By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 7
Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Small list of breakouts today and low quality. Bulls be conservative. Stock market rally runs into selling Friday. Momentum slows.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - KAI - AVERAGE
KAI, based in Westford, Ma., makes papermaking products and building materials. Annual revenues: $402 million. KAI's stock drives sharply higher Friday after the company reported strong fourth quarter earnings. So far today, KAI is trading 142,545 shares, triple its average daily volume of 38,000 shares.
KAI posted fourth quarter net of 81 cents a share, up from 63 cents a year ago. The 81 cents topped the consensus Street estimate of 74 cents a share. The stock responded bullishly to the news.
KAI's stock drove higher in the morning and cut across its breakpoint line.
The stock climbed to an intraday high of 45.95 in the afternoon.
Then late in the session it backed off a bit as the stock market moved lower.
KAI's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $42.04 in the prior session to as high as $45.20 Friday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 1,300 shares crossed the tape at $43.99.
That was up from the prior block at $42.04 on 3,997 shares in the prior session.
KAI is a supplier of products and systems for the global papermaking and paper-recycling industries.
They also make de-inking systems, stock-preparation equipment, water-management systems, and papermaking accessories.
Through its Thermo Fibergen subsidiary, the company also develops composite building materials produced from natural fiber and recycled plastic.
KAI is a public subsidiary of Thermo Electron Corp.
KAI's 3-year performance chart shows the stock appreciating 90% versus a 55% gain for the S&P 500 index.
KAI's long-term chart shows the stock trading around 20 in 2006. It advanced to a peak of 33 in 2007, the top in the prior bull market.
The stock then fell back 6.50 in early 2009 due to the bear market. However, it rallied back to 35 in 2011, pulled back and has come on again hitting an all-time high of 45.95 Friday. That is bullish and could draw in more buying Monday.
KAI's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 36 back in October to a 43 by December.
The stock then put down a flat base.
The breakout Friday shows a good widening of the daily trading spread (range from high to low).
Also, volume expands nicely.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend since October.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 12% increase in KAI's earnings to $3.10 a share from $2.78 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 14. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Going out to 2016, the Street looks for a 16% gain in profits to $3.61 a share from the anticipated $3.10 this year.
Net for the upcoming first quarter should be strong -rising 29% to 58 cents a share from 45 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 74 cents a share. So, some see chances for a big quarter.
KAI has shown a tendency to top consensus estimates (see table).
Looking ahead to the second quarter, analysts look for a 19% rise in profits to 83 cents a share from 70 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: KAI is a small cap play that has good potential to push higher due to its steady earnings growth. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 51 off this breakout.
A protective stop can e placed near 42.
TTD rates KAI an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Brown Advisory Small Cap Fundamental Value Fund with a 3.8% stake. It has kept its position steady.
The 4-star rated JPMorgan US Small Company Inst. Fund was a recent purchaser of 3,000 shares. It has a 0.60% stake.
KAI has 10.9 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 91% of the stock. Insiders have 2%.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were light sellers in February around $41 to $43. They were buyers using stock options at $14.
Currently, 2 analysts follow the stock and both have a buy, the same as three months ago. KAI has a book value of $24.42.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Kadant Inc. - (KAI)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SBAC - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CRI - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GLOB - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GCAP - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 8
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Larger list of shorts Friday. Stock market moves broadly lower after recent rally. Bears can be selective.
WTW, based in Dallas, provides weight management services. Annual revenues: $1.5 billion. WTW's stock falls sharply Friday after the company reported a loss for the fourth quarter. So far today, volume is running at $1.8 million shares, triple its average daily volume of 681,000 shares.
TTD highlighted WTW as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
WTW reported a loss for the fourth quarter of 28 cents a share compared with a profit of 54 cents the year before.
The loss included non-recurring charges of 35 cents a share.
The results disappointed the Street.
WTW's stock fell sharply in the morning hitting an intraday low of 10.90.
The stock then trended mostly sideways the rest of the day unable to rally effectively.
WTW's tape action shows the recent block trades. One can see the price for the blocks falling from $17.60 in the prior session to as low as $11.50 Friday.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 69,887 shares crossed the tape at $14.14. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $17.60 on 56,250 shares.
WTW provides weight management services in North America, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally.
The company sells bars, snacks, cookbooks, food, and restaurant guides with PointsPlus values, Weight Watchers magazines, PointsPlus calculators, and fitness kits, as well as ActiveLink, an activity monitor and Web experience that tracks activity throughout the day.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 29% drop in profits from operations to $1.43 a share from $2.03 in the prior year.
WTW's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower on the reported loss with heavy volume. The stock is extended to the downside near-term. However, the momentum is such that WTW has potential to move even lower. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is strongly bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting WTW for a decline to 9 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 14.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WTW - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD
Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)