Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 26, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Wednesday - February 28, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 9
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Breakout stocks driven by better-than-expected earnings. Aggressive bulls can be venturesome.
Stock market - Daily Dow and S&P bearish now. Daily Nasdaq and other averages and time sectors remain bullish. Stock market remains in a consolidation pattern. Bulls be conservative.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HEI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
HEI, based in Hollywood, Fla., makes jet engines and other aerospace products. Annual revenues: $1.5 billion. HEI's stock surges higher after posting better than expected earnings for the fiscal first quarter ending in January. The move carries the stock out from a six-week cup-and-handle base.
So far today, HEI is trading 716,115 shares, more than double its average daily volume of 279,000 shares.
TTD highlighted HEI as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
HEI reported net for the fiscal first quarter of 45 cents a share beating the consensus of 41 cents a share.
HEI's stock drove higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint line.
The stock reached an intraday peak at $88.73.
Late in the session HEI gave ground as the stock market took a dive.
Tape Action
HEI's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $81.21 in the prior session to as high as $88.34.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 7,993 shares crossed the tape at $84.26. That was up from the prior block the day before at $81.21 on 9,308 shares.
Near the close a block of 27,462 shares crossed the tape at $85.60.
That actually came on an up tick from a prior trade at $85.59 on 100 shares.
Business
HEI makes FAA approved jet engine and aircraft replacement parts.
The company also produces electronic equipment for the aviation, medical, telecom and electronics industries.
It operates through two segments: Flight Support Group and Electronic Technologies Group.
The FSG is made up of HEICO Aerospace Holdings Corp. and HEICO Flight Support Corp.
The FSG unit makes jet engines. The ETG unit makes systems for targeting, tracking, identification and testing.
Charts
HEI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 62% versus a 17% gain for the stock market.
Insiders have not been active this year.
HEI's long-term chart shows the stock making a bottom at $17.51 in 2012. The stock then turned and climbed to $40 by 2014. It then went into a long-term basing pattern.
HEI then broke out in 2016 and has since raced to $85.60. The stock is in a very bullish long-term up trend.
HEI's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $68 in September to $81 by December.
The stock put down a base and broke out in late January but fell back.
The stock regrouped - formed a cup-and-handle base. The breakout Wednesday comes with strong volume.
HEI's CCI momentum indicator is solidly bullish.
Earnings Outlook:
This fiscal year ending in October of 2018 net is expected to rise 21% to $2.04 a share from $1.69 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 40. That is high.
Looking out to fiscal 2019 ending in October net is expected to climb 17% to $2.39 a share from the anticipated $2.04 this year.
Net for the fiscal second quarter ending in April is projected to rise 14% to 48 cents a share from 42 cents the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 53 cents a share. So, some analysts are very bullish.
Going out to the fiscal third quarter ending in July, net is projected to be up 19% to 50 cents a share from 42 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting HEI for a move to $105 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $82.50. TTD rates
HEI an average intermediate-term play.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Modestly Bullish. HEI has tended to score just modest gains off its recent breakouts. However, the stock is in a strong up trend.
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish. HEI rose 8 times after the past 12 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Neutral. HEI rose an average of 2.6% in March but declined an average of 3.2% in April the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
11% |
12/15/17 | 74.91 | 83.72 | 1/29/2018 |
4% |
9/19/2017 | 69.96 | 72.76 | 9/27/2017 |
21% |
7/5/2917 | 59.88 | 72.76 | 9/27/2017 |
6% | 4/27/2017 | 56.36 | 59.82 | 5/23/2017 |
7% | 2/16/2017 | 51.25 | 55.12 | 3/1/2017 |
16% | 11/9/2016 | 44.94 | 52.43 | 12/8/2016 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Heico Corp. (HEI) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BKNG - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VEEV - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TNET - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LIVN - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 12
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Large list of shorts as several stocks get knocked down on poor earnings. Bears can be venturesome. Stock market in a trading range.
ACAD, based in San Diego, is a biotech firm working on treatments for central nervous system disorders. Annual revenues: $17.3 million. ACAD's stock falls sharply after reporting a loss for the fourth quarter. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, ACAD is trading a heavy 11.6 million shares, seven times its average daily volume of 1.5 million shares.
TTD highlighted ACAD as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
ACAD came in with a loss for the fourth quarter of 55 cents a share. The Street was expecting a loss of 57 cents. However, the company's revenues disappointed. Also, there was some heavy selling in biotech ETF's triggered by the drop in Celgene.
ACAD's stock fell in the morning and continued to trend lower through the session. It touched an intraday low of $24.50 in the late afternoon.
Tape Action
ACAD's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $31.83 in the prior session to as low as $24.91.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 34,519 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $27.75.
That was down from the prior block trade at $31.83 on 37,690 shares.
Business
ACAD's lead drug candidate, NUPLAZID (pimavanserin), is used to treat hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis.
The company is conducting a Phase II trial, referred to as the SERENE Study, designed to examine the efficacy and safety of pimavanserin to treat Alzheimer's disease Agitation.
Earnings:
This year, analysts are forecasting a loss of $1.63 a share. Going out to 2019, the Street is predicting a loss of 67 cents a share.
For the upcoming first quarter, analysts look for a loss of 50 cents a share compared with a loss of 72 cents the year before.
Charts:
ACAD's daily chart shows the stock falling from $40 back in October to $27 by November. The stock then firmed and formed a basing pattern. However the stock gaps lower cutting below support with a gap move.
ACAD's 12-month performance chart shows the stock declining 34% versus a gain of 16% for the stock market.
Insiders have been recent buyers using stock options at $1.38 to $8 a share. They have been sellers at $30 to $40 a share.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ACAD for a decline to $20 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near $25.30.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bearish. ACAD rose just 3 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Bullish. ACAD rose an average of 6% in March and 0.7% in April the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ACAD - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.
TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)