Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday, February 28 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 25 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 10
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Good number of breakouts. Quality is spotty. Bulls be selective. Stock market still in a trading range within an up trend.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CLR - ABOVE AVERAGE |
CLR, based in Oklahoma City, produces oil and natural gas. Annual revenues: $2 billion. CLR's stock breaks out today from a five-month, cup-and-handle base. The advance comes with a gap move and expanding volume. It was triggered by a favorable earnings report.
TTD highlighted CLR as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
CLR's 10-minute chart shows the stock spiking higher in the morning and clearing its base. The stock then trended sideways the rest of the day holding the bulk of its gain despite a modest selloff in the market in the afternoon.
CLR reported net for the fourth quarter of $1.19 a share compared with 88 cents a year ago from operations.
The $1.19 topped the consensus estimate of 89 cents a share and also the highest estimate of $1 a share.
TTD has noted when a company can top the highest estimate on the Street for the quarter its stock has potential to move higher over the next few weeks.
That is because analysts have to raise their estimates for the company.
CLR's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $81.94 to a peak of $88.39 in the morning.
A key bullish trade came when a block of 20,822 shares crossed the tape at $88.39. That was up from the prior block trade at $83.86 the day before.
The tape action showed good institutional buying interest.
CLR is a producer of crude-oil and natural gas.
The company has operations in the Rocky Mountain, Mid-Continent and Gulf Coast regions of the U.S.
CLR focuses its operations in large new and developing plays where horizontal drilling, advanced fracture stimulation and enhanced recovery technologies provide the means to economically develop and produce oil and gas reserves from unconventional formations.
CLR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock off slightly compared with an 11% gain for the S&P 500 index. The green bar in August shows heavy insider buying.
CLR's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 18 back in early 2009 to a peak of 90 in early 2012. The stock then went into a long-term consolidation pattern. If CLR can make a new, the stock could draw in more buying interest. It needs to top 90.68.
CLR's daily chart shows the cup-and-handle basing pattern. The stock did attempt a breakout in January, but fell back.
TTD set up a breakpoint zone. The stock gaps over it today with expanding volume.
CLR's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a steady up trend. It shows good underlying buying the past few months.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 47% surge in profits to $4.70 a share from the anticipated $3.20 for 2012. Those estimates will be adjusted after the strong profit report for the fourth quarter. In any case, the Street is expecting a strong year for CLR.
Net for the upcoming first quarter should climb 36% to $1.03 a share from the 76 cents a year ago.
CLR's earnings reports (see table) show the company with a variety of hits and misses. So, one needs to be very watchful of the stock's action.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CLR for a move to 105 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 84. It will be important to see CLR show a follow through move to the upside.
TTD rates CLR most suitable for aggressive investors and a slightly above average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Fidelity Growth Company Fund with a 1% stake. It was a recent buyer of 85,000 shares. Also, 5-star rated Meridian Growth Fund was a recent purchaser of 35,725 shares.
CLR has 185 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold just 21% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders were recent sellers around $73. They have options, but the most recent price is not disclosed. However, going back to last year some had options to buy the stock at 71 cents a share.....yes 71 cents.
Currently 21 analysts follow the stock, 14 have a buy, up from 11 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Continental Resources Inc. - (CLR) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RRC - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CELG - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HD - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HII - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today, but some interesting plays. Bears can be venturesome.
PKT, based in Fremont, Ca., produces software products. Annual revenues: $59 million. PKT' stock falls sharply today after the company reported a sharp drop in earnings for the fourth quarter. So far today, PKT is trading a heavy 3.1 million shares, about ten times its normal daily volume of 330,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted PKT as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
The company reported earnings for the fourth quarter declined to 6 cents a share from 12 cents a year ago.
The Street was expecting net of 14 cents a share for the quarter. So, the 6 cents was a big disappointment and the stock responded by falling sharply in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 11.81 in the morning and then trended sideways the rest of the session.
PKT's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks tumbling from $17.38 to as low as $12. A key bearish block came in the morning when 32,827 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $13.39. That was down sharply from the prior block at $17.29.
PKT produces systems for intelligent network traffic identification, control and service management infrastructure equipment.
Its main product is the PacketLogic line of appliances. They provide accurate application identification by using the industry leading connection identification engine DRDL. PacketLogic is deployed at more than three hundred fifty broadband service providers, Telcos, colleges and universities worldwide.
Analysts are forecasting a 50% drop in PKT's earnings for the first quarter to 4 cents a share from 8 cents a year ago. Overall, they have been expecting a 37% rise in net for the year, but that forecast will be cut.
PKT's daily chart shows the gap drop on big volume today. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong down trend indicating heavy selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PKT for a decline to 8.90 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 12.80.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PKT - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)