Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 25, 2019 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Tuesday - February 26, 2019
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 6
Quality of Breakouts - Below Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Bulls small list of breakouts and very selective. One should be conservative.
Stock market - Market averages remain bullish in all time sectors.
Comment - TTD suggests some caution. Stock market extended and showing some loss of upside momentum.
See Latest Earnings Reports - A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Tuesday: AZO, CPLG, FCN, SMLP, MNK, JAZZ and REZI.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AZO - AVERAGE |
AZO, based in Memphis, operates stores selling auto replacement parts in the U.S. Annual revenues: $11.2 billion. AZO's stock spikes higher Tuesday and breaks out from a 13-week, cup-and-handle base.
The move carries AZO to a new all-time high. That is bullish.
TTD sees more on the upside.
So far today, AZO is trading 781,446 shares, more than double its average daily volume of 295,000 shares.
TTD highlighted AZO as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
AZO's breakout was triggered by better than expected earnings for the fiscal first quarter ended in November of $13.47 a share. that topped the consensus estimate of $12.21 a share.
AZO gapped higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint zone.
The stock reached an intraday high of $964.39.
It then pulled back and trended sideways the rest of the day holding in a range close to $935.
Tape Action
AZO's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $889 in the prior session to as high as $960 in the morning.
A key bullish trade came near the close when a block of 39,020 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $935.
That was up from the prior block at $933.18 on 1,450 shares.
The strong buying near the close is promising for a follow through move on Wednesday.
Business
AZO operates stores selling auto replacement parts.
The company has 6,088 stores in the U.S., Puerto Rico, Mexico and Brazil.
The stores carry product lines for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light trucks.
AZO's other operating segments include ALLDATA, which produces and sells diagnostic and repair information software used in the auto repair industry.
Charts
AZO's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 30% versus a 1% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $138 to $507 a share. They were sellers at $750 to $888 a share.
AZO's long-term chart shows the stock in a long-term bull market. The stock climbed from $353 in 2012 to a peak near $800 by 2016.
The stock then went into a long-term basing pattern. It has since broken out and now is making new all-time highs.
AZO's daily chart shows the stock climbing from around $700 in October to a peak near $900 by December.
The stock then pulled back and formed a cup-and-handle base.
It had a breakout two weeks ago, but then faded back.
Tuesday's breakout clears all resistance with a gap move and big volume.
It will be important for AZO to show follow through action.
Earnings Outlook
This fiscal year ending in August of 2019 analysts are forecasting a 19% increase in net to $59.66 a share from the $50.34 the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 15. TTD sees that as attractive for value-growth investors.
Looking out to fiscal 2020 ending in August, the Street is predicting a 7% increase in net to $63.73 from the anticipated $59.66 this fiscal year.
Profits for the fiscal second quarter ending in February are expected to be down 4% to $9.97 a share from the $10.38 the year before.
Then in the fiscal third quarter, analysts look for a 10% rise in net to $14.82 a share from the $13.42 the prior year.
AZO has topped the Street consensus estimate 20 out of the past 26 quarters.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AZO for a move to $1,190 within the next few months, or sooner.
A protective stop can be placed near $810.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish - AZO tends to score modest gains off recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.
Probability - Earnings Response - Neutral - AZO rose 5 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Slightly Bearish. - AZO averaged a gain of 1.2% in March but a decline of 3.3% in April the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
12% |
11/8/2018 |
788.14 |
889.34 |
12/12/2018 |
10% |
7/19/2018 |
713.03 |
783 |
9/4/2018 |
29% |
11/17/2017 |
615.94 |
793.80 |
1/19/2018 |
4% |
8/12/2015 |
721.14 |
750.13 |
8/19/2015 |
14% |
10/29/2014 |
544.06 |
621.30 |
12/23/2014 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Autozone Inc. (AZO) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TRI- AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AYX - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MRNA - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SHSP - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 7
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Large list of shorts with several interesting plays for aggressive bears. Several issues break down due to disappointing earnings.
CDEV, based in Denver, produces oil and gas. Annual revenues: $430 million. CDEV's stock falls sharply Tuesday after reporting disappointing earnings. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, CDEV is trading 16.5 million shares, 7 times its average daily volume of 2.4 million shares.
The company came in with fourth quarter net of 12 cents a share. That was below the 16 cents a share projected by the Street.
The stock gapped lower in the morning and cut below key technical support.
The stock touched an intraday low of $9.76 around noon. It then trended mostly sideways the rest of the day.
Tape Action
CDEV's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $12.71 in the prior session to as low as $9.84.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 100,000 shares crossed the tape at $10.20.
That was down from the prior block at $12.71 on 102,607 a shares.
Business
CDEV produces oil and gas. The company develops unconventional oil and liquids-rich natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin.
It has 106 operated producing horizontal wells.
The horizontal wells span an area of approximately 45 miles long by 20 miles wide where it had commercial production in five zones.
Earnings:
This year, analysts have been forecasting a 36% drop in earnings to 50 cents a share from the 79 cents the year before.
Profits for the first quarter are expected to fall 52% to 12 cents a share from the 25 cents the year before.
Charts:
CDEV's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower with big volume. The move resumes the stock's down trend.
CDEV's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 44% versus a 1% gain for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CDEV for a decline to $7.50 within the next few months, or sooner.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response. - Bullish - CDEV rose times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Bearish. - CDEV averaged a decline of 3.5% in March and a decline of 2.8% in April the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CDEV - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.
TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)