Large list of breakouts Monday with some good looking plays for aggressive investors.
Stock market - Bullish. All major averages are bullish in all time zones. However, the daily pattern shows the stock market rallying across a trading zone. One must remain watchful.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NFLX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
NFLX, based in Los Gatos, Ca., is an Internet television network with about 86 million members in over 190 countries. NFLX's stock, a long-term leader, breaks out Wednesday from a 6-week, cup-and-handle base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.
TTD featured NFLX as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.
So far today, NFLX is trading a heavy 10.3 million shares. Its average daily volume is 10.1 million shares.
NFLX will be meeting financial analysts at the Morgan Stanley Tech conference Tuesday morning.
NFLX moved higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint line.
The stock reached an intraday high of $295.64.
The stock then trended sideways the rest of the day holding most of its gain.
Tape Action
NFLX's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $284.83 in the prior session to as high as $295.03 Monday.
A key bullish trade came late on Friday when a block of 176,376 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $285.93 (duplicated).
That was up from the prior block trade at $284.83 on 17,209 shares.
Near the close Monday a block of 199,750 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $294.16.
That was up from the prior block at $293.50 on 120,000 shares. That is bullish.
NFLX Business
NFLX produces viewing for subscribers via television shows and movies. They cover original series, documentaries and feature films.
Members can watch as much as they want, anytime, anywhere, on nearly any Internet-connected screen.
Members can play, pause and resume watching, all without commercials.
NFLX Charts
NFLX's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 105% the past 12-months versus a 17% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were steady buyers recently using stock options that range from $22 to $8927 a share.
They were sellers from $255 to $279 recently.
NFLX's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from around $5 in 2009 to a peak at $43.54 in 2011.
The stock then fell back to $7.54 in 2012. However, since then NFLX has surged steadily higher. It is now at an all-time high.
NFLX's daily chart shows the stock advancing from $200 in December to a peak at $287.
TTD highlighted that breakout.
The stock then put down a short, cup-and-handle base.
The breakout Monday looks solid coming with a pickup in volume.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
NFLX's Earnings
For 2018, analysts are forecasting NFLX's earnings will soar 118% to $2.73 a share from $1.25 a year before.
The stock has a price-earnings ratio of 107. That is high.
However, it is okay given the earnings growth for this year.
Going out to 2019, the Street projects a 55% jump in profits to $4.25 a share from the anticipated $2.73 in 2018.
Quarterly earnings growth should show an acceleration in growth.
Net for the upcoming first quarter is expected to jump 58% to 63 cents a share from 40 cents a year ago.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 65 cents a share.
Earnings report time needs to be watched closely. The company missed the Street consensus estimate the past two out of three quarter.
Profits for the second quarter of 2018 should surge 333% to 65 cents a share from 15 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting NFLX for a move to $340. A protective stop can be placed near $280.
TTD rates NFLX a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish - NFLX has scored some sensational gains after breaking out. The stock is a leader. It has soared from $20 back in 2013 to as high as $294.
Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bullish - NFLX has moved higher 8 out of the past 13 earnings reports where there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Extremely Bullish. - NFLX's seasonal chart shows the stock gaining an average of 5.6% in February the past five years but down 5% in March.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
44% |
1/3/2018 | 203.58 | 294.16 | Still in play |
7% |
10/5/2017 | 190.22 | 202.68 | 10/16/2017 |
12% |
7/18/2017 | 167.34 | 188.54 | 7/21/2017 |
13% |
4/25/2017 | 146.47 | 165.61 | 6/7/2017 |
17% |
12/27/2016 | 126.31 | 148.06 | 3/30/2017 |
47% |
10/3/2016 | 100.16 | 148.06 | 3/30/2017 |
9% |
11/17/2015 | 115.96 | 126.81 | 12/3/2015 |
81% |
4/16/2015 |
69.68 |
126.45 |
8/6/2015 |
89% |
4/17/2013 | 28.37 | 53.67 |
12/20/2013 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Netflix Inc. (NFLX) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - XPO - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MU - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SIRI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MIME - ABOVE AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Below Average
Bear Side - Small list of shorts as stock market rallies strongly. Bears be conservative.
IRIX, based in Mountain View, Ca., makes laser medical products to treat eye problems. Annual revenues: $46.2 million. IRIX's stock falls sharply Monday after the company disclosed it had to recall one of its laser products.
TTD highlighted IRIX as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.
So far today, IRIX is trading 207,575 shares, nine times its average daily volume of 22,000 shares.
IRIX said it recalled its TruFocus LIO Premiere laser indirectd Opthalmoscope.
The company said the recall will impact earnings and sales.
IRIX's stock gapped sharply lower in the morning and touched an intraday low of $5.31.
The stock then bounced back to around $6.16 by noon. It then trended sideways the rest of the day.
Tape Action
IRIX's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $7.11 in the prior session to as low as $5.37.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 5,000 shares crossed the tape at $6.07.
That was down from the prior block trade at $7.11 on 1,500 shares late on Friday.
Business
IRIX makes therapeutic based laser consoles, delivery devices and consumable instrumentation used to treat sight-threatening eye diseases in ophthalmology.
Its ophthalmology products consist of laser consoles, delivery devices and consumable instrumentation, including laser probes.
They are used in treat serious eye diseases such as diabetic retinopathy, glaucoma and age-related macular degeneration.
Earnings:
For 2017, analysts have been forecasting a loss of 91 cents a share compared with a loss of 26 cents the year before.
Looking out to 2018, the Street is predicting a loss of 80 cents a share.
Charts:
IRIX's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower and cutting below key technical support with volume.
IRIX's 12-month performance chart shows the stock dropping 60% versus a gain of 17% for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers at $9.42 to $7.84 a share. Some were buyers using stock options at $3.90 last year.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting IRIX for a decline to $4.80 a share within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $7.10.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bearish. IRIX rose just 3 times after the past 12 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Bearish. IRIX rose an average of 6.3% February, but fell an average of 7.4% in March the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IRIX - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
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TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)