Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 25, 2019 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Wednesday - February 27, 2019
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 7
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Bulls be conservative as breakouts are selective.
Stock market - Market averages remain bullish in all time sectors.
Comment - TTD suggests bulls remain alert as upside momentum is slowing.
See Latest Earnings Reports - A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Wednesday - CSGP, GCP and NOVt.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GCP - ABOVE AVERAGE |
GCP, based in Cambridge, Ma., produces specialty construction chemicals, building materials, and packaging sealants and coatings. Annual revenues: $1.1 billion. GCP's stock drives sharply higher Wednesday and breaks out from its 7-month flat base.
The breakout was triggered by favorable earnings
So far today, GCP is trading a heavy 3.7 million shares, 9 times its average daily volume of 390,000 shares.
TTD highlighted GCP as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
GCP's stock spiked higher in the morning to clear its breakpoint line.
The stock then trended sideways the rest of the day.
Tape Action
GCP's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $29.29 in the prior session to as high as $31.15 early in the day.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 50,000 shares crossed the tape at $29.59.
That was up from the prior block at $26.29 on 28,200 shares late on Tuesday.
Near the close a block of 46,385 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $29.79.
That actually came on an up tick sequence from $29.78 on 150 shares.
Business
GPC operates in two units: Specialty construction chemicals and specialty building materials.
The company makes cement and materials based on cement, such as concrete admixtures and cement additives.
The specialty building materials makes building envelope products, residential building products and specialty construction products. Its brands include ADVA, CBA, MIRA, ADPRUFE, DARABLEND and APPERTA.
Charts
GCP's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 3% versus a 2% gain for the stock market.
However, GCP has surged 23% in the past three months.
GCP insiders have been recent buyers at $24 to $26 a share. Using stock options they were buyers at $18.
They have not done much selling lately.
GCP's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in early 2016 at $16.27. The stock climbed to an all-time high of $34.79 in early 2018. It then fell back to $22 late last year. It is now coming on again.
GCP's daily chart shows the stock driving sharply higher to clear its base.
The move comes with big volume.
The stock closed near the upper half of its big move. That is bullish.
GCP's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting a 23% increase in profits to $1.09 a share, although that may get lifted.
The highest year estimate is at $1.18 a share.
Earnings for the seasonally slow first quarter are projected to surge 700% to 8 cents a share from one cent a year ago.
Currently, four analysts follow GCP. TTD has spotted other cement stocks doing well.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting GCP for a move to $36 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near $28.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish - GCP scored some massive gains off some of its recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.
Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bullish - GCP rose 6 times after the past 11 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Extremely Bullish. - GCP averaged a gain of 10.3% in March and a gain of 3.5% in April the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
8% |
12/1/2017 |
31.88 |
34.40 |
1/11/2018 |
16% |
3/2/2017 |
29.19 |
34.05 |
5/5/2017 |
11% |
7/13/2016 |
26.91 |
29.89 |
9/2/2016 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating GCP Applied Technologies Inc. (GCP) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CSGP - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NOVT - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CDNA - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MELI - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 7
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Several short plays that are down due to weak earnings or losses.
ELF, based in Oakland, produces cosmetics. Annual revenues: $270 million. ELF's stock falls below key technical support Wednesday. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, ELF is trading a heavy 3.8 million shares, eight times its average daily volume of 444,000 shares.
The company reported disappointing sales. It also said it will close all of its 21 stores.
TTD highlighted ELF as a short at our midsession video show on the web.
ELF's stock fell sharply and touched an intraday low of $6.70 in the morning.
The stock then trended sideways the rest of the day unable to rally.
Tape Action
ELF's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $9.47 two sessions ago to $6.95.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 5,000 shares crossed the tape at $7.09.
That was down from the prior block at $7.13 on 67,078 shares.
Business
ELF, formerly J.A. Cosmetics Holdings, Inc., provides cosmetics for eyes, lips and face to consumers through e-commerce channels.
The products are used for eyes, such as eyeshadow, eyeliner, mascara and eyelashes, eyebrows, concealer and primer, brushes and tools, and sets and palettes.
The Company offers lipstick, lip gloss, lipliner, and lip care and brushes.
Earnings:
This year, analysts are forecasting a 2% decline in net to 60 cents a share from the anticipated 62 cents the year before.
Net for the first quarter is expected to be flat at 11 cents a share.
Charts:
ELF's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower with big volume. The move resumes the stock's down trend from its all-time high of $32.54 set back in 2016 when it came public.
ELF has fallen 62% versus a gain of 2% for the stock market the past 12 months.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ELF for a decline to $5 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $7.80.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish. - ELF rose 3 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bearish. - ELF averaged a gain of 4.5% in March but a decline of 5.8% in April the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ELF - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.
TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)